Latest YouGov poll on the UK election...just out in the last few hours:

[Ken Burch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/870025022760513536/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2017%2Fmay%2F31%2Fgeneral-election-2017-may-corbyn-bbc-debate-campaign-personal-politics-live

Conservatives 42%
Labour 39%
Liberal Democrats 7%
UKIP 4%
Others(including Greens, the national parties in Wales and Scotland, and the Northern Irish parties) 8%

The NARROWEST Tory lead shown so far in the campaign, with eight days to go 'til polling day.

[hrmjustin]

1. I don't know if it is accurate but if you look at the behavior of Tories in the past few days I

think numbers are moving.

But these good numbers for Labour depend on a high turnout among younger voters. From the new registration numbers it looks better for Labour, but they have to vote.

It should also be noted another poll had the Tories up by 12% today so take your pick.

[Ken Burch]

5. Yes, getting people to the polls is always the key thing, wherever you are.

I keep imagining Corbyn saying to the PLP "something is happening here, but you don't know what it is, do you, Mister Jones?".

[hrmjustin]

6. may seems to be her own worst enemy and Labour has decided deploy a strategy of

you can't give her the majority she wants. It seems to be working but UK polling isn't what it used to be.

[Ken Burch]

7. It's working a lot better than the approach the anti-Corbynites would have had Labour use:

"It's enough that it's US cutting your benefits, weakening your unions and sending your kids off to die in more useless wars against Arabs and Muslims".

[hrmjustin]

9. I am no fan of Corbyn but he and the party certainly have gotten their act together.

And May not showing up at the debate tonight I think will hurt her.

[Else You Are Mad]

2. I hope the snap election...

Backfires and Corbyn wins. It is looking more and more likely...

[Ken Burch]

3. Theresa May is probably banging her head on a wall at Number 10,

muttering "what the hell was I thinking?" into her half-empty fifty of gin.

[Else You Are Mad]

8. Especially..

After releasing the manifesto they did. What the hell was May thinking?! Not that I am complaining.

[roamer65]

4. I suspect a hung parliament may be in the cards.

If it tightens even further, definitely yes.

[Tiggeroshii]

10. "others" are all liberal-leaning parties, right?

which would give a labour coalition 54% of the vote? To UKIP and tories' 46?

[hrmjustin]

11. No and not necessarily.

Remember seats are not appointed by popular vote. It is a first past the post system so you don't need to win a majority of popular votes to have a majority government.

And the others are a mixture of liberal and right leaning national parties.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Right I was just talking about the raw votes not how they are apportioned

But I would like to know how each party would stand in a coalition government,l?

[hrmjustin]

13. Well the most likely partner for Labour would be the Scottish National Party, SNP.

The liberal Democrats could join as well if their votes are needed. If the Conservatives are just short of a majority they could work with the right wing MPs from Northern Ireland to maintain a working government. I think if the Conservatives go below 300 seats then they are in real danger of not being able to form a government.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. I just remember around 2009, was it the greens or libdems that partnered with Tories in a coalition?

I know clegg had quite a say in things for a short time

[hrmjustin]

15. The lib Dems but they have made clear that won't happen again because of Brexit.

[Tiggeroshii]

16. Yeah that was a disaster

[Ken Burch]

17. You need to remember that, due to the first-past-the-post electoral system

46% of the vote often doesn't translate into 46% of the seats.

Usually, unless the popular vote contest is extremely close, the party with the largest single share of the votes ends up with a majority of the seats.

The parties included in "other" are a weird mixture of left and right.

They include the Greens(usually more or less left), the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland(generally right-of-center, but some of them have made deals with minority Labour governments in the past)the Social Democratic and Labour Party of Northern Ireland(slightly left of center), Sinn Fein(which is theoretically "left-wing" on economic issues and social spending, but whose MPs never take the seats they win in Westminster elections because they believe that doing so would mean recognizing the legitimacy of British rule over "the six counties&quot and various minor parties and independent candidates in various parts of the UK that generally don't manage to win seats.