It's going to pass......JMHO.

[a kennedy]

[beachbum bob]

1. The house...No chance in Senate

[emulatorloo]

3. I think 'Freedom' Caucus will kill it in the House. They hate Ryan.

They hate Ryan and would love to embarrass him. Plus they don't think it is cruel enough.

[sarcasmo]

17. Agreed. The Koch brothers want deeper cuts.

[pangaia]

34. It is like, who could possible be worse that Mao? ..

His wife.

[BannonsLiver]

49. Rough times we live in

When a blatantly un American, cruel and regressive piece of legislation is pilloried by some in congress because it's NOT CRUEL ENOUGH. Why don't they just bring back the work houses and debtor prisons and get it over with.

[NewRedDawn]

23. I hope you are right

but i am not confident. Way I understand they need only 50 votes + Peckerhead Pence. Not the 60 required . Through reconcilliation.
Only moderate pukes who said no was Collins, Gardner. Paul, Lee, & Cruz want to go even farther & make it even worse. So who knows?

[beachbum bob]

66. 2018 is the fixer....and conservatives pissing off 100 million voters will have repurcussions

[Maru Kitteh]

2. Ryan just ran away from the microphone like it was an open flame and just he farted

He doesn't have the vote.

If he did, he would be crowing for the next 15 minutes.

[a kennedy]

5. I so hope you are right.

[Maru Kitteh]

68. Rejoice :-)

That sucka is DEAD!

[brush]

10. Turns out Ryan is just an empty suit and not the numbers expert policy wonk...

they've been selling him as since before he ran with Romney.

The way he cobbled together this piece of shit, cruel bill that nobody likes in just a few weeks after railing against the ACA, with the rest of the repugs is pitiful.

He, the alleged policy wonk, had seven years to come up with a viable bill and this is what he comes up with. Something that can't even get passed within his own caucus. And he was supposed to be the smart one.

[Maru Kitteh]

16. Well, they never had any plan to begin with. Not beyond the repeal they passed because

they knew it didn't matter at all and they would never have to face any consequences.

To be fair to Ryan, they asked him to do in 2 weeks alone what Obama spent a year doing with the help of Congress, Senate, the public and major stakeholders. What did they expect? I think the WH and most of the pukes already knew repealing the ACA was a mirage to begin with, and the WH has been anxious to hang it around somebody else's neck from the beginning. Who better than Ryan? They already hate him.

Trump is in way over his head. Doesn't realize he's about to become the quickest lame duck in history.

[Ms. Toad]

18. Two weeks - B.S.

They've been salivating over this for years. There is no excuse for them not having a fully formed and vetted plan in their back pockets the day Trump took office

[Maru Kitteh]

27. Just because they had time and said they wanted to do it

doesn't mean they really ever wanted to actually do it. They just need to look like they want to do it.

Dogs caught the bus.

They know damn well the news reports would fill up with people who were in the middle of chemo who lost their insurance and now face death, of women 7mos pregnant women facing complicated delivery with no coverage, of people who were involved in car accidents the day after their ACA coverage was dropped.

They like their cushy jobs. They can read polls.

[Ms. Toad]

29. I was responding to your "to be fair" comment.

they had years, not 2 weeks, so there's no reason "to be fair" about how long they chose to spend on it - as if they could not have made the choice to spend many times what Obama spent on it (and still have a vote ready for today).

[Maru Kitteh]

57. This congress, this administration, are new.

You have to put bills together with those who will be voting on them. Unless your only intention is showboating, you have to work with the President who will sign it. You craft legislation to react to current circumstances and base your arguments on current information.

Sure they had 7 years to come up with a basic outline, but that basic outline has to change with every new congress and shifting political winds and realities. No matter how much time they had before the clock began on the 115th Congress, they had to write the bill in this time. If they truly wanted it to work, they had to bring in the stakeholders, they had to get popular support, they had to spend the time to gather a coalition. If they were serious, they would spend a year on it, or even 3 or 4 months on it.

Dogs caught the bus.

[Ms. Toad]

61. That's not exactly how it works.

Nearly verbatim bills are introduced all of the time, when a term of Congress ends before a bill is passed. Yes, the has to be reintroduced anew, wiht each new Congress, but they do not have to (nor do they) start from scratch every time they reintroduce a bill that dies on the vine at the end of each term.

There is absolutely no reason the republicans who have been voting to repeal it over and over again could not have had the bulk of it drafted at some point during the past 7 years.

I do agree that whether they started years ago - or are starting now - it is stupid to slap something together.

[Maru Kitteh]

63. That goes right back to my point that the only thing they did put together

was a bill they knew had no consequences and would never be signed.

I know how it works. Not m' first rodeo. [font size 9]🤠[/font]

Even if they had a basic bill written; if they actually meant for it to pass, they would still need to tweak it to the demographics of present Congress and Senate, they would still have to square it with the agenda of the current executive, and they would still need to bring in the stakeholders and work on building popular support.

They didn't do nada of that.

In all fairness, Ryan did not have (or take) the necessary time to write, lobby and build the support needed for a bill on something as complex and embedded to our economy as healthcare. If they/he really wanted it to pass, if the WH really cared about it passing, they would most certainly allot time to do what was needed to ensure success.

My take? Neither of them (WH or Ryan) were really serious about repealing the ACA. I really think they each believed they could unload that yoke on the other. Although Ryan would undoubtedly prefer to see it die in the Senate, he's repeatedly touted the involvement of Trump. Now they both look lame, reckless, hapless, weak. It appears to be an instance of mutual self-immolation.

It warms the cockles of my heart.

[Ms. Toad]

74. This is a repeat of what started thsi conversation.

In all fairness, Ryan did not have (or take) the necessary time to write, lobby and build the support needed for a bill on something as complex and embedded to our economy as healthcare. If they/he really wanted it to pass, if the WH really cared about it passing, they would most certainly allot time to do what was needed to ensure success.

Ryan did not fall of the turnip truck 2 weeks ago, or even on election day - nor did most of his fellow republican congresscritters.

Bills informally carry forward in substance, and sponsors, from prior incarnations - so there is no need to extend fairness to him because he didn't have long enough to draft the bill. He, and his fellow Republicans had 7 years, not 2 weeks, to write it.

I'm on the governing body for a national lobbying group - and the idea of starting from scratch with each new Congress does not match with my experience.

[brush]

67. I'm not letting Ryan off that easy. He's been speaker for at least a year and an advocate...

for repealing the ACA for much longer. Why hasn't he at least had his staff working on a replacement all the time he's been championing repeal and replace?

He's just another white guy who's never held a job outside government and has been continually kicked upstairs off a false reputation as a policy wonk. Remember his famed Ryan budget that he pushed for years? That was another pos that the nunbers never added up as well.

He stood before the cameras, what was it, just last week, in an almost orgasmic state, holding up a copy of that crappy AHCA and gushing how this is what he had been dreaming about for years, that repealing and replacing the ACA was finally within reach.

The fact that the cobbled together pos bill was going to snatch health care from millions didn't bother his phony ass at all. All that was important was that a nearly trillion dollar tax cut to his rich clients was written into it.

[Maru Kitteh]

69. Of course he was excited!

He can use this bill for his campaign commercials & fundraisers, just like he did that last one. It's all good for him. Sure, it would have been better to have it die in the Senate, but he can still say "blah blah I proposed a comprehensive answer blah blah blah whatever."

I still don't think he ever expected it to become law. He's not a moron (unfortunately). He knows it would take much more than a couple weeks and a bill he pulled out of a KrackerJack box to actually pass something.

He wanted to weaken Trump, and he did.


All this being said, I don't doubt for one single second that given his druthers, Paul Ryan would yank healthcare away from every single person - elderly, babies, disabled, poor, women, men, children - every last one who relies upon a single federal dollar for care; and watch them die with that deplorable smirk on his face.

But the man knows what the score is. He knows what is politically possible, and what is strategically beneficial to his own self-interest. Paul Ryan is one calculating, patient motherfucker; and he wants more.

[brush]

70. We'll see. I don't share your opinion of him. Why put your rep behind a bill that's doomed...

if you're so smart?

[Maru Kitteh]

71. I think he did it to weaken Trump, and it worked.

Trump was dumb enough to fall for it. Trump and his whole staff are on video with their hair on fire, saying over and over, it has to be done right now, and Trump campaigned on this and he's fulfilling his campaign promise, and Trump is convincing more people every day by just being in a room with them, they're just lining up to vote yes!

This was hyped again and again and again, not just by the media, but by Trump's own people as a great test of his super-human awesome magical "deal-maker" skills.

It exposed Trump as a lightweight, a novice, and the total fraud that he is.

[brush]

72. It weakened trump all right, but it also weakened him. That can't be clearer.

Last edited Fri Mar 24, 2017, 04:34 PM - Edit history (1)

[Maru Kitteh]

73. I'll concede that it's not good at all for him in the short term. I think

it will not be as damaging to him in the long term as it is for Trump. I think this is a devastating blow to that crop of amateurs.

I guess time will tell!

[lapucelle]

33. He sounded like he was going to cry.

[Maru Kitteh]

60. LOL. That was the worst fucking beard I've ever seen.

He should grow it again.

[Ken Burch]

4. What makes you say that?

n/t.

[a kennedy]

7. Ah, they have all said repeal and replace FOR 7 YEARS.....this vote will

bring them all together to defeat Obamacare and then can say they've done it. and again JMHO. The arm and ball twisting will make it so.

[rzemanfl]

6. There was no tea party then and Bush was an idiot, but not a Russian-backed idiot.

I could be wrong, but I think this is going to be different.

[GulfCoast66]

8. If they had the votes

They would be voting as I type.

Maybe overnight they get them. I don't know.

[joshcryer]

9. The problem is if they change it to something unquestionably worse...

...then it's on them. So they will keep it and try to blame Obama for it as long as they can. They will do everything in their power to neuter the HHS and try to keep Obamacare from working. But actually repealing it requires fortitude that they have never had.

[cwydro]

11. I have the same awful feeling.

I hope we're both wrong.

[adigal]

12. I agree...they have no choice, will all do trump's bidding

The good thing is we can hang this around their necks. We will get House and Senate back in 2018. But that's a long time if you have no healthcare.

[Skittles]

44. they DO have a choice

to put either party or country first

too many FUCKING COWARDS in the GOP

[mvd]

13. I don't think so

Both the No Freedom Caucus and the more moderate members won't change overnight.

[Equinox Moon]

14. Why are you so convinced?

None of the reports are saying it will pass.

Hey, I need to ask. What is "JMHO" ?

[a kennedy]

22. JMHO.....just my humble opinion...eom

[Recursion]

15. My money is on an embarrassing no vote tomorrow

Trump is pressuring Ryan to vote tomorrow but Ryan wants the weekend to whip this.

I don't think they can flip enough Freedom caucusers, and they've already lost four moderates today.

[Raine1967]

35. I agree w/this.

Still not sure why Ryan caved so quickly on 45's demand for a vote.

[Recursion]

38. Because Ryan has exactly zero friends right now

It's not really his call anymore

[rufus dog]

19. Doesn't matter

Anything they shit together to get enough votes will fail in the Senate.

[NewRedDawn]

28. Please tell me why it will not make the Senate?

They only need 50 votes + Pecker head Pence. I am scared to death this travesty will pass. Please tell me I'm wrong. The wife & I are on expanded medicaid & she is a bad diabetic.

[rufus dog]

30. The plans are too extreme for the Senate to pass

They will also need to get 60 votes.

[NewRedDawn]

36. I heard they dont need 60

Because of reconcilliation only 50 + Pence. There is only 2 moderate Pukes that I know of left in senate. That be Collins & Gardner. Who else? If 60, then yes it will fail, but i heard otherwise.

[rufus dog]

40. They are going to try to go with budget recon

won't pass the muster. If it does they will have blown up the Senate for a failed bill.

I know it is hard based on your situation, but try not to lose too much sleep. This is the effort of an undisciplined party with a complete moron leading the pack.

[regnaD kciN]

37. No, they don't...

...under budget-reconciliation rules, it cannot be filibustered, and only needs a simple majority.

[NewRedDawn]

46. I was right. Only 50 votes if parliamentarian agrres

Just found this from CNBC: GOP leaders are trying to kill and replace several major parts of Obamacare through the process known as budget reconciliation.

If the Senate parliamentarian agrees that the bill qualifies for that process because it is budget-specific, Republicans would need just 50 votes in the Senate, where they hold 52 seats, to pass the proposal.

[stopbush]

56. There are already a dozen R Senators against the House bill, and those

Last edited Fri Mar 24, 2017, 01:34 AM - Edit history (1)

are moderates who will be even more against it if it passes the House in a version that strips out essentials. The more radically right the bill becomes, the more R Senators will be against it.

[a kennedy]

43. I don't want it to even get to the Senate........screw em. No vote tomorrow......eom

[bdamomma]

20. I hope between now and what tomorrow

I want to see Ryan fail so bad.

[alwaysinflux]

21. I think Nancy pelosi

Might've made a mistake by ridiculing Trump. He must be livid and you know how he is. There will be retribution.

[a kennedy]

24. Yah, I wish she would't have said that...... eom.

[Skittles]

45. LOL, are you for real?

THERE IS NO LOGICAL RESPONSE TO TRUMP BULLSHIT BUT RIDICULE

THE MAN IS *RIDICULOUS*

[truebluegreen]

62. Disagree.

Her needling should set him off and chances are he will tweet madly / make an ass of himself in public AGAIN / further damage his credibility etc etc

You know he called them in for a stern warning the other day...and went from 17 No votes to 27? Quite the little stubby-fingered deal maker, isn't he?

The Russia brouhaha blowing up right now is good too, and as his approval ratings sink so does his clout. Plus for those who can reason their way out of a box, that 17% approval rating for the bill must be a bit daunting.

We'll see I guess.

[Grassy Knoll]

25. House, Meh...Senate, DOA

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

26. Doubtful.

[MontanaMama]

31. Doubtful it'll fail in the house

Or the senate? I'm not being snarky, VO, I read a lot of your posts and value your opinion.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

47. Thx. From what I'm seeing on my teevee, I'm thinking it will fail.

Trump just threw Ryan under the bus, and there might be less enthusiasm to go along with his demands that they vote yes or else.

[MontanaMama]

50. Got it.

From your lips to the ears of the universe. This is scary shit in my book. I hope this isn't a re-hash of the night before the election when we all thought we'd see an HRC landslide and then the bottom dropped out of our world.



*edited for typo

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

51. It still has to get through the Senate, which seems even more doubtful.

[MontanaMama]

55. Yes. My fear is that

Rethugs tend to fall in line when it matters most.

[Kath2]

58. Me, too.

What a horrible, horrible night that was.

[Lucinda]

32. If they do pass it, they will be decimated in 2018. The public does not want this

and that includes the GOP public...

[regnaD kciN]

39. Which means we'll get, at best, a Democratic Congress...

...whose proposals to clean up this mess will be vetoed by Trump.

And any future health-care measures will require 60 votes in the Senate. Remember what a struggle it was to even get the ACA passed with a filibuster-proof majority?

[Lucinda]

42. If we gain a house majority, Trump will be gone shortly after n/t

[riversedge]

41. I think Repugs will cave and vote AYE. It is what they do.

[MontanaMama]

52. Sigh.

I tend to agree. I hope that Ryan is pissing down his leg in the interim, however.

[brooklynite]

48. Based on an analysis like that, how could I dispute it?

[still_one]

53. I hope you are wrong, but I suspect you are right

[Cha]

64. Obama breaks silence to slam GOP health repeal and rally the resistance

Link to tweet

[still_one]

65. I am hoping. Thanks Cha

[Thomas Hurt]

54. Arguably the GOP is screwed whether they pass something on not.

[a kennedy]

59. YES...... now, I hope it'll become a battle cry for the Dems in 2018 AND 2020......eom

[Catherine Vincent]

75. :)

[a kennedy]

76. Yeehaaa.....so happy to be wrong.....