What should be done with Automation taking more and more human jobs

[Le Gaucher]

You heard that right - it's not Mexicans or H1-B visas .. but Automation is going to change things in a big way ..

I have seen demos AI can now listen in on phone conversations and dynamically refresh sales script /offers between phone rep and customers .. and we are probably a decade away where all customer service will be replaced by robots.

Robots will drive our cars .. heck it will be the car .. which will be a subscription service . My daughter will most likely never need to take a driving test.

Even creative endeavors like music composition could be automated.

For most of the time since the dawn of industrialization​ - people have been fretting about loss of jobs .. but this time the shit maybe getting real ..

There is no industry on the horizon that will require massive labor..

To survive in the future you need to own/operate in the realm of one or more of

1) Capital
2) Data
4) Algorithms that get to operate on valuable data.

What should the rest do? Should Government simply provide a salary to all the citizens that will cover basic needs through a tax on the Uber Wealthy?

Trust me , in the not so distant future - this will not be a hypothetical question.

[Major Nikon]

1. Productivity will always keep getting better

The same problems were faced with the tractor and the assembly line. The challenge is and always will be how to distribute the gains of that productivity.

[DetlefK]

53. Robots aren't tools. Robots are slave-workers.

No matter how advanced the tool, you still need a worker to operate it.
Automatization isn't replacing old tools with new tools. It's replacing human workers with non-human workers.

[Major Nikon]

58. You could say the same thing about a tractor

...or a rake for that matter.

Robots most certainly are tools that allow fewer workers to do more work. Calling them slaves cheapens the meaning of that word, which means something else entirely.

There's nothing inherently wrong with increasing productivity. What's wrong is funneling all the gains of that increased productivity to the financiers. The industrial revolution was also a worker's revolution, which used the power of unionization to funnel the gains of that increased productivity back to the worker class. There's no reason why those same lessons can't be employed today. What's stopping it is you have a very calculated and well financed misinformation network designed to convince people to vote against their own best interests.

[DetlefK]

60. How many Roombas and how many human workers do you need to vacuum your floor?

You need 1 Roomba and 0 workers.

"Robots most certainly are tools that allow fewer workers to do more work."
Well, it's so few workers that we are down to zero.

[Major Nikon]

64. For my home the answer to the first is 2 and the answer to the second is the same number

Have you ever owned a roomba? You have to clean them after each use. You also have to put sensors down on the floor to keep them in a specific area and they frequently get caught on rugs and other things and require human assistance to get going again. You also still need a regular vacuum cleaner because they can't do everything. Personally I never saw the point, but my wife loves them.

We are not down to zero and we will never be down to zero. Without increased productivity you and your family members would be spending most of your time in fields plowing, planting, and harvesting. The rest would be spent on other time intensive tasks like milking cows, using a washboard to clean clothes, and kneading bread by hand.

Productivity actually makes us less of 'slaves' to mindless tasks and gives us more resources and time for leisure activities. That productivity just has to be managed so that everyone benefits from it, and this must happen at some level regardless of how it's managed simply because people can't buy more shit if they don't have the cabbage to do it with. Other countries have fought productivity gains and have suffered greatly for it.

[DetlefK]

66. So, you are saying that you haven't hired anybody to do the job of the Roombas?

It's just you, your wife and the Roombas. There is no worker making a salary by vacuuming your floors or taking care of your Roombas.

[rickford66]

2. More wars

[democratisphere]

3. 38% ot the jobs will be lost to automation by 2030.

The job market is currently in a crisis that is going to continually become worse. Greed will overcome reason and logic; robots don't eat and robots don't drive cars. The world has truly gone insane.

[napi21]

10. I don't know your starting point when you say 38% of the jobs. From when? Now? I sincerely doubt

it was a long time ago because thinking back over the years I've been around, many more than 38% have been lost to automation. I'm 73, and even thinking about some jobs I've had, the manual part of the jobs are gone. One of the newer job markets when I first entered the workforce was "keypunch operator. If I mention the keypunch to the youth of today, they have no idea what I'm talking about. A higher % of jobs in steel & manufacturing have been lost to automation than to companies shipping businesses out of the country hunting for the lowest wage people.

With automation taking a lot of jobs, other jobs will be created. Somebody has to make the robots, production lines, etc. Somebody has to keep them operational. autonomous cars will still have accidents and somebody has to repair them. A lot of occupations will continue to exist, like plumbing, HVAC, construction and the like. People are going to have to monitor what's going on and work on getting into a business that is growing at the time.

[KingCharlemagne]

61. Robots will make the robots, robots will repair the damaged cars. - nt

[NutmegYankee]

69. Uh, no.

Unless the robots have significant AI, the troubleshooting and repairs will still require human technicians. I have daily experience in complex electrical-mechanical systems.

[NightWatcher]

4. We kill the machines before they rise up and destroy us all. Hello? Terminator anyone?

[KingCharlemagne]

62. They will be able to read our lips (maybe not our minds):

[JI7]

5. Gauranteed Minimum Income

[Warpy]

20. yes, it's the only solution

or marauding mobs of hungry, displaced workers will start smashing every machine they see.

A lot of the jobs robotics are now doing were terrible, repetitive, mind numbing jobs. People miss the camaraderie of work and the money they earned. The jobs, not so much.

In the Victorian period, mobs went around smashing threshing machines. Threshing small amounts of grain at a time had been steady work for the rural poor. Once those machines came in, the whole crop would be threshed at once in the space of a few hours, the grain neatly bagged to be sent to market. Nobody missed the work, they missed the pay they'd gotten for doing it very much. When wrecking the machinery didn't work, they ended up in urban slums.

If you've ever read anything about those slums, you know it was a horror most of us don't ever want to repeat. Dickens wrote about some of the conditions, but he sugar coated it enough that his books weren't banned.

I don't think the 1% will succeed in pushing us down that far again, but I do know that they'll try. One Republican is already shouting "A man who does not work shall not eat," completely eradicating the Jesus of the loaves and fishes as well as 99% of the OT. They don't give a damn if there is no work to do.

Ever since agriculture was invented, people have been dreaming of a world with no work. If nothing is done to allow us to afford to live in such a world, it will be a horror. If we do get enough to live in such a world, it could be a new Renaissance, people staving off boredom by study and crafts, gardening and ideas as well as drink and drugs.

If not, there will be hell to pay and guess who will get stuck with the bill. As usual.

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. agreed - we are in the midst of a major paradigm shift. (as I sit here telling my Echo what music

to play).

Not sure what the answer is - but it is indeed happening.

[madville]

7. Go to school for PLC - Programmable Logic Controllers

That is what runs most automated things these days. Be an automation technician.

[Brother Buzz]

14. Automated things don't run...

without the mechanics repairing the pneumatic and hydraulic systems, and replacing the burned out electronic components.

I'm just saying.

[madville]

15. My 19 year old is looking into that

He is considering an Industrial Science Associates Degree from the local technical college. It covers all that, electrical, PLCs, hydraulics, pneumatics, etc.

[Brother Buzz]

17. The skilled wrench turner that doesn't mind getting dirty and knows his stuff...

will always be in demand.

[NBachers]

49. Be a plumber- No robot's coming over to change the toilet, unclog your drain, or replace a tub valve

No robot's coming over to dig up your leaky, root-clogged cast-iron main sewer line and replace it.

Three robots leaning on shovels and smoking cigarettes while one digs, curses, and exposes robo-crack. Not gonna happen.

[Brother Buzz]

68. I mostly agree, but I suspect...

we are just one or two inovations away from replacing municipal sewer lines with robots. Trenchless sewer repair, baby

[KT2000]

44. My nephew has a company

that utilizes most of those skills to repair and modify heavy equipment. He has tried to expand due to the work load but cannot get people who know the work. He ends up hiring older workers. He even offered to train but has a very hard time getting applicants.

Your 19 year old should go for it. The pay is very good and in my nephew's case, he has taken crews to several countries and states because there seems to be a real shortage in these skills.

[NBachers]

50. Operating Engineers Local 3- They train, and they take vets. This is the way I should've gone . . .

https://www.oe3.org/ Click the Link click the link

[KT2000]

70. Thank You!!

Sent the link to my nephew.

[PsychoBabble]

19. Absolutely, but ...

Not at the same volume of jobs as before ... and the entry into a job will require increasing levels of training and sophistication compared to now.

You can get trained at Walmart in few days; doubt that will happen for the one person who runs the robots who repair the robots factory ....

[Warpy]

27. And not everyone has the talent and/or inclination

[Exultant Democracy]

34. Today sure, soon enough not so much. Robots to build and repair

Other robots are already here so that isn't even that big a step.

[Loki Liesmith]

39. Oh we can make machines to repair machines

[fleabiscuit]

8. Ask the poets and artists for answers to those kind of questions. nt

[kentuck]

9. We need to create social jobs for everybody.

Any job that will make our society better for the people. We will no longer be the leading military around the world. We will have to take care of our own people. There will have to be a guaranteed income.

[napi21]

12. I read a book a few weeks ago that was set in the future. It never said what year, but there were

comments in the story like "Oh that doesn't happen anymore. That's back when people still went to war." It mentioned many things that are problems now but gone in their era, like popularity of guns, people killing each other out of anger. All the bad things were gone. Yea, I know, it was a work of fiction, but a lot of things that were only in science fiction years ago are real now!

[grantcart]

11. Bill Gates has an interesting idea; tax robots to pay for retraining.

https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/

In a recent interview with Quartz, Gates said that a robot tax could finance jobs taking care of elderly people or working with kids in schools, for which needs are unmet and to which humans are particularly well suited. He argues that governments must oversee such programs rather than relying on businesses, in order to redirect the jobs to help people with lower incomes. The idea is not totally theoretical: EU lawmakers considered a proposal to tax robot owners to pay for training for workers who lose their jobs, though on Feb. 16 the legislators ultimately rejected it.

[PsychoBabble]

16. Yes, the robot owners are already pushing back and ...

Retrain workers ... for what, exactly.

We will never have the volume of jobs we currently have available again, as I see it. I had seen his proposal, too ... requires either government enforcement, or extreme altruism. Can't say I see the evidence of either in our current political culture.

[Warpy]

41. Yeah, retraining men to do the caretaking work they've always expected

women to do for free, yeah, there's the ticket.

The altruism will happen but only when government and industrialists are afraid for their lives.

[PsychoBabble]

13. Citizens become the Ghost in the Machine ...

My wife and I were talking about this exact topic tonight :

Retail stores closing, retail jobs disappearing
Robotics and AI displacing workers
Flyover/rural jobs gone

So what happens when the entire underpinning for a consumer economy disappears over the next, say, 2 decades?


Other than barter, we've exchanged labor for income almost forever. Life as we know it is built upon that certainty.

There have been some fitful starts in mostly liberal circles talking about UBI, Universal Basic Income. However, given the current Big Biz/Anti Tax mindset of at least half of America, it is hard to see how we even get a conversation with them that is a complete rejection of their anti-government, self-responsibility, lone wolf economic survivor mindset.

And yet, given the accelation of these above trends, I don't see how we avoid this freight train hurtling down the tunnel towards us.

Would love to hear some clairvoyant thoughts ....

[Warpy]

43. Systems of marking wealth evolved with the development of agriculture

and eventually developed into written language, mathematics, and coinage. This process has been a very long time evolving. It allowed people whose whole net worth was in grain or wool to exchange tokens to get the other things they needed, so it had that kind of flexibility. Unfortunately, a few people started gaming the system to grab as many of the tokens as they could, far beyond what they needed or could possibly use in several lifetimes.

Now, as you pointed out, it's breaking down because the few have grabbed so much out of the system they've started to destroy the market for goods and services being produced.

With robot factories churning out all that stuff that no one can buy, it will be interesting to see what the next economic paradigm becomes.

[PsychoBabble]

45. Interesting historical reference

Thx for the perspective

[Warpy]

46. The original system involved balls, cones, cylinders, and other symple shapes

that were sealed into two identical balls of clay, each marked with an official seal and marks identifying the sellers. Both parties to whatever deal was being made got one of the balls. When the time came to settle up, the balls were broken open and the tokens counted up against what was being traded. Then the tokens could be used to procure other items.

So if that ball represented a quantity of fleece, you could exchange it for grain from a cold farmer who needed a new cloak, and so forth. It was an ingenious system. One imagines the guy with the clay and the seal took a bit out of every deal and did quite well, himself, for ensuring nobody got cheated.

That evolved into clay tablets with the tokens turned into impressions, again marked with a seal and that eventually evolved into a system of writing and the tokens evolved into coinage, something that existed in a lot of Europe before the Romans came along, despite what we were all told in Middle School, and likely predated the Pyramids in China.

[KingCharlemagne]

67. In the words of the immortal (Red) Emma Goldman:

Ask for work. If they don't give you work, ask for bread. If they do not give you work or bread, then take bread.

~Anarchism and Other Essays

[msongs]

18. stop using places that automate wherever possible...but americans put cheap china junk ahead of jobs

for themselves and fellow americans so this may not work

[PsychoBabble]

22. Seems like it would take a massive rejection

Of our current way of consuming to do that. Like moving back to agrarian economy. Don't see it happening.

I just fail to see a solution to the VOLUME issue ... the replacement jobs will never be as numerous as the ones we are losing, and the incentives for biz owners to accelerate the job destruction trend is very large (until nobody left to buy their stuff, that is)

[Calculating]

21. Universal basic income is the only pleasant option

And it would need to carry requirements such as a one-child policy. All other scenarios involve WW3 to cull surplus population, or some kind of dystopian future where the elites live in walled off fortresses and send out their kill bots to eliminate dissent.

[PsychoBabble]

23. I wish I could say you are kidding but ...

I don't think you are.

So maybe it all starts with .... 24 million citizens losing their health care.

Next stop ... Dystopia.

I've had similar thoughts ... UBI ... or else just the kinds of things you suggest.

[JHan]

30. It doesn't have to be dystopian..

We have a real opportunity, if UBI is implemented right, to do away with a puritanical approach to the concept of "work", where work for the sake of work no matter how demeaning is elevated, and do away with the idea that a human's value is dictated by unit productivity. It requires political will to shift productivity gains to those who are left out or to just share those gains equitably. Socialist democratic principles offer the best outcomes, and should define the 21st century however we can't afford to fuck up whatever progress we've made thus far. Liberal values must conquer the outbreak of feverish backwardness we're currently seeing with the rise of the far right globally where fear of other (fear of the world) overrides mutual (global) relationships/ co-operation else we'll truly be faced with every worst case scenario you can dream of..

( I have a feeling I've said this to you before - sorry if I'm repeating myself lol - I get all passionate about stuff like this)

[PsychoBabble]

35. Philosophically, I agree with you but ...

WOW. That feels like a cultural heavy lift I am not convinced we have in us - need some young fresh minds to drive that change ... IF we can resist the current dystopian gravity.

Feels akin to "world peace" ... admirable, devoutly to be wished, but holy crap .... getin' 'er done for real??

[JHan]

36. yes it will...

serious heavy lifting.

The folks who would NOT want the reality I describe to happen would be the koch brothers, mercers, heritage foundation, basically conservatism would need to be transformed for them to get on board. Never before have we needed to defend liberal values as much as we do right now.

[PsychoBabble]

37. Amen.

[CanSocDem]

65. America had a choice...

...to take the first step on the road to 'social democracy' and discovered it didn't have the backbone for it.


.

[doc03]

24. 32 hour work week nt

[PsychoBabble]

26. Short term fix?

Everyone works less, so more positions ... but the robotics etc trend acceleration still runs over us eventually ...

[PsychoBabble]

25. Corporate Masters ...

And, with a shrinking broad based tax base as we lose retail etc jobs, we all become increasingly dependent on the big corps to provide the income for us via UBI ... and what is THEIR incentive? I am simply failing to see the good end to this picture so far ...

[Calculating]

29. Their only incentive is the threat of societal chaos resulting from mass unemployment.

Basically you pay the unemployed masses to not burn the city down, behave in general, and stop having so many kids. Either that or you just develop autonomous war bots to deal with the problem.

[PatrickforO]

28. Guaranteed national income.

Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1912 and have our government begin printing its own money and funding beneficial projects that actually build up infrastructure and materially improve peoples' lives.

Reorganize our society around human need instead of human greed.

Hey, what can I say? I'm a....unicorn!

[PsychoBabble]

33. Might need that unicorn horn to ...

Hunt for food

[PsychoBabble]

31. FYI - Lights out manufacturing ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lights_out_(manufacturing)

Lights out or lights-out manufacturing is a manufacturing methodology (or philosophy), rather than a specific process.

Factories that run lights out are fully automated and require no human presence on-site. Thus, these factories can be run with the lights off. Many factories are capable of lights-out production, but very few run exclusively lights-out. Typically, workers are necessary to set up tombstones holding parts to be manufactured, and to remove the completed parts. As the technology necessary for lights-out production becomes increasingly available, many factories are beginning to utilize lights-out production between shifts (or as a separate shift) to meet increasing demand or to save money. An automatic factory is a place where raw materials enter and finished products leave with little or no human intervention.

And ...

The Future of Lights Out Manufacturing

The evolution towards fully automated factories is a process that began decades ago. Recent advances in automation and the pressure of rising wages in some areas have accelerated progress in recent years. Today, lights out manufacturing is employed with increasing frequency. However, not every part and process lends itself to lights out manufacturing. Some processes are simply too complex to manage without human intervention. In other industries, there is too much of a variance in orders to justify such an investment in automation. The most suitable processes for automation are those where assembly is repetitive and often too intricate for human hands, such as with electronics.

Economists and policy makers have noted the impact of lights out manufacturing. In a recent report to Congress, White House economists calculated an 83 percent chance that employees making under $20 per hour would eventually lose their jobs to robots. Online retailer, Amazon, has already replaced many warehouse workers with robots. For businesses and investors, the rise in profits is good news. The hope is that displaced workers will go on to find better, more valuable roles in this changing economic landscape.

http://www.pcdrome.com/lights-out-how-automation-is-disrupting-the-future-of-manufacturing/6373

[pangaia]

32. Even creative endeavors like music composition could be automated.

Check out ILLIAC SUITE by Lejaren Hiller.

Sorry, I can't seem to copy a link....on my tablet..

[Binkie The Clown]

38. Basic income for everybody and let the robots do all the work.

Humans have the potential to do better things with their lives. Let robots serve us and we can all live like kings.

(Right up until global warming kills us all, of course.)

[KittyWampus]

40. Profit sharing. Corporations over a certain size are owned 50% by public

And the public gets a dividend check from all of them.

[nikibatts]

42. Send the robots into battle and bring the soldiers home to take their jobs.

[DetlefK]

54. I really, really hope you are kidding.

[tirebiter]

47. Get a skill

Then join a union

[silverweb]

48. Maybe, just maybe...

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]If we manage to avert global disaster of our own making and survive, we'll find the wisdom to progress.

Maybe we'll realize that robotics and automation can free us, provide for all our needs, allow us to focus on our self-evolution individually and collectively, and give us the adventure of exploring the mysteries of nature and the universe "just because."

My very favorite STNG episode shows what could be when "stuff" and wealth are no longer needed to live a free and fulfilling life, and thus lose their status value.

[workinclasszero]

51. Some level of guaranteed income for all citizens

And a 20 hour work week possibly.

But first a civil war and/or the dividing of red and blue America because no way in hell will republicans go along with this type of thing.

[tirebiter]

52. John l. lewis

Who led the UMW for 40 years saw this coming and never came up with a good answer

[Kahuna7]

55. It's not just automation. With modern technology gadgets, products

have become obsolete.

[BSdetect]

56. This is one of the most important questions facing us.

Future "work" needs to be re-defined.

Even construction of dwellings can be largely automated.

People will need to grow their own food locally.

Creative arts.

[snooper2]

57. ROFLMAO, is this what Clinton Watts was talking about?

distraction?

[KingCharlemagne]

59. Anthropocentric climate change may render the qestion moot, as 80% of the

the world's populaton live within 1 km of an ocean. As global sea levels rise during the next 50-100 years, there will be a global mass migration unlike any ever seen before in the history of homo sapiens.

[HughBeaumont]

63. Dystopia.

Dystopia, dystopia, dystopia. And it isn't just Automation we have to worry about.

Everyone preaching "Universal Basic Income" is talking pie-in-the-sky bulldada. The modern conservative (you know, that guy who runs damned near EVERYthing in America) is George Dubya on Steroids. For every reasonable wealthy guy, there are 10-20 Sheldon Adelsons who will never, EVER stand for even one red cent of their tax pittance going to fund "LAZY BUMS THAT SHOULD BE WERKIN!!" AND THEY ALL RUN THE EARTH. Not to mention the millions of conservative racists who would never stand for it, even if it benefits them.

I really feel our best and happiest days are long behind us. We're never going to stand up to the people in power and they're just going to run right over us and not lose an ounce of sleep in doing so. This current administration couldn't fix a fucking Kleenex box and they're going to ruin the economy, all so already-wealthy guys can get ever wealthier while we experience job drought with zero lifeline and a horrid future. It's just too depressing and sad to think and talk about.

[duncang]

71. Small jobs, construction, medicine

As someone who has working on installing automation for decades. It will take time but in the scheme of things not that long for a lot more job sectors to be shuttered.

One thing that has to be looked at is what kind of jobs will be the next to go to automation. What makes sense to stay in human hands and what make monetary sense to move to automation.

Some have mentioned electronic trouble shooting and repair. That is even slowly becoming less of a job maker. As more and more pieces of equipment become "disposable" or have self diagnostic capabilities and just swapping out components some of that will go away. I and probably some others here have worked on equip. that gave error codes and you just plugged in a new component.

Jobs that build new stuff like roads, bridges, buildings, new construction, etc will be able to last for a long time and supply employment.

Building or facility general maintenance. The cost of automating things like that will be way over the costs of employment for a long time. But one thing on it is most of that will be companies who do nothing but that.