Heres Another Good Omen for Democrats in 2018

[SecularMotion]

To the gradually but steadily increasing body of evidence that Democrats are likely to have a solid performance in the 2018 midterm elections comes another factor: the so-called “generic congressional ballot,” which means polling of which party voters are likely to prefer in upcoming U.S. House elections.

FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten notes that in generic congressional balloting Democrats are in the best position at this early stage of the midterm election cycle of any opposition party dating all the way back to 1942. They currently lead the GOP by a 45 percent to 40 percent margin in the polling averages.

Democrats are in a historically great position according to the generic ballot. Typically, at this point in a midterm cycle — the first half of the year after the preceding presidential election — the party in control of the House is fairly popular. Most likely, they did at least OK in the last election (they still control the House, after all) and they simply haven’t had enough time to upset the electorate too much. Republicans in 2017, though, are one of the exceptions to the rule.

As Enten observes, one of the other rare moments when the party controlling the House looked to be in relatively bad shape the year before midterms was in 2013, and Republicans rebounded to do very well in 2014. They did not, however, have the current GOP Congress’s handicap of being the White House party.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/04/heres-another-good-omen-for-democrats-in-2018.html

[flying-skeleton]

1. FiveThirtyEight WHO ???

They were as UNRELIABLE as the everyone else who filled democrats ears with false hope !!

[clementine613]

2. Too bad the Repugs cheated...

... and loaded it up so that the Repugs only have to defend 9 Senate seats to our 23. If they had an ounce of fairness in their bodies, they'd put up an equal number of seats. But since Rethugs are, by definition, not fair, I suppose that's just too much to ask.

[GulfCoast66]

3. How did they cheat? On the Senate thing that is? They cheat in other way all them time.

The traditions of these seats go back generations. Which is why we can say that so-and-so occupies Kennedy's seat or even Henry Clay's seat. Each seat is voted on every 6 years regardless of the party of it's occupant. I guess a special election could upset the every 6 year thing, but that still would not be a partisan play, just someone dying or resigning. Just so happens 2018 favors the republicans. Last year favored us but we underperformed. As they will in 2018.

At least that is what I have always been taught. If I am wrong, someone here will correct me.

[clementine613]

4. I understand the process....

... but if they had an ounce of fairness in their bones, if they had a single shred of decency in their souls, they'd put up an even number of seats. But being Rethugs, they don't.

[GulfCoast66]

5. Respectfully, and I repect your spirit, but you apparently do not understand the process

There is no constitutionally allowable method to change the seats that are up in 2018 even if every republican in the Senate wanted to. That ship sailed in 1789 when the constitution was ratified.

I guess a number of republicans could resign, but at that point their state's governors would just name their replacements, most of who would be republicans.

Have a nice evening.

[clementine613]

6. Sure there is...

Resign. The seat is then up for election.

Edit: My apologies... I didn't see that you mentioned that already.