General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDocreed2003
(16,859 posts)Before we had a chance to even respond...and these morons want to poke the bear with a stick.
HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)SonofDonald
(2,050 posts)I read a book called "Area 51" written by a woman who really got into her research, in it she stated the USA has produced 70,000 nuclear ( which may include thermonuclear ) weapons in over 60 varieties.
45 may just think he can throw a "small one" at NK's forces and not cause any more damage than necessary.
That would tend to mess up their battery's of launchers but in the end it's still a nuclear weapon and should NEVER be used.
People may tend to think any nuclear bomb is a hugely destructive weapon but they do have small ones in our arsenal and 45 may think "if I just used a teeny tiny one it's be ok", but it's not, and never will be.
I recommend the above mentioned "Area 51" I can't remember the authors name as I loaned out the book.
And "Dark Sun" about the development of the Hydrogen bomb, author Richard Rhodes.
My Father watched the first two hydrogen bombs being detonated and a couple of atom bombs in the early fifties in the South Pacific while in the US Navy, his thoughts on them were " I hope they never use one, I really do, because if they do the world may just come to an end".
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)EX500rider
(10,848 posts)The news does love sensational BS stories though..
A 2011 study by the Nautilus Institute throws a considerable amount of cold water on this scenario. While the sheer number of artillery tubes could theoretically kill a large number of civilians, operational issues complicate matters and push the number of civilian casualties greatly downward. Despite the thousands of artillery pieces, only 700 heavier guns and rocket launchers, plus the newer 300-millimeter MRLs, have the range to strike Seoul. Only a third would normally be fired at once, and notional rates of fire would be slowed tremendously by the need to withdraw guns into their hardened artillery sites (HARTS) to shelter them from counter battery fire.
Other factors reduce the projected loss of life in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. The city has extensive air raid shelters for civilians that will quickly reduce the exposed population density. The North will struggle to keep these heavy artillery units supplied with shells, particularly with its aging supply system. Finally, U.S. and ROK forces will quickly begin hunting down units participating in the bombardment, causing their numbers to drop almost immediately.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345
Three Primary Factors
Range Only about 1/3 of Seoul is presently in range from artillery along a DMZ trace. The northern reaches of Seoul within artillery range have much lower population densities than Seoul proper;
Numbers Even though KPA has a tremendous number of artillery pieces, only a certain number are emplaced to range Seoul. KPA cant emplace every weapon near Seoul or the rest of North Koreas expansive border would be unguarded and even more vulnerable. Moreover, an artillery tube immediately reveals its location as soon as it fires. Therefore only about two-thirds of artillery will open fire at a time. The rest are trying to remain hidden;
Protection Artillery shelters for twenty million people exist in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. After the initial surprise has worn off, there simply wont be large numbers of exposed people. Even during the initial attack the vast majority of people will either be at work, at home, or in transit. Few people will be standing in the middle of an open field with no protection whatsoever available anywhere nearby.
Three Secondary Factors
Dud rate the only numbers availableto the DPRK as well as the rest of the worldindicate a dud rate of twenty-five percent. Its like immediately taking every fourth artillery tube away.
Counter-battery fires shortly after the KPA artillery begins firing, and the political decision has been made, South Korean artillery, Air Forces, and others will begin destroying artillery at a historical rate of 1% per hour. South Korea has had approximately 50 years to figure out where North Korean artillery tubes are emplaced using every sense available to man and machine.
Logistics in order to move south from the DMZ trace and place the rest of Seoul at risk, KPA must expose approximately 2,500 thin-skinned vehicles each day along three well-defined transportation corridors. Otherwise, KPA grinds to an almost immediate halt without a way to transport fuel, ammunition and spare parts needed to continue moving south. Alternatively, KPA can scavenge from ROK fuel stores and depots if they have not been previously destroyed.
http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/