Do you think impeachment will be successful?...

[Locut0s]

Assuming that someone soon brings an article / articles of impeachment forward in the house. Do you think enough republicans will vote in favour such that impeachment will be successful? As a Canadian I follow US politics with interest but I don't know the details of said procedure very well. I understand that a simple majority vote is all that's necessary to impeach Trump which then sends the matter to the Senate for trial. Do you feel there will be enough votes? These are not your typical republicans of yore who, even if you hated them seemed to have some semblance of actual patriotism and character. Mostly I see bootlickers as I called them recently. And let's say that impeachment proceedings are successful. What would you currently say is the likelihood that the Senate would be able to convict. Unlike Nixon I'm not sure if Trump is the type to resign.

[L. Coyote]

1. Resignation is coming fast, as soon as Trump's indictment is unsealed.

EXCLUSIVE: Sealed Indictment granted against Donald Trump

Link to tweet

[NightWatcher]

2. Assuming all Dems and Ind vote for it, we'd have to flip 3.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Three for what ? Impeachment requires a two thirds vote in the Senate to remove.

[NightWatcher]

7. Crap, forgot. So flip nearly 20

[Locut0s]

8. I think he means 3 for the article of impeachment to pass...

The Senate vote is separate. But indeed that might be even harder if you need to flip a lot more.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. We need a lot more than three to get it out of the House. The Rs have 240 or so seats.

[LeftInTX]

14. We need 66 votes in the Senate

So, at least 17 senators would have to defect.

Not gonna happen unless it gets really, really bad.
Maybe if Trump murdered a Republican...
Maybe if Trump tries to fire Congress. (I know it can't be done, but wouldn't put it past him)


That is about all I can think of

[democratisphere]

3. Yes. But not without a fight.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Not yet.

More facts need to be developed. While this is happening, Trump will almost certainly continue to step on the rakes that he left in his own garden. Sooner or later - probably later - it could be possible.

[Locut0s]

10. His level of childish incompetency really is something to behold...

I've never seen anyone quite like him. While it's terrifying to think that these people are in the white house, and unfortunately the damage done is going to reverberate for years to come, it's also darkly side splittingly funny. The man is a literal 12 year old school ground bully of a man child. That's not even an exaggeration. He's an interesting text book case for psychologists to study. Unbelievable that he made it into the white house.

[Phoenix61]

6. Too soon to tell

I don't think the leaks have really started yet. Granted, it's not good stuff but it's the financial Intel that will be his undoing. The records of laundering Russian mob money. The bank on Crete is on to Manafort. The Dutch are on to Twitler. Israel is royally pissed at Twitler and I can only imagine the Intel they can get their hands on. Merkel seems to know what an idiot Twitler is so I'm sure she would be more than happy to help take him down. He was getting along ok with China but I think the Russia issue will tank that budding friendship.

[nocalflea]

9. He's a goner - it's only gonna get worse.

Signs of the imminent "piling on" are beginning to surface. Selling out your country is not defensible. Even republicans know this.

[Retrograde]

12. Only if the Reps initiate it

which means that Trump will have to do something so over the top that a significant number of Republicans in both houses will develop enough backbone to defy Ryan and McConnell and defend their country.

[sarisataka]

13. Sure, no problem

All that needs to happen is the House Judiciary needs to bring forwards Articles of Impeachment. Republicans outnumber Democrats 26-17 but it shouldn't be any problem.

The the easiest step is the House. It will only take 218 votes to get the Articles approved. With Republicans holding 238 of the seats a mere 25 will have to vote for impeachment. (Democrats only have 193 seats with some vacant.)

The Senate is a bit bigger hurdle, needing 66 votes to convict. Dems and Independents have 48 seats so we will need quite a few Republicans to vote for impeachment. I'm sure all of the speculation and condemning rumors from "sources" will convince them to convict.

Then we have President Pence.

Should happen any minute now...

[Foamfollower]

15. Impeachment is, by design, an entirely political process.

If the political will within the country is so strongly in favor of impeachment, political survival will trump party loyalty every time and impeachment, followed by conviction, will occur.

That a sitting president was willing to commit obstruction of justice, now documented as fact, less than one month into his term indicates far more severe crimes were, in fact, committed.

The political will on this one will be STRONG.

[MedusaX]

16. Yes, if the sealed indictment for 45 is presented on or about the same time that a few other KGOP

Are taken into custody -- thanks to grand jury indictments for their actions in all of this ...,

Once a couple or more KGOP invertebrates become the 'example' of how the justice system is supposed to work...

It should not take much arm twisting to get enough AYE's...

[Tatiana]

17. Impeachment? Yes. Too many Rs trying to save their seats.

Conviction? Not certain at this point. Can't count on Graham or McCain, which we really need. If there was a tie, Pence would be the tie-breaker. So It may be to our advantage to time things to coincide just prior to the 2018 elections, barring some severe national threat that the deep state cannot manage.

[Locut0s]

19. This has been my feeling as well...

Although I've just been basing it on an educated guess and "feel". It seems to me that impeachment may not be too high of a hurdle to cross, assuming more shit drops which it's doing daily anyway. But conviction, that seems like a potentially thorny one. Any other time in history with the news that's been coming out I would say, probably. But these guys seem to be willing to go down with the ship so long as they get to loot the corpse of the sinking SS Americana.

[Adrahil]

18. Assuming the memo is as reported....

The GOP had better hope that either Trump resigns, or is succesfully impeached. Otherwise they will be eviscerated.