Pence will be cast as the next Gerry Ford.

[Tom Rinaldo]

I first posted the text below over two weeks ago, and I think it remains on track. Trump will end up as the fall guy for the negative extremes embraced by the Republican agenda. Pence won't have to do much of the dirty work, Trump will have done it for him. Pence will pose, on the surface, as surprisingly moderate heading in to the 2018 elections. The damage will have already been done. The Pence presidency will be a PR effort to retain as much of the Trump policy legacy as is politically viable while backtracking on some window dressing to position Republicans to retain Congress under his benign (by way of contrast with Trump) rule:

At some point after they get enough out of him, and Trump's approval ratings sink low enough, Republicans will cut Trump loose for a President Pence. They already have enough to impeach him over any time they want. They will spin that they are true patriots, putting the interests of the nation over a president of their own party. They will saddle Trump with the blame for everything that goes wrong in and for America during his administration, and then throw hm overboard. They have to wait long enough before doing so that their own base won't punish them for turning against Trump, but they will pull the trigger then- probably within 6 months the way things are going. Most likely they will depose him on national security grounds. By then Trump will already have signed off on their conservative domestic agenda. Expect Pence to pose as a Gerry Ford after Nixon type figure temperamentally. He will be framed as a calming return to normality. The window dressing will suddenly improve dramatically and America will feel relieved when our VP is elevated to the presidency.

The daily scandal that Trump now throws out is the perfect set up to normalize the rule of a President Pence, by way of contrast, after he takes power. When asked what took them so long to deal with a rabid Trump presidency that they in fact enabled, Congressional Republicans will cite a respect for the will of an electorate that chose Donald Trump to be President. After the fact they will claim that they were always keeping a keen eye on Trump and were preparing to defend our Constitutional Republic from him if need be. I think they may be able to pull it off by claiming to still support whatever elements of Trumpism haven't by then been fully discredited (coupled with standard conservative "values&quot with a new improved figure head President who we will be told was a crucial behind the scenes leader in successfully navigating us away from the Trump disaster.

But Republicans can't escape political blame for the pain they will inflict on millions of people whose fundamental survival may depend on how Republicans deal with health care. Their zeal to repeal Obamacare predates the rise of Trump, his downfall will not provide them with a convenient scapegoat after the fact IF we make sure that the blame stays pinned on them now. Whether or not Democrats can retake one or both houses of congress in 2018, I think, may rest on this after Republicans help clean the White House of Donald Trump and try to take credit for that.

Democrats must continue to show that Congressional Republicans are willingly and knowingly playing with our lives if they move to dismantle the Affordable Care Act and the protections (and affordability) it now provides to lower and true middle income Americans - many of whom provided the critical votes Republicans needed last November to win a narrow electoral college majority to install a President wiling to sign off on their legislative agenda. Our problem is that with all of the ongoing pyrotechnics of a Trump presidency, it is hard to not keep all eyes riveted on him while we respond to the latest explosion, and not on Congress where the more garden variety work of the plutocracy is steadily advancing. Can we both forcefully resist Trump and keep a spotlight on Republicans in Congress? Much rides on our ability to do so.

[Cosmocat]

1. You absolutely see the right and their media whores covering their bets

by treating Pence with kids gloves ...

These assholes are nothing if not consistent and obvious.

[NCTraveler]

2. I think you make an excellent conceptual point.

I'm still not sure it would work like that.

Impeachment will not happen quickly. As it happens, they will lose clout. Massive amounts. There is also opposition. It's not just Republicans. Democrats will work to tie Pence to Trump, even if it is not to remove Pence. Say this happens at the end of Trumps second year. The impeachment itself will most likely take months. During which time Pence will be trashed thoroughly. Please remember, there is an opposition party, not just the Republicans. As Trump is on his way out the door we will already be into the primary, where Republicans will have an opponent, and will then soon move into the General. This isn't as cut and dry as some want to think. I believe what you say is excellent conceptually, but will not bare out in reality.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. I think it's their game plan

Clearly there are ways to counter it also. But we should be prepared

[NCTraveler]

7. Agree about the counter part and it will happen.

I don't see Pence making his way through this unscathed. Last nights report with Lester Holt really put Pence in a bad light. Made him look like a fool.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. A couple of points...

Gerald Ford was a fundamentally decent man. Mike Pence is a fundamentally decent man said no person ever. Drumpf and Drumpfism will always command twenty five percent or so of the electorate. If the GOP throws their savior under the bus they will rebel.

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. It would take fuly exposing Trump as acting as a Russian agent

Not just sympathetic toward Russia, but being controlled by Russia. If Republicans have the goods on him, solid proof that they will only reveal when it suits them, they can demoralize some of Trumps rabid followers and thus survive dumping him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Maybe, but it's not fair to compare Ford and Pence. The former was a good guy.

-He wrote an amicus brief for his alma mater, the University of Michigan , in its defense of its affirmative action program before the Supreme Court.

-He refused to stay at a hotel which barred a black teammate when he played for the University of Michigan.

-He won a Profile In Courage award for his controversial pardon of Richard Nixon which might have cost him the White House. I know it's controversial around here but it wasn't too controversial for the John F Kennedy Library Foundation

-During the Lewinsky brouhaha he implored the GOP Congress to censure Bill Clinton and then leave him alone.

-He was pro E R A and pro choice. Given his career arc he would be pro glbtq rights if he was alive today.


Hell, given his career arc the Deplorables would have despised him.

[Tom Rinaldo]

34. Ford was a good guy and Pence is not. The comparison is the one that Pence will want made

I do not equate them in the slightest. I expect that Pence will pose at being a Ford, not that he will truly be like Ford. That is the image Pence will attempt to covey - that is the template for a Republican Vice President succeeding a disgraced Republican President in office. Ford came fairly close to actually winning the next presidential election after virtually the entire Republican regime he inherited fell into disgrace. Pence will study that model and attempt to mimic it

In the case of Ford, he was a genuinely likable person, but after the unsettling nightmare of the Watergate crisis most of the American public were predisposed toward wanting him to succeed in putting our nation back on track even before he earned their trust. That is the sentiment that I believe Pence will try pulling for. Like I wrote elsewhere on this thread, the immediate goal is the 2018 midterms, not the 2020 presidential election. Pence doesn't have to pull off a miracle and actually become broadly popular upon taking office. He just has to stem Republican bleeding enough for them to hold onto a few seats in Congress, that now skew Republican as it is, for them to retain control of majorities in both houses for an additional two years.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Ford was also careful to never vouch for Nixon's character. Pence has shown no such constraint.

[Orrex]

4. Well, that'll give Chevy Chase something to do, at least.

Hardy har har.


Terrific analysis, by the way.

[Coventina]

5. That's why proof must be gathered that he is guilty in this as well.

Pence wants to install a theocracy. He frightens me just as much as Trump, but in different ways.

[Mendocino]

8. Under this scenario,

Last edited Wed Feb 15, 2017, 12:09 PM - Edit history (1)

does Pence go full Ford and pardon/commute any crimes of Trump? Many pin Ford's loss in 76 to his pardon of Nixon. Does Pence then risk his future chances?

[NCTraveler]

9. You might find this interesting.

"Personally, I don’t think we’re at a Bonhoeffer moment or a Benedict moment. I think we’re approaching a Ford moment."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/opinion/how-should-one-resist-the-trump-administration.html?_r=0

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. Just got time to read it. Very interesting, Thanks

It's an impressive piece, I think, because Brooks describes the two scenarios he finds less likely, what he calls possible Bonhoeffer Benedict moments, as compellingly as he describes his Ford moment (a route to healing). What he doesn't say is what happens if the Trump regime implodes under incompetency as he expects, but there is no "Ford" to begin the healing? I fear that Pence will model his public persona after how Ford followed Nixon, but like others on this thread have pointed out, scratch the surface faintly and it's obvious Pence ain't no Ford.

Meanwhile it's pretty damn unsettling that the other possible scenarios that Brooks lays out actually are plausible.

[tparrett62]

10. Ford wasn't Nixon's VP when the break-in took place

Agnew stuck around until 1973, so Ford came in unsullied by that mess. Pence will have no such claim to immunity, whether it's true or not. Pence will be forever tied to Trump.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. And Ford was careful to never vouch for Nixon's character. /nt

[Orsino]

37. But Pence will be pardoning Trump.

No way Trump gives up the aegis of Executive Privilege without the spiffiest of guarantees.

I've said for two years that Trump would quit, but I keep being wrong. Now I'm finding it difficult to see how he saves enough face to accept any resignation deal.

[dalton99a]

11. Yep, they're trying to present him as some kind of clean upstanding guy.

[sunonmars]

12. 2018...not even sure he'll make it out of 2017

[Hortensis]

14. How WOULD they sell Pence as a moderate, though,

after he was complicit in four years of dismantling the government safety net programs, healthcare delivery programs (including Medicare and the VA if they can--they are COMMITTED to this, ideologically and otherwise), and educational systems that served America well through most of the 20th Century?

The progressive "New Deal" era from the 1930s to the late 1970s when reaganism hooked up that giant vacuum is going to start looking like America's true golden era before too long.

Not saying they won't try, or that, out of a sick degree of hyperpartisanship, most conservatives won't still oppose all policies and all candidates offered by the Democratic Party, but...

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Two ways primarily

One will be temperament. Impeachment will be a very wild and traumatizing ride. Trump will be a raving wild man by the time it is over, Pence is quite good at sounding soothing. Unlike Trump, he is willing to make unifying noises A lot of people in the center will want all the turmoil to end, they will emotionally root for Pence to pull us together again.

On policy, Pence will not need to spearhead any new divisive initiatives if Republicans already managed to ram them all through under Trump. Beyond that, after 90 degree hard right turn under Trump, Pence could seduce some people by softening that turn by about ten degrees in a few areas. He could make a few tiny mostly symbolic changes to Trump's immigration policy. He could restore about 8% of the protections stripped away by the EPA under Trump. Same in some other areas. Pence wouldn't have to give back much to the center to win some praise for moderation, and the Right will still be light years ahead from where they started before Trump took office. The motivation for softening a tiny bit at the edges will be to retain full control of Congress in the midterms.

[Hortensis]

21. I think you're overestimating his ability to keep

that shining white cap of his from being splattered with the mud that's going to be covering almost everyone other Republican in DC, certainly everyone around him. Plus, Pence is a true believer religious extremist and authoritarian follower. He won't waste this opportunity. He'll be right in the middle of remodeling the nation to his god's and Charles Koch's specs.

[Tom Rinaldo]

26. If he is clever (and I don't put that past him)

He will keep his hyper Christianity agenda a bit muted till after the mid terms. Unlike Trump, the religious Right trusts Pence - he doesn't need to constantly reassure them that he is on their side. Again, the first part of my prediction is that the Republicans won't throw Trump to the wolves until after he has delivered on their full agenda for him - so the fundies etc will already have much to celebrate before Pence even takes office. His first task upon taking office will be to make sure that Republicans retain control over all three branches of government unbroken through 2020. I think he'll try acting however he must for a year or so to get through. Below the surface though the various executive branch agencies will still be dismantling our protections quietly through the night.

[Hortensis]

27. Possibly. This is a new situation. And his sponsoring an

anti-abortion bill this year that was so extreme even many pro-life Republicans opposed it didn't seem to clever--but it didn't keep him from becoming VP as it turned out, in this crazy election may even have helped.

But, most important, these people can't be sure they'll still have the power in two years. I suspect they'll try to do as much as possible while they can, a balancing act. And one way Pence may not be so clever -- he thinks his god has helped enable his victories so far and will continue to.

[UTUSN]

15. Us geezers who remember Tricky Dick's downfall have had flashbacks all along, but here is

Here is the FORD/PENCE enhanced parallel: When PENCE issues a Pardon to DRUMPF, it will be the biggest, GOLD PLATED license ever!1 Not just get-out-of-jail-free, but license to Brand the world!1

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. Busy work day for me today. Thanks for the replies, I'll read responses later

I'm out most of the day but I'll check in when I'm back.

[DFW]

18. The trouble is that Pence is NOTHING like Gerry Ford

Gerry Ford actually meant well. Pence is the Prince of Darkness by comparison, and about as well-intentioned.

Pence taking over from Trump would be like Uday and Qusay taking over from Saddam.

[TexasBushwhacker]

19. I agree. And Nixon's crime was asking for the stupid Watergate break in

A crime for sure, but nothing remotely close to colluding with an antagonistic foreign government to throw an election. Not even close.

[Kimchijeon]

23. That's what gets me... Seems Trump is guilty of so much worse than Nixon

And it's like everyone knows, but the crooks are still boldly like "Yeah, we know you know, we don't give a fuck"

Because well let's face it, they know they can get away with whatever they want, and they are just taking advantage of it.
Sigh.

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. Pence is good at surface fake sincerity. He's soft spoken, has a calming demeanor

His immediate task won't be winning a presidential election, it will be helping to hold onto a few Republican seats in the House and Senate to get past the midterms with majorities intact in Congress. The Senate races in 2018 start out slanted heavily toward the Republicans advantage. In the House Republicans are occupying gerrymandered seats. I don't think Pence could win a presidential race in 2018, but he doesn't have to.

I think we can beat this strategy - but it will be easier if we keep attacking the entire Republican Party now and not stay almost exclusively focused on Trump

[DFW]

24. I quite agree

I get the distinct impression that Trump was the straw man they needed, and that Pence was the tool they wanted, but never could have elected. Trump must be every bit as uncomfortable to them as he appears to be, and Pence must be every bit as acceptable to them as Cheney would have been (minus the string-pulling that Cheney was so masterful at).

Kicking Trump at this point should be left to Late Night talk shows, Rachel Maddow and the editorial pages. The top of the news hours and the front pages should be devoted to what a disaster the Republican Party as a whole has been. Without that, the current Congressional imbalances remain or get worse, and the Supreme Court will become a new Scalia Court that will outlive many of us.

[TeamPooka]

20. He would have to go against his own instincts and govern towards the middle, which he can't do...

not capable of.
So the marching in the street against GOP extremism will persist.

[eleny]

25. Do you think Trump would try to drag Pence down with him? Trump lives for the pay back

I can see that scenario playing out. Trump could tarnish Pence mightily by making the case that Pence knew about the Russian connection all along. How could Pence be so close to the administration for the year of the campaign and not smell the stench of treason?

And if Pence didn't know then he has to be willfully ignorant, a bumpkin who won't be a trusted president.

No matter what, Pence would enter office in a weakened position. If the public plays it right, Pence would be in for a pail of whoop-ass from day one. Because of this Russian deal and because he's a dangerous actor on the policy stage.

Just my random thoughts on the possible scenarios. I think you're following the trail of Republican thinking. They had to be planning something for the survival of their power since Trump is off his rocker. As a party they've been here before. I couldn't help but go to Act 2 of this play.

[enid602]

28. to paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen

And you, Sir . . . are no Gerry Ford.

[JCMach1]

29. ummmm, Ford was likeable

[Solly Mack]

30. He might want to invest in protective gear then.

Knee and elbow pads, perhaps a helmet.

[BeckyDem]

36. I think what you say is accurate about the players and their motives. I think Pence is more

the danger as a president in many ways. But if and when they go after Trump, the Republicans and the intelligence agencies likely fear him too for different reasons. He would be more likely to tell their secrets than any other president in modern history so I suspect they'll consider that in their political calculations.