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Sun May 21, 2017, 12:02 PM

2018 US House Election- Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats.

Democrats need to worry about holding onto
MN-1 (Open-Walz-D)
Democrats need to pick up
MT(Vacant-Zinke-R)Special Election on May 25, 2017. +1D
GA-6 (Vacant-Price-R)Special Election on June 20, 2017. +2D
AZ-2 (McSally-R)+3D
CA-10 (Denham-R)+4D
CA-21 (Valadao-R)+5D
CA-25 (Knight-R)+6D
CA-39(Royce-R )+7D
CA-45 (Walters-R)+8D
CA-48(Rohrabacher-R)+9D
CA-49 (Issa-R)+10D
CO-6 (Coffman-R)+11D
FL-26 (Curbelo-R)+12D
FL-27 (Open-Ros-Lehtinen-R) +13D
IL-6 (Roskam-R)+14D
IL-13 (Davis-R)+15D
IA-1 (Blum-R)+16D
IA-3 (Young-R)+17D
KS-2 (Open-Jenkins-R)+18D
KS-3 (Yoder-R)+19D
ME-2 (Poliquin-R)+20D
MI-8 (Bishop-R)+21D
MI-11 (Trott-R)+22D
MN-2 (Lewis-R)+23D
MN-3 (Paulsen-R)+24D
NE-2 (Bacon-R)+25D
NJ-7 (Lance-R)+26D
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R) +27D
NY-19 (Faso-R)+28D
NY-22(Tenney-R)+29D
NY-24 (Katko-R)+30D
PA-6 (Costello-R)+31D
PA-7 (Meehan-R)+32D
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)+33D
PA-16 (Smucker-R)+34D
TX-7 (Culberson-R)+35D
TX-23 (Hurd-R)+36D
TX-32 (Sessions-R)+37D
VA-10 (Comstock-R)+38D


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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:04 PM

1. hopefully Georgia reduces that

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:07 PM

2. Somebody should make that into a screensaver for Democrats

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:13 PM

3. 2 Illinois seats...not possible...gerrymandering.

Both Roskam and Davis ...Il 6 & 13...both won their seats by close to 60% to 40%...those are not, to be honest (if that is the name of the game) going to turn Democratic. Forget them...not a chance... Here is a link to those numbers..Look for yourselves.

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/house/illinois/

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Response to Stuart G (Reply #3)

Sun May 21, 2017, 01:16 PM

11. Remember the Republican US House Members that won in 2004 with 60% but got defeated in 2006?

Hayworth-AZ-5
Pombo-CA-11
Johnson-CT-5
Shaw-FL-22
Leach-IA-2
Ryun-KS-2
Northup-KY-3
Gutknect-MN-1
Bradley-NH-1
Bass-NH-2
Kelly-NY-19
Sweeney-NY-20
Hart-PA-4
Weldon-PA-7
Fitzpatrick-PA-8
Which of these Republican US House Members were not corrupt or did not represent a Democratic leaning District?

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Response to Stuart G (Reply #3)

Sun May 21, 2017, 01:27 PM

12. IL 13 was downgraded to leaning GOP the day after that ACA repeal vote.

Rump got 50% in IL13. Romne was pretty much a split when he ran. Davis did not exactly have the "sweeping victory" that gets claimed in some quarters.

I appreciate the insight analysis od the voting history gives, but those numbers are not fixed in concrete. The day after that ACA repeal vote district was opined by Cook Political Report to have shifted to "Leaning GOP" rather than staying the solid Republican designation that it had been prior to that. (Roskam went to a "Likely R" designation also, I might add.) There is currently an active and visible movement afoot in the 13th to "Repeal and Replace Rodney" and it shows NO signs of slowing down in the near future. Davis does nothing to sooth that, either. His PR is lackluster at best. He's refused utterly to hold any sort of public forums or meetings and has openly referred to protesters as being paid and unworthy of his time.

I also want to point out that Callas (who ran against Devis in the year Romney ran) seriously under performed that year. There was an appreciable drop off in her numbers, and when you look at historic Dem performance in the district it's glaring. This last election for Davis had a Dem candidate that did not present well, with a campaign that was both underfunded and without management. Candidate selection has not exactly been the best here in the past couple elections.

The 13th is a gerrymandered mess, there's no way other way to say it. It is maybe not quite as strongly GOP as they like to brag that it is, however, and Davis is in no way the master of politics that seems to be the outside opinion. With work I think the 13th can be flipped.


Laura

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Response to davsand (Reply #12)

Sun May 21, 2017, 01:43 PM

13. According to the history of the 13 Dist..It has always been Republican...look at these names.

Representative

Term in office

Name....................when in office........Birth Date......age.

Donald Rumsfeld........ 1963 - 1969..... .July 9, 1932 (age 84)
Harris W. Fawell......l.. 1985 - 1999 .......March 25, 1929 (age 88)
Judy Biggert.............. 1999... 2013........August 15, 1937 (age 79


NOTE: all 3 of these jerks were Republicans....say...what about that top name....?
another ......Donald..............ever hear of that asshole???? I seem to remember, but my memory is foggy.............................Oh, I checked it out...yes...here is a link, you can see for yourself..It is that asshole!!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Rumsfeld

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Response to Stuart G (Reply #13)

Sun May 21, 2017, 03:56 PM

15. That district was redrawn in 2011 for the 2012 election.

The 13th was Chicago burbs from 2001 to 2011 it was Orland Park, Downer's Grove etc. (Parts of DuPage, Will, and Cook, essentially.) In 2011 the 13th came downstate. Those old guys you talk about would have ended up in the 12th back in 1971. In 2001 much of what had been the old 13th ended up in what is mostly the 11th now. There is no part of the current 13th that was ever even a tiny part of the any previous 13th district! :O

You have to love Illinois politics!

The 13th now is downstate with slices of Springfield, Normal, Decatur, Champaign Urbana, and Metro East included with a lot of rural area thrown in. Visualize a wad of Red with Islands of Blue scattered around. Not great turf but certainly not the worst I've seen either. (Look at the 15th if you really want to feel ill. Shimkus is an absolute fundy asswipe, and given how gerrymandered that district is, the only hope I see there is to take him out with a moderate Republican. It is the garbage dumpster of the state.

I'm not deny that flipping that seat is gonna take work. It will. But it is worth taking on simply because Davis has never REALLY been road tested. The pressure is on him now, and he's making mistakes--getting snappy and nervous. It is well worth it to keep on pushing his buttons. This project has helped with that: https://www.google.com/#q=%22flat+rodney%22


Laura

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:13 PM

4. Not sure of the differential in '16 but...

I hear rumblings of dissatisfaction among:

WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R–Camas)
WA-5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R–Colville)
WA-8 Dave Reichert (R–Auburn)

Particularly in 5 & 8, video has circulated of anger over the healthcare vote. ACA helped WA state quite a bit, even in the red districts.

I think we could flip at least one of these.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #4)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:16 PM

5. That's why

Captain courageous voted to NOT do away with the ACA.
Reichert knows his days are numbered.

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #5)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:19 PM

7. I'm in a neighboring district...

Hopefully his time is at an end this cycle. He's been avoiding town halls and such.

They tried to set him up with a red district, but I think too much of it is in Auburn and the I-90 corridor.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #4)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:38 PM

8. Could we make the Congressional Delegations in WA entirely Democratic.

WA-3,WA-5,and WA-8 are doable but what about WA-4.

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Reply #8)

Sun May 21, 2017, 02:04 PM

14. I'm all for it...

however, there were a lot more Trump signs than I expected last year.

4 is perhaps the most rural of districts in the state. OTOH, there's a lot of agriculture in that district that will be hurt by the Mexican bans and general anti-immigrant stance. They'll probably stick with a traditional, pre-Trump stance that is publicly anti-immigrant but desirous of the cheap labor on the sly.

Our districts are not that badly gerrymandered, since we use a three part commission (both major parties plus a judge) to draw them.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #4)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:46 PM

10. WA-03 is on the DCCC list

CAn't speak for the others, but I worked in that district last year (LD-17) and follow news from it.

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:18 PM

6. Let's get to work.

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Sun May 21, 2017, 12:43 PM

9. PA-6 is my district and one of those districts horribly gerrymandered to help the Repukes

I'll be doing my best to get Costello out. This district is still winnable but we'll need a good candidate.

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