Do current forecast models work with climate change?

[SoutherDem]

I have noticed something for the last three summers. I realize forecasts are sometimes at best guesses, but for the third year I am noticing a trend. The long term forecasts predicts the high temperatures are close to average toward the end of the 7 or 10 day period but as it but the short range forecasts show temperatures above average and the actual temperature ends up being above average.

So my question is has climate change made the forecasting models useless?

[hedgehog]

1. I've been noticing in the pasrt few years that

fronts seem to be traveling faster so that the general shape of the forecast is OK but the details vary.

Central New York is where a lot of weather fronts meet. It makes a difference for us when one front passes through 8 hours ahead of forecast instead of hanging around to meet up with a second front .

[XemaSab]

2. Chaos theory

Thresholds

Sandpiles

Tipping points