Can anybody see a Sino-Franco-German alliance?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Between Macron's and Merkel's antipathy for Trump and Xi Jinping 's Silk Road initiative they would be powerful trading partners.


America would become just "another" country and Russia too.

[roamer65]

1. I see a Franco-German alliance and a Sino-Russian one.

The EU will be public front for the Franco-German and SCO will be the one for the Sino-Russian one.

Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia. Orwell just about nailed it.

[dalton99a]

2. +1

[roamer65]

3. My bigger question is which side will Britain choose?

I can see a rescinding of the Brexit referendum and European Economic Area status for the U.K. in the cards.

[dalton99a]

4. I can't see the Brits choosing China or Russia over Europe

[roamer65]

6. Definitely. I don't think they will choose the US either.

Too much trade with continental Europe.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The Brits will be in the wilderness with America, just one nation among many.

[dalton99a]

13. Yep.

Their EU option is gone.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Russia's a loser. They don't make anything and they can't afford to buy anything.

[roamer65]

7. They "produce" one big thing.

Natural gas.

The Chinese have negotiated very large deals with them for natural gas. Huge deals as our idiot in chief would say.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I stand corrected. They are a big gas station.

[roamer65]

16. Pretty much. They soon will be under the boot of Beijing.

The energy needs of China will eventually swallow them.

[PufPuf23]

50. Russia has massive amounts of natural resources in general.

Besides natural gas they are the world's leading producer of oil, more than Saudi.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

Russia has tremendous mineral wealth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-resource-rich-countries-2010-4#russia-1636-billion-in-metal-and-ore-reserves-14

Russia has by far the largest inventory of commercial forests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_forest_area

The problem that Russia has is transportation to markets and development of the various reserves.

Note the difference between production (current output) and what is in reserve (identified but not yet exploited).

[Blue_true]

34. Yuuge, it's yuuge! 😅 nt

[dalton99a]

9. Not anything that anybody wants to buy, except oil, gas and arms

Obama nailed it

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. You would think with their proficiency in hacking they could build software and computers.

Proves the old adage that it's easy to burn down the barn than build one.

[exboyfil]

26. They obviously have a very strong tradition in math

and the physical sciences. It seems logical it would extend to computer science even though, to this point, they have not been a player in that field.

[gordianot]

10. Russia is linked with Exxon Mobil.

They want to become Saudi Arabia of the 21st Century. Trump wants to get out of the money laundering business.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That is why Trump wants to kill green energy.

Cui bono.

[haele]

22. China doesn't trust Russia

They've got their own gangster/corruption problems, and there's a strong cultural antipathy between them, not the least driven by an inherant nationalistic and somewhat racist history that both have experienced.

Haele

[exboyfil]

27. Both seek hegemony and share a long common border

There is no way way that they will form a long term alliance. I am still shocked about Germany and France, and I am awaiting that coming apart eventually (or France being subsumed).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. A smart leader or at least a Machivellian one would exploit that tension.

Any way if you had to bet on which nation had the better future one would bet on China.

[Adrahil]

25. Yup.

And the USA will Ayn Rand itself into irrelevance.

[workinclasszero]

36. Trump and his party

Are working overtime on that process.

[Hortensis]

14. Well, power is becoming increasingly diffused away from nations

and their governments; and whatever they are, tomorrow's power alliances won't be nearly as strong and effective as those of the past.

As for America becoming "just another country," just can't imagine it. We're hugely wealthy and powerful. We literally have half of the planet's billionaires. California's economy alone is larger than Russia's. No matter how badly we behave, we can't be shunted aside.

Plus, frightened of the "crazy US" as Europe is now, in future they'll likely end up just as disinclined to handle all their own security, not to mention paying to put out global fires, as they were in the past -- if we are willing to continue/resume our prior role. I hope they are forced into fairly permanently assuming more responsibility and cost, but...we know they can be bought, and our military is...well, really, really yoooge. And theirs' are not.

And for all our faults, no major nation/alliance of the past can begin to match our record of intervention for stabilization, rather than for taking over, certainly not France for instance. Although we're currently destroying a global military and economic stability built on decades of reliance on us playing our role, history is still on our side.

[roamer65]

15. IMHO, the United States will revert back to the status it held circa 1900.

Via the Monroe Doctrine, the major power of the Western Hemisphere.

That is if the country stays united, of course.

[Blue_true]

32. I can see us breaking up into two pieces. A progressive-moderate half

and a reactionary, conservative half.

[nikibatts]

18. Yeah...we are already out of the TPP and the impact of that is going to hit pretty soon.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. The TPP is a sensitive subject here... It was a hedge against China.

Instead of us getting favorable deals with the signatories, now China will.

It would be great for the people of China if political liberalization followed economic liberalization. My friend taught at a prestigious Chinese university. He said it's fifty years away. A lot of the Chine elite send their children here to be educated.

The sad thing is with Trump we are no longer a role model. Of course we were flawed but now it's like we don't even try. I would to think America is just a big piece of real estate.

[Warpy]

19. Not yet. After all, the Silk Road goes through Turkey and the 'stans

I would love it if we became just another country, ceding our Empire to some other fool country who wants one. I would desperately love to see us retreat from around the world military bases into our own borders, cutting expenditures on the Penagon and freeing up billions to repair or replace our infrastructure, which needs it badly. I would love to have the nice things that Empire prevents, like basic health insurance for all.

It's just a pipe dream, of course, until and unless we figure out how to wrest all the money stolen from working people away from the billionaires. It might take a financial meltdown to do that.

However, dumping Empire would be a great first step to getting our country back from global game players.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Color me a hopeless idealist. I do believe in American exceptionalism.

That our balance between individual initiative and collective responsibility, the rule of law, pluralism, and free elections make us a beacon to the world.

[k8conant]

23. Would that we had decency and compassion to go along with that!

We will never be "exceptional" in a good sense, because many other countries have gone far beyond us while we quibble about whether the dollar is our king.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. " Would that we had decency and compassion to go along with that! "

Covered under collective responsibility:


"... That our balance between individual initiative and collective responsibility..."

-DemocratSinceBirth

I want you do your level best but if you stumble I am there to help you.

[k8conant]

45. I don't think that covers it now...

not with the 45ers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. No. The Deplorables took American exceptionalism outside and beat it with a stick.

[exboyfil]

29. You know that beacon that fought fascism in the East and West

that is gone. We are now the fascists (not that we were ever free of our own original sins).

[First Speaker]

24. An interesting notion...Richelieu--and De Gaulle--would have jumped at the chance...

...Bismarck might have complied, but he'd have had an informal understanding with Russia to go along with it. Weird how history keeps rhyming...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Remember when DeGaulle said the Force DeFrappe was pointed in our direction and Russia.

[luvMIdog]

28. China does A LOT of trade with other countries like Australia for one it does make me wonder

[Blue_true]

30. Yes, I do. China is in step with Europeans on the climate.

And China is slowly, really too slowly, cleaning up it's human rights record. I can see the EU working more with China on many issues of worldwide impact as long as it is not going to war.

[exboyfil]

31. I don't think it was the right forum or approach

and surely not the right messenger, but the sentiment that Europe pay for its own defense is the correct one. The thing that contradicts Trump's approach is the 10% increase to the military budget. That makes no sense (other than as part of the base political log rolling).

[WinkyDink]

38. No, the sentiment is not right. The United States cannot be isolationist.

And Europe cannot overpower the might of Russia.

[exboyfil]

39. Why can't they spend 3-4% of their GDP on their own defense?

It is not being isolationist. If they did that then Russia would not be a threat to them. Germany at 1.2%. France at 2.1%. UK at 1.9%. Western Europe is no longer weak. It hasn't been weak in a very long time.

The best opportunity for the U.S. was after the Wall came down. Unfortunately that is not the direction Bush I and Clinton chose to go.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. The only thing Germany and France lack is the will.

Germany and France both have larger and infinitely more diversified economies than Russia. Russia has 8,000 nukes but France has 300 nukes and Germany can go nuclear in a New York minute. In an anarchic world which is what Trump and the Deplorables are jonesing for the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

In any case the Russians aren't going to roll their tanks through Europe. They just want to Finlandize Europe. European nations can have their own domestic policies but Russia would control their own foreign policies.

[Ezior]

49. Germany's 1.2% is not very well spent

I don't know what exactly they're doing with all that money, but we don't have a lot of military gear. And the few hundred tanks and couple of planes that we have don't work very well. Even our guns fail to shoot straight.

We have no aircraft carriers and no nukes.

I guess the soldiers get some good training, which is a start.

[democratisphere]

33. Sure. Any country but America.

[Xolodno]

35. No. But you have some sub-alliances already...and no doubt, more to follow.

There is already a deep military alliance with the Nordic countries. No doubt there will be increased ties that go from Spain-France-Germany-Poland and then south to Italy. No thanks to 45.

Russia and China have a strong economic and military partnership, they need each other and share a paranoia.

Just speculating here, but if NATO did dissolve, wonder what would happen to the frozen conflict between Turkey and Greece. Russia has cozyed up to both. You still have the Cyprus question and the issue of Istanbul/Constantinople.

[WinkyDink]

37. No.

[Doreen]

44. No

I have always said that no matter how much others want to believe they are, China is not our friend. Yes, we have a lot of financial dealing with each other but that does not mean they are our friends. No one talks about it but I think we should be as worried about China as we are about Russia. They are one of the least humanitarian countries in the world and would never fit in well with Germany and France. Yes, I know Germany and France has some dealings with them but I do not think it is to the extent the U.S has with them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. IMHO China is more capable of liberalization than Russia

[Calista241]

46. China's top three trading partners are the US, Japan and South Korea

That's not going to change anytime soon.