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malaise

(268,659 posts)
Wed Oct 19, 2016, 05:28 PM Oct 2016

Meanwhile super-cyclone Haima Slams into Northern Philippines

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3485
<snip>
Still raging at Category 4 strength, Typhoon Haima (dubbed Lawin in the Philippines) was moving into the northern Philippines on Wednesday night local time. As of 9:00 am EDT Wednesday (9:00 pm local time), Haima was located about 235 miles northeast of Manila, moving west-northwest at about 19 mph. Haima became Earth’s seventh Category 5 storm of the year on Tuesday, with top sustained winds peaking at 165 mph and a minimum central pressure estimated at 900 mb by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Interactions with the mountainous island of Luzon have since chipped away at at Haima’s strength. Top sustained winds were down to 120 knots (140 mph) as of 9 am EDT Wednesday. As noted by Jonathan Erdman (weather.com), if Haima makes landfall with sustained winds of at least 113 knots (130 mph), it will be the first Category 4 storm to strike northeast Luzon since Naigae in September 2011.

Haima remained a gigantic and powerful typhoon as it approached Luzon, with hurricane-force winds extending out up to 75 miles from its center and tropical-storm force winds extending up to 235 miles. Fortunately, the winds on the stronger right-hand side of Haima, north of its center, will deliver their greatest punch to a fairly sparsely populated stretch of coastline in far northeast Luzon. A storm surge of up to 10 feet is possible within bays in this region, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration. There are no cities along this coast the size of Tacloban City, where the storm surge associated with Super Typhoon Haiyan killed more than 5000 people in 2013. The largest population center of far northeast Luzon is Tuguegarao City, located in the Cagayan Valley about 25 miles inland and shielded by a coastal range of mountains.

Given the size and strength of Haima, massive amounts of rain (10” - 20”, with higher amounts locally) can be expected over most of the northern half of the island of Luzon. These rains will fall atop ground saturated by the passage of former Category 4 Typhoon Sariki, which makes inland flooding the biggest concern from Haima. After exiting the Philippines, a weakened Haimi will continue northwestward, making landfall on the China coast east of Hong Kong as a tropical storm or perhaps a Category 1 typhoon around Saturday night local time.
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Spare a thought for the folks in the Luzon and give thanks that island is scarcely populated
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