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Wed May 24, 2017, 12:15 PM

 

Democrats Don't Need Trumps Voters To Retake The House

"Stop me if youíve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: ďMost Trump voters still support Trump.Ē Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people donít ďregretĒ voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: Trump still has the support of his base, which means Democrats havenít cracked the Trump nut yet.

But hereís the thing: Democrats donít need to crack that nut by 2018; Trump can hang on to most ó if not all ó of his base, and Democrats could still clean up in the midterm elections. Checking in with Trumpís supporters is worthwhile. But donít mistake their level of satisfaction for a political prediction.

Letís start with the basic fact that Trump won just 45.9 percent of the vote in 2016. That doesnít make his victory any less legitimate ó winning (the Electoral College) with less than a majority is still winning ó but Trump has a smaller base than every president elected since 1972, except for Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump voters are not a majority.

More importantly for the sake of 2018, they donít represent the majority of voters in the majority of congressional districts. Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-dont-need-trumps-voters-to-retake-the-house/

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Arrow 20 replies Author Time Post
Reply Democrats Don't Need Trumps Voters To Retake The House (Original post)
ehrnst May 2017 OP
dalton99a May 2017 #1
elleng May 2017 #2
ehrnst May 2017 #5
elleng May 2017 #12
ehrnst May 2017 #15
Hortensis May 2017 #16
beachbum bob May 2017 #3
crazycatlady May 2017 #13
beachbum bob May 2017 #17
world wide wally May 2017 #4
progressoid May 2017 #6
treestar May 2017 #7
ehrnst May 2017 #9
NorwayLover May 2017 #8
ehrnst May 2017 #10
NorwayLover May 2017 #11
crazycatlady May 2017 #14
NurseJackie May 2017 #18
JustAnotherGen May 2017 #19
JustAnotherGen May 2017 #20

Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:16 PM

1. Don't waste time and money on them

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:17 PM

2. Oh right!

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Response to elleng (Reply #2)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:35 PM

5. How are we going to win over the confederate flag wavers, the militia types?

 

The ones that screamed, "build the wall" and post anti BLM memes all over FB...

If you have a theory, please share.

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Response to ehrnst (Reply #5)

Wed May 24, 2017, 02:28 PM

12. Not likely 'radicals' will 'come over,'

but LOTS are subject to seeing the real world around them; that's what got them to go over, their real world experience.

See this, as an example:

NY's 9th Assembly District Flips To Democrats; Pellegrino Defeats Gargiulo
Donald Trump won the Long Island district by 23 points.

https://patch.com/new-york/massapequa/9th-assembly-district-flips-democrats-pellegrino-defeats-gargiulo

AND

Democrats Just Flipped Seats In 2 Districts That Voted For Donald Trump
GOP candidates lose special elections in New York and New Hampshire.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-win-two-elections_us_59250144e4b0ec129d3082d0?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003

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Response to elleng (Reply #12)

Wed May 24, 2017, 03:20 PM

15. That's going to produce results in districts that voted for Hillary, or were very close.

 

But not in deep red DT country.

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Response to elleng (Reply #12)

Wed May 24, 2017, 03:25 PM

16. Likeliy more who didn't vote are coming forward than

who voted but are switching. Need hard data on that, of course, but polls show rump voters are, as expected, holding loyal in extremely high numbers, whereas the numbers who didn't vote and regret it now are very significant.

Huge advantages cons have are their desire for conformity and formation into cohesive groups to fight threats from outside. If a conservative signer of the Declaration of Independence said something about hanging, instead of Franklin, it would have been more on the lines of "We must indeed all hang together because, most assuredly, doing anything but is out of the question."

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:27 PM

3. A unified democratic voting base can win everywhere, especially as

 

Trump supports shrinks to the 30% or less level

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #3)

Wed May 24, 2017, 02:43 PM

13. I worry the Democratic base won't unify

THere will be too much infighting about how Candidate X is not progressive enough or will whine because Bernie endorsed Candidate A in the primary.

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Response to crazycatlady (Reply #13)

Wed May 24, 2017, 03:42 PM

17. If we can't be a big tent party then we deserve to lose and we all need th STFU

 

Pettiness will destroy America and our kids future.

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:33 PM

4. A+. 100% !

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:35 PM

6. GET OUT THE FUCKING VOTE!!

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:37 PM

7. Great, that means

we can pick the districts and go after those voters, rather than deplorables per se.

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Response to treestar (Reply #7)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:39 PM

9. We can pick the districts that are flippable, that went Hillary in 2016. (nt)

 

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:39 PM

8. Ah, But I'm in the Mood to Kick a Little Ass

Sounds good to me.

I do think, though, that it would behoove all of us to swell the ranks anyway. If every registered Democrat were able to get just one other voter registered as a Democrat, it would be a game changer with lasting repercussions across the board.

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Response to NorwayLover (Reply #8)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:41 PM

10. I don't care what they do or don't register as.

 

As long as they vote Democrat.

There may be lots of unaffiliated voters, but most voters vote one party most of the time.

Welcome to DU!

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Response to ehrnst (Reply #10)

Wed May 24, 2017, 12:44 PM

11. Yes

That's my plan!

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Response to NorwayLover (Reply #8)

Wed May 24, 2017, 02:46 PM

14. NOt all states have partisan registration

And it is a very inaccurate measure. There are many 'Demosaurs' that registered as Democrats ages ago yet today might as well wear white hoods.

AS far as new voters--- convincing Gen Z (born roughly 1995-2010) as they come of age is key.

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Wed May 24, 2017, 04:18 PM

18. I'm delighted to see this. It's good to have confirmation that....

... contradicts all the handwringers and naysayers.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #18)

Thu May 25, 2017, 05:15 AM

19. +1

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Response to ehrnst (Original post)

Thu May 25, 2017, 05:21 AM

20. Great article

This:


Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House."


24. We can do it.

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