Sanders raises stakes in tight Montana race

[DonViejo]

By Erica Chenoweth, Evan Perkoski, Jeremy Pressman and Ches Thurber May 22 at 6:00 AM

By Kathleen McLaughlin and David Weigel May 21 at 5:39 PM

BUTTE, Mont. — For months, Democrats were careful not to promise too much about Montana’s May 25 special election. Hillary Clinton had lost the state by 20.2 points. Rob Quist, the folk-singing Democratic candidate for Congress, had never run for office before. Losing a close race would grant a moral victory; raising the stakes and losing might give Republicans a boost.

On Saturday, in front of 3,000 cheering voters at this Democratic city’s Civic Center, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) raised the stakes.

“The eyes of the country, actually eyes all over the world, are on the great state of Montana,” said Sanders. “People are asking: Is it possible for working people, for seniors, for ordinary people, to come together and successfully defeat a candidate of the millionaires? They’ll know it if you do it in Montana.”

Sanders’s much-anticipated visit kicked off the final stretch of voting in a race that has become closer than either party might have expected. Quist, 69, has raised more than $5 million, nearly doubling the last Democratic candidate for Montana’s sole House seat. Millions of dollars have poured in for Greg Gianforte, 56, a software entrepreneur who won the GOP nomination after narrowly losing the 2016 race for governor — running nearly 10 points behind Donald Trump.

The result, in the final days, is a dogfight between Democrats who’ve bet on a flawed but compelling populist, and Republicans who worked hard and early to protect their structural advantage — and exploit Quist’s flaws. And the final votes will be cast just hours after the Congressional Budget Office reveals the new score for the American Health Care Act, which Quist has campaigned hard against and Gianforte has struggled to defend.

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[Me.]

1. Great Oh Great

Raises the stakes

[Foamfollower]

2. Well, there goes another special election down the drain.

[MineralMan]

3. Everyone keep their fingers crossed on this race.

It will all depend on turnout. Montana is one of our least populous states, and turnout will be everything.

If the Democrat loses, it won't be Bernie's fault, either.

[mopinko]

4. i dunno. it wouldnt look good.

for the people who insisted he would have won, i think they were depending on just such a shift.
not saying the loss would/should be pinned on him. just sayin it shows he isnt the miracle worker some are sure he would have been.

conversely, i dont think he should get all the credit if quist wins, but some will give it to him anyway.

[MineralMan]

5. I don't think that Bernie Sanders is as powerful a voice

as many of his supporters do. Despite his endorsement of Hillary Clinton, many of his supporters either didn't vote at all or voted for third party candidates. Enough to throw the election to Trump in PA, MI, and WI anyhow.

In these special elections, I don't really think national endorsements matter much at all, frankly. In Montana, especially, with its very small population, small shifts in turnout could send the election either way. Since that seat has been reliably Republican for some time, it will take a seriously large turnout of Democrats who don't usually vote and a seriously small turnout of GOP votgers to defeat the GOP candidate.

Can Senator Sanders make such a thing happen there? I don't think so. The voters in Montana will decide for themselves, I have no doubt. If Quist wins, it will be because of Donald Trump, not endorsements by prominent Democrats. That's the only factor that has the power to keep GOP voters home and get Democratic voters to vote.

That's just my opinion, of course.