2018/2020 US Senate Election
2020 is the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
In 2018, Democrats pick up AZ (Flake-R loses in the Republican primary to Ward-R, Ward-R loses in the general to Abboud-D or Freise-D) and NV (Heller-R loses in the general to Marshall-D or Titus-D). Democrats will come up short in TX (Cruz-R defeats O'Rourke-D by a single digit margin.) Democratic incumbents in IN (Donnelly-D),MO (McCaskill-D),and ND (Heitkamp-D) have a 50 percent chance of getting re-elected. Democratic incumbents in FL (Nelson-D),MT (Tester-D),OH (Brown-D),and WV (Manchin-D) are favored to win re-election. Democrats will end up with between 46 to 50 seats in 2019 depending on what happens in AZ,IN,MO,and ND.
In 2020, the most vulnerable Democratic US Senators are Shaheen (NH) and Warner (VA). Both are likely favored to win re-election in 2020 by a wider margin than in 2014. Democrats are likely to pick up CO (Hickenlooper-D or Polis-D defeats Gardner-D), NC (Stein-D defeats Tillis-R), MT (Bullock-D or Schweitzer-D defeat Daines-R) and ME (if Collins-R retires) and TX (if Cornyn-R retires and Castro-D or O'Rourke-D).
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