Britain facing energy crisis that could see families pay extra to keep the lights on

[FarCenter]

Britain's increasing reliance on "intermittent" renewable energy means that the country is facing an unprecedented supply crisis, a senior Ofgem executive has warned.

Andrew Wright, a senior partner at Ofgem and former interim chief executive, warned that households could be forced to pay extra to keep their lights on while their neighbours “sit in the dark” because “not everyone will be able to use as much as electricity as they want”.

He warned that in future richer customers will be able to “pay for a higher level of reliability” while other households are left without electricity.

Mr Wright said that because Britain has lost fuel capacity because of the closure of coal mines, there is now “much less flexibility” for suppliers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/11/britain-facing-energy-crisis-could-could-see-families-pay-extra/

[LittleBlue]

1. Uh oh

The ultimate weakness of things like solar energy.

[Mika]

2. The ultimate weakness of bad planning and bad efficiencies throughout the system. n/t

[Denzil_DC]

3. Well, the UK's ridiculous stalled nuke programme isn't doing so well either.

Just to put this Ofgem individual's personal words in some context.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station

Flamanville: France's beleaguered forerunner to Hinkley Point C
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/27/flamanville-france-edf-nuclear-reactor-hinkley-point-c
(The French are having enormous problems because of their reliance on nuclear power.)

How much does the Hinkley Point nuclear power station cost compared to wind and solar?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-much-hinkley-point-nuclear-8839460
(Solar actually ranks lowest in terms of strike price. It also doesn't rely on direct sunlight.)

Hinkley Point: Overwhelming majority of British public oppose Theresa May's decision to approve nuclear plant
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hinkley-point-theresa-may-nuclear-power-poll-majority-uk-opposes-plant-edf-china-a7308701.html

The Telegraph article also ignores the international interconnectors used to trade electricity to balance supply and demand.

Here's a real-time readout showing the UK grid's status and the contribution of different forms of energy: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

[FarCenter]

4. From gridwatch, you can see the problem

Currently coal is just under rated load at 7.72 GW, nuclear is at rated load at 7.98 GW, Gas is in the red at 25.25 GW, and wind is rather low at 1.73 GW.

So the grid is running at full generation capacity except for wind and any added load would have to be shed if wind doesn't increase.

[Denzil_DC]

5. Yeah.

The nuke load proportion is high right now. Quite often it's considerably lower, due to maintenance and other glitches. We're increasingly reliant on gas to make up shortfalls. CCGT isn't a bad technology, just not sustainable in the long term. We're currently experiencing low wind speeds across the UK (barely a leaf stirring here today). That's unlikely to last for long, but it doesn't help when it coincides with colder weather (it's actually unseasonably warm at the moment).

Much is made of the need for gas backup to cover the intermittent supply from wind, but the same backup's also needed for nuclear, as that can go offline very unexpectedly and suddenly if there are problems. At least with wind, we can rely on weather forecasting to an extent. Solar is reliable, and as that Gridwatch chart shows, isn't fully accounted for. Even here in Scotland, many homes now have solar arrays.

We have a lot of promising technologies that need more investment. If a fraction of what's been allocated to Hinkley was diverted into tidal stream (we have some interesting projects now coming online), geothermal, offshore wind (expensive now, but there are experimental installations trying to look at ways to bring that down) etc., it would be a much better investment. We should have been doing all this thirty or forty years ago, but y'know, Bush & Co. and the petro-industrial complex and the last round of pooh-poohing of climate change ....

The generation side is only one aspect, of course. We have massive gains to make in terms of conservation and efficiency. If we don't do it voluntarily, it will no doubt be forced on us by events.

This Telegraph article echoes similar warnings from Ofgem, for instance back in 2012, when they were predicting the lights might be going off at times of peak load within three years and prices would rocket. That hasn't happened, but probably more through luck than judgement.

[FarCenter]

6. In Scotland, you are about 15 degrees latitude north of New York, and solar is a little poor

It might be great in the summer, but I'd think your air conditioning load is pretty low. Solar would be pretty weak in the winter. Not sure, but I suspect that it is overcast a lot in the winter. A friend who spent a tour at the sub base in Aberdeen said he never was warm the entire time. But he was from Florida.

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/uk/glasgow

[Denzil_DC]

11. Solar's a useful small-scale local addition.

It's among those initiatives that are better than literally doing nothing.

Compared to Florida, most of northern Europe's going to seem nippy! Aberdeen generally has less cloud cover and is drier than the west of Scotland. It lacks the Gulf Stream, so its climate is more nordic. It also has some tidy storms, which are only going to get worse if the insurance companies' research is to be relied on.

I pin my main hopes on tidal. We have a vast range of tides in the UK and a very involved coastline. It's dependable enough to provide baseload if done on a large enough scale and transmission problems are overcome. Some of the recent projects are very encouraging. It just needs serious investment.

[jpak]

8. Uh oh

The stupid - it burns

[Bucky]

7. Why is a country swimming in North Sea crude having energy shortages?

Oh yeah, the market solves all the problems

[FarCenter]

9. The UK's North Sea fields are declining in production

More could be drilled if prices go up markedly, but the easy oil has been pumped in the UK's fields. The Norwegian areas are in better shape.

[Denzil_DC]

10. Industry insider

"friends of friends" say there's plenty been identified to the west of Shetland yet to come online. Yes, prices will be a deciding factor in when that's exploited. Not that I'm much of a "drill, baby, drill" fan.

The mismanagement of the UK's oil over the years ranks up there with that of nuclear and other energy sources. Most of us look at Norway and weep over what might have been.

[FarCenter]

12. How North Sea oil helped Margaret Thatcher

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0408/How-North-Sea-oil-helped-Margaret-Thatcher

Never credit Virtue with the results of Luck.