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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJamelle Bouie: Political Malfeasance
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/05/passing_trumpcare_2_0_will_be_an_unmitigated_disaster_for_the_gop.htmlPolitical Malfeasance
Passing Trumpcare 2.0 will be an unmitigated disaster for the GOP.
By Jamelle Bouie
snip//
After seven years of promising to repeal and replace the ACA, Republicans are certainly desperate to pass something. So desperate that they are now sprinting for the finish line as quickly as possible, forgoing customary analysis from the Congressional Budget Office to avoid controversy or second thoughts from hesitant members. These amendmentswhich it seems would likely worsen coverage for manydont change the fact that the AHCA is a political and policy disaster waiting to happena disaster that could undo the Republican majority in dramatic fashion.
To start, theres the fact that the Upton amendment doesnt do much to fix the basic problem of the AHCA and its treatment of Americans with pre-existing conditions. As my colleague Jordan Weissmann notes, that $8 billion would likely not be enough to make up for the current shortfall needed to fund the pools adequately. Indeed, its not even clear that this money will be used for high-risk pools. According to one report, the $8 billion is there to pay the laws insurance penalty for consumers who were priced out of the health market on account of pre-existing conditions and thus couldnt maintain coverage. Its less a subsidy to individuals and more a giveaway to insurers, who could charge high penalties knowing the government will recoup the cost, to say nothing of their newfound freedom to sell junk plans. Whats more, Weissmann points out, the Upton amendment may encourage consumers to wait to buy insurance until they are sick (again, the government will pick up the penalty), destabilizing health care markets.
All of this is on top of the fact that the basic structure of the AHCA hasn't changed. It still cuts Medicaid, still defund subsidies for health insurance, and still presumably ends health insurance for more than 24 million people over the next 10 years (we cant say for certain because, again, the Republicans still dont have a CBO score). And all of this is in service of massive tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, the overriding priority of Ryan and much of the House Republican caucus.
The original AHCA failed because it was an unworkable and unpopular policy, opposed by huge majorities of the public. Ryans boosterism aside, this new AHCA is still unworkable and, in all likelihood, still unpopularthe original bill was polling at 17 percent. Although these changes may have made the bill more palatable to conservatives, theres no reason to expect them to move the numbers to anywhere near majority support. And that unpopularity matters: Following its introduction in March, the AHCA sparked a steep and sustained decline in Trumps standing, which damaged the Republican Party writ large and may have contributed to the surprise strength of Democratic congressional candidates in Kansas and Georgia. House Republicans can continue their push for a bill, but they have to know that they risk genuine political disaster, to say nothing of the human costs of their bill.
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