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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Biggest Disappointment from the Nov Election?
For Me. Besides the Results of course?
Nate Silvers 538
Anyone else feel the same way? Realize there still a lot of questions regarding machine hacking..
But as far as Im concerned 538 will not be my go to choice in future elections..
Might be hard headed and wrong but its the way I feel...
Am I way off base?
aidbo
(2,328 posts)Some were castigating them at the time that they had Trump's number as high as they did.
busterbrown
(8,515 posts)Just based on their P.Opinions..
Were suppose to react to the professionals....
Professionals (538) had the odds deep towards Trumps Defeat?
aidbo
(2,328 posts)It's difficult to put probabilities on an event that only happens once, like a presidential election.
So they run simulations on computers with that polling data. And in their simulations, they must have had DT winning about 29% of the time. That's almost a 1 in 3 chance for him to win, and he did. Ask a gambler if he/she would bet their home on those odds. (Probably a bad analogy, there are probably many that would take those odds, but I wouldn't)
Yet much of the public assumed it was a lock, because much of the public don't really 'get' statistics.
It's not our fault that probability is difficult for us to grasp intuitively, our brain just isn't 'wired' that way. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-our-brains-do-not-intuitively-grasp-probabilities/
Edited to add: of course the media also bear much of the blame for allowing the public to believe it was a 'lock'.
busterbrown
(8,515 posts)Because their methodology did not work.. That way there will be absolutely no excuses or explanations needed
next time... Besides everyone had Romney, and Obama winning...
Bottom line 538 is done in many minds!
LisaL
(44,973 posts)busterbrown
(8,515 posts)over the last few election cycles.. Too bad.. Im sure youll agree.
aidbo
(2,328 posts)No. 538 had the odds of Trump winning at nearly 1 in 3 which are decidedly not "deep towards Trump's Defeat".
There was, in my opinion, a general belief that Hillary 'had it in the bag'. That in itself could have (I stress could have) depressed turnout enough to put Trump over the edge in those three states that ended up making all the difference in the Electoral College. Only something like 77,000 votes more for Trump combined in MI, WI, and PA. Polling data is also suspect these days and their prediction models are only as good as the data that go into them.
I don't know a better way to put this to you, but I just don't think 538's prediction was as far off as you seem to believe it was.
elehhhhna
(32,076 posts)For me anyway.
marlakay
(11,470 posts)He really blew it, and your right no one will trust him.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)Or voted third party because they couldn't support the lesser of 2 evils but had no problem with their actions allowing true evil to come to Washington....A disgrace.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)He was giving Trump 1 in 3 chance. Those are pretty good odds.
Shandris
(3,447 posts)Can someone explain why? I haven't heard much about him since his changeup a couple days before the election.
Stinky The Clown
(67,807 posts)If liberals show up, liberals win.
Period.