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Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:25 PM

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction

"During the 2012 election, Republicans who hated the daily onslaught of polling showing that Mitt Romney was headed toward a comfortable defeat turned to Dean Chambers, the man who launched the website Unskewed Polls. The poll numbers were wrong, he said, and by tweaking a few things, he could give a more accurate count. His final projection had Romney winning close to all 50 states.

Chambers has wisely abandoned the field of election forecasting, and this year says he thinks the various models predicting a Hillary Clinton victory are probably accurate. The models themselves are pretty confident. HuffPost Pollster is giving Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and The New York Times’ model at The Upshot puts her chances at 85 percent.

There is one outlier, however, that is causing waves of panic among Democrats around the country, and injecting Trump backers with the hope that their guy might pull this thing off after all. Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.

He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”

So who’s right?"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

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Reply Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction (Original post)
uawchild Nov 2016 OP
oscarmadison Nov 2016 #1
regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #2
putitinD Nov 2016 #3
gollygee Nov 2016 #4

Response to uawchild (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:33 PM

1. He's disgraceful!

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Response to oscarmadison (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:43 PM

2. I'm surprised you didn't say "deplorable"…

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:51 PM

3. I think he is on the Trump payroll, he will probably have to sue to get paid.

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:57 PM

4. He's being very conservative but I'm glad

I was worried for a while, when Hillary was polling so far ahead, that democrats wouldn't bother to vote thinking she was safe regardless. Hopefully this will help us get out the vote!

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