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Sun May 7, 2017, 01:01 PM

Exit poll 65.9 and 66.4 for macron !

Polls just closed. First exit polls show a big victory for macron

8 replies, 3025 views

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Reply Exit poll 65.9 and 66.4 for macron ! (Original post)
drray23 May 2017 OP
JackRiddler May 2017 #1
JackRiddler May 2017 #5
sharedvalues May 2017 #7
Dawson Leery May 2017 #2
NastyRiffraff May 2017 #3
malaise May 2017 #4
dalton99a May 2017 #6
sharedvalues May 2017 #8

Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun May 7, 2017, 01:04 PM

1. A big loss for Le Pen, you mean.

 

2/3 of French don't want the fascist, thank god (1/3 do, horribly enough), but 2/3 didn't vote for the bankster who's going to cut their wages and pensions and increase their working hours, you can be certain, and they will be out on the street in force when he tries.

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Response to JackRiddler (Reply #1)

Sun May 7, 2017, 02:17 PM

5. Most of Macron's voters voted against Le Pen, not for him.

 

On the initial figures of an abstention of 25.3 percent, 12 percent blanc votes (of votes cast), and 65.1 percent Macron to 34.9 percent to Le Pen (of valid votes), the absolute numbers are:

Electorate - 47.6 million

Abstaining - 12 million
Blanc votes - 4.2 million

Macron 20.33 million
Le Pen 10.95 million

The abstention rate cannot be interepreted as in the United States, where we assume people are uninvolved or uninformed. The French population is highly politicized and this is a record low turn out, the lowest since 1969, and a record high for blanc votes.

If this holds, then Le Pen will have increased by a little over 3 million votes from the first round.

Bad. But compared with polling, an advance which has been held back - with people going to abstain and vote nul instead.

From this moment the left reappears formally in the political process with the National Assembly elections.

Already there is a protest in Paris tomorrow afternoon against the social offensive Macron plans.

Le Pen ended her campaign with anti-fascist protests besieging her in Reims.

There is a huge challenge for friends on the French left and for the French working class movement.

But all who made an anti-FN argument these last two weeks can feel proud of themselves. Those who resisted also the cynical drive to collapse the left behind Macron can feel especially vindicated. They, and Melenchon and Poutou from the radical and anti-capitalist left were right.

Macron has less than 42 percent of the votes of adults in France. Fifteen years ago Chirac had 62 percent of them.

This is a weak position for an incoming president.

The headlines cannot be that neoliberalism is the way to beat reaction.

They in every country will have to reflect the reality - that people oppose Le Pen and fascism, but want better than Macron offers. Indeed, they know they will clash with Macron.

That includes Macron voters, 60 percent of whom went to him only to stop Le Pen.

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Response to JackRiddler (Reply #5)

Sun May 7, 2017, 03:59 PM

7. Honestly just need fascists out for next two years while the world deals with Putin's interventions

It seems likely that the next year or two will bring a major world re-evaluation of Putin's foreign propaganda.

We'll also see a reckoning about social media and tech firms and data and privacy, as a result of the use of social media to foment hate and suppress votes in Brexit and in the US 2016 election.

If LePen had won that would have been a disaster. America will get 45 out in the next year or two, or severely weaken him. But May is going nowhere, and LePen in France would have been a major major setback for democracy and freedom worldwide.

Vive la France! Vive la resistance!

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun May 7, 2017, 01:11 PM

2. kick

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun May 7, 2017, 01:12 PM

3. Macron projected to win!

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun May 7, 2017, 01:24 PM

4. Amazing how accurate exit polls are when there's no stealing

He won 65.9% of the votes

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Response to malaise (Reply #4)

Sun May 7, 2017, 02:17 PM

6. No kidding

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Response to malaise (Reply #4)

Sun May 7, 2017, 04:00 PM

8. More likely inaccuracy in US reflects social media intervention

Many white racist nationalist voters in US were told to lie to pollsters. These messages came across social media:
Twitter, Facebook, reddit, 4chan, etc.

If Russia did involve themselves in our election, I bet that's the way they did it.

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