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EarlG

(22,050 posts)
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 11:34 AM Jun 2017

Republicans are whistling past the graveyard

Look at these results:

MONTANA AT-LARGE DISTRICT
2002: GOP wins by 32 points
2004: GOP wins by 32 points
2006: GOP wins by 20 points
2008: GOP wins by 32 points
2010: GOP wins by 27 points
2012: GOP wins by 11 points
2014: GOP wins by 15 points
2016: GOP wins by 16 points

*** 2017 SPECIAL ELECTION: GOP wins by 6 points ***

The average GOP margin of victory in that district over the last 8 cycles has been 23 POINTS.

Dems cut that to 6 POINTS this year.



KANSAS 4TH DISTRICT
2002: GOP wins by 24 points
2004: GOP wins by 35 points
2006: GOP wins by 30 points
2008: GOP wins by 31 points
2010: GOP wins by 22 points
2012: GOP wins by 31 points
2014: GOP wins by 33 points
2016: GOP wins by 31 points

*** 2017 SPECIAL ELECTION: GOP wins by 7 points ***

The average GOP margin of victory in that district over the last 8 cycles has been 30 POINTS.

Dems cut that to 7 POINTS this year.



GEORGIA 6TH DISTRICT
2002: GOP wins by 60 points
2004: No Dem candidate
2006: GOP wins by 44 points
2008: GOP wins by 37 points
2010: No Dem candidate
2012: GOP wins by 30 points
2014: GOP wins by 32 points
2016: GOP wins by 23 pointss

*** 2017 SPECIAL ELECTION: GOP wins by 4 points ***

The average GOP margin of victory in that district over the last 8 cycles has been 38 POINTS.

Dems cut that to 4 POINTS this year.



These are deep red districts. Democrats are massively overperforming this year compared to historical trends. Republicans can put on a brave face but if these swings are repeated nationwide next year they are in big trouble IMO.

52 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Republicans are whistling past the graveyard (Original Post) EarlG Jun 2017 OP
Useful information to see progress when we don't see results we want! Thank you! Eom Lyricalinklines Jun 2017 #1
k&r bigtree Jun 2017 #2
When we start awarding seats as participation medals, get back to me... Moostache Jun 2017 #3
Check your numbers, they don't support your contention... Wounded Bear Jun 2017 #5
Splitting hairs a bit... Moostache Jun 2017 #16
Funny, I don't see a lot of endzone dancing... Wounded Bear Jun 2017 #20
I think it is a day to celebrate getting close EarlG Jun 2017 #7
You r right but need some groupthink BootinUp Jun 2017 #10
Prior to the GOP wave in 2010 NewJeffCT Jun 2017 #12
His Presidency is likely to get worse leftstreet Jun 2017 #14
I'm with you. As long as we keep celebrating our small losses, Alice11111 Jun 2017 #23
You do realize we didn't win a special election Motownman78 Jun 2017 #41
The circumstances were much different then Alice11111 Jun 2017 #42
How? Motownman78 Jun 2017 #43
Please clearly explain how we were supposed to immediately win DEEP RED districts? LBM20 Jun 2017 #46
If I knew that, we would not have DT. What I do know is Alice11111 Jun 2017 #52
The OP is trying to be positive Motownman78 Jun 2017 #40
Please clearly explain how YOU would win in a DEEP RED district that has voted R for DECADES? LBM20 Jun 2017 #47
They really did explain how they would win Progressive dog Jun 2017 #50
It's only over if we give up... Wounded Bear Jun 2017 #4
Fair point....and there's 15 months of Trumpie to the midterms ! OnDoutside Jun 2017 #6
So, he should be able to do 3x as much damage as he has Alice11111 Jun 2017 #25
The longer he stays Pres the tougher the situation for the OnDoutside Jun 2017 #33
The net result is that the Democratic candidate still lost. PoindexterOglethorpe Jun 2017 #8
Yeah but EarlG Jun 2017 #13
The trend in everyone of those states is toward the Democrat. Blue_true Jun 2017 #19
Trend? The Democrat lost. PoindexterOglethorpe Jun 2017 #35
The trend is your friend. Plot the data at each election and see what that tell you. Blue_true Jun 2017 #39
I'll believe the trend when we have an actual Democratic majority in Congress. PoindexterOglethorpe Jun 2017 #44
Correct! Alice11111 Jun 2017 #26
Great post thank you. titaniumsalute Jun 2017 #9
K&R... spanone Jun 2017 #11
Yes, a good sign.. disillusioned73 Jun 2017 #15
Sorry, but there's nothing here to get all weak in the knees with ecstasy about. jcmaine72 Jun 2017 #17
I read something where Democrats won 7 of 7 Special Elections between 2009 and the election of 2010. Blue_true Jun 2017 #21
That's true moose65 Jun 2017 #30
Who's not aiming higher? EarlG Jun 2017 #22
I'm with you, EarlG. To get this close in those deep red districts has to be freaking catbyte Jun 2017 #24
I think we could have aimed higher, earlier. Much higher. Alice11111 Jun 2017 #28
John Ossoff has it right. People like Susan Serandon and Adam Green and Bernie Sanders are wrong. Blue_true Jun 2017 #18
To take a contrary opinion bucolic_frolic Jun 2017 #27
K&R!!!! So good to read real, positive stuff, instead of gloomy and sarcastic twaddle secondwind Jun 2017 #29
THIS IS WHAT WE NEED TO FOCUS ON!! WoonTars Jun 2017 #31
K&R mcar Jun 2017 #32
Good numbers! kentuck Jun 2017 #34
Winning by 1 point is the same as winning by 30 points oberliner Jun 2017 #36
I assume you do not get that the numbers are moving in a good direction. n/t USALiberal Jun 2017 #37
Do you see any of these seats going D in 2018? oberliner Jun 2017 #38
Great post. Mike Niendorff Jun 2017 #45
Great Post that is very interesting! Dem_4_Life Jun 2017 #48
I hope you're right. ecstatic Jun 2017 #49
Excellent post, buck up campers we can win njhoneybadger Jun 2017 #51

Moostache

(9,897 posts)
3. When we start awarding seats as participation medals, get back to me...
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 11:42 AM
Jun 2017

Until then, we still LOST all of them, again.

I would counter the positivist vibe by pointing out that we have the WORST first 4 months of any modern presidency and STILL can't win these districts...we may be at the closest we will EVER get.

Look at those numbers closely...they are NOT trends, where cycle over cycle the gap is closing. They are reflections of the current reality only...namely that even with the worst possible president in imagination, we STILL cannot wrestle away even one in 4. We lost them all.

It is not a day to celebrate getting close...close won't vote on the HealthCare repeal and Tax cut bill. Close won't change a single chairmanship or get a single article of Impeachment before the entire House.

Close is still just another loss.

Wounded Bear

(58,874 posts)
5. Check your numbers, they don't support your contention...
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 11:48 AM
Jun 2017

at least in two of the three districts listed.

MT4: 32, 32, 20, 32, 27, 11, 15, 16, 6

GA6: 60, DNP, 44, 37, 30, 32, 23, 4

YMMV, but I see trends there.

Moostache

(9,897 posts)
16. Splitting hairs a bit...
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 12:40 PM
Jun 2017

MT4:
32-32-20-32-27 (not a positive trend in any way)
Followed by:
11-15-16-6

And the one we lost by 6, the "winner" actually got caught literally beating up the press the night BEFORE the election...imagine had the roles been reversed...the Dem would have lost by 60 points...the gap narrowed significantly in 2002(?...from 27 to 11), but it was expanding again after that...

Anyway, I don't want to fight about it, I am salty as hell today having to read, hear and see GOP asshats everywhere spiking the football and doing end zone dances again...its really triggering a lot of pent up anger and rage I still have suppressed from November...I think I will go back to yelling at clouds for the rest of the day!



Wounded Bear

(58,874 posts)
20. Funny, I don't see a lot of endzone dancing...
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 01:04 PM
Jun 2017

just some commentary that we're getting closer. These were intensely red districts, and a lot of RW resources went to holding them.

While not popping any champagne corks just yet, I think this does bode well for other districts around the country that are not so died in the wool red.

As I said, YMMV.

EarlG

(22,050 posts)
7. I think it is a day to celebrate getting close
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 11:58 AM
Jun 2017

We're not going to kick butt in deep red districts. Getting this close is a huge deal.

You're right that these are not trends. That's the point. We haven't been getting anywhere near close to victory in any of these districts for years. And you are correct that with the worst four months of any modern presidency we may be at the closest we'll ever get.

But again, that's the point. If these swings are repeated across the country next year, Republicans will be in big trouble.

NewJeffCT

(56,830 posts)
12. Prior to the GOP wave in 2010
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 12:08 PM
Jun 2017

the Democrats won the 3 special elections leading up to the Nov 2010 debacle.

leftstreet

(36,122 posts)
14. His Presidency is likely to get worse
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 12:13 PM
Jun 2017

You make good points

I have nothing helpful to say other than it's probably about to get worse. And there's nothing GOPers hate more than being on the 'losing' side

Alice11111

(5,730 posts)
23. I'm with you. As long as we keep celebrating our small losses,
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 02:13 PM
Jun 2017

we are unlikely to start winning. Of course. We aren't allowed to discuss any of the reasons on here. Geez, when my kids acted badly, even unintentionally, I had a duty to correct them. Dems, put duck tape over their mouths and cotton in their ears, so we can't discuss anyway to improve.

Sure, the Republicans stole the election, what's new? Maybe it was a bigger steal this time. We have a Pres under investigation for obstruction, and we just lost 4 big seats. We fucking lost w practically the whole President's staff under investigation, and we are a laughing stock on the world stage. He publicly lies everyother day, and that's probably an understatement. He may get away with it in the US, but the world sees us as idiots, just like him now.

Keep the participation metals.

 

LBM20

(1,580 posts)
46. Please clearly explain how we were supposed to immediately win DEEP RED districts?
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 09:06 AM
Jun 2017

You do know these are DEEP RED districts that have voted HEAVILY REPUBLICAN and have HUGE Republican registration advantages right? So please articulate extremely clearly just how we were supposed to so easily flip these VERY VERY DEEP RED districts so easily? We competed hard and made HUGE gains, but they are VERY Republican districts. Please see the MATH here.

Alice11111

(5,730 posts)
52. If I knew that, we would not have DT. What I do know is
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 05:06 PM
Jun 2017

we aren't getting better as fast as the Repubs are.
We used to be better than the Repubs at winning
They looked in to what we were doing and got better.

I can't explain how else or what we need to do because it is not allowed in this forum. There is talk about it in the comments of the NYT, WaPo, and sometimes even the Guardian. Serious, good discussions in those places. Of couse, you can always read the not so smart screaming all over the web, but it isn't helpful.

 

LBM20

(1,580 posts)
47. Please clearly explain how YOU would win in a DEEP RED district that has voted R for DECADES?
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 09:10 AM
Jun 2017

Please imagine you were running in a district that has voted HEAVY REPUBLICAN for DECADES and has a MASSIVE REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE and tell us just exactly and precisely how YOU would run to win that district? Because that is just what we have been up against in all of these special elections. We have made BIG GAINS but such districts are VERY hard to win. Please prove otherwise. How would YOU have won?

Progressive dog

(6,940 posts)
50. They really did explain how they would win
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 11:12 AM
Jun 2017

They would run away from the majority of the Democratic party to please the Republican voters. (and no, that doesn't make sense to me either)

Alice11111

(5,730 posts)
25. So, he should be able to do 3x as much damage as he has
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 02:20 PM
Jun 2017

done in that short period...which will last 30 years. That's assuming that we win too. Plus, he would still be Prez. So far, that's not happening!

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,949 posts)
8. The net result is that the Democratic candidate still lost.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 11:58 AM
Jun 2017

Until we actually start taking seats away from the Republicans, it doesn't matter how close the election is.

The essential rule is that all you need is 50% of the vote plus one. Then you win. Until then we've still lost. The Republicans are still in the majority, and most of them in Congress are amoral monsters who don't actually care about real people.

EarlG

(22,050 posts)
13. Yeah but
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 12:10 PM
Jun 2017

Even if we'd won these three seats the GOP would still be in control of Congress so really what's the point?



Seriously though, do you really expect Democrats to waltz into deep red districts and walk out with a win? Again, look at those historical average margins of victory: 23 points. 30 points. 38 points. We cut those to 6, 7, and 4. But we didn't win them, so all is lost? I don't think so.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
19. The trend in everyone of those states is toward the Democrat.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 01:01 PM
Jun 2017

Even before 2017. Yes, we loose, but that won't continue to happen.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,949 posts)
35. Trend? The Democrat lost.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 08:31 PM
Jun 2017

Not loose, lose.

No matter how you slice it and dice it, things do not look good.

For quite a while now I've been reading that demographics are all in our favor. We still lose. Trump is still in office, still doing as much damage as he can. Republican leadership supports him.

And a remarkable number of people have bought into the total crap the Republicans have been preaching ever since Reagan: low taxes good, no taxes better. Poor people deserve to be poor. Rich people shouldn't have to pay taxes. Infrastructure? We don't need no stinking infrastructure!

They see absolutely no connection between who they vote for and the bad things that happen. They manage to continue to blame Democrats for everything. Not entirely sure why Democrats do such a lousy job of countering all this, but they do.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
39. The trend is your friend. Plot the data at each election and see what that tell you.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 09:31 PM
Jun 2017

The trend is clearly moving toward blue. I saw that happen in Orange County Florida. Took 20 years but the area is solidly blue today from red.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,949 posts)
44. I'll believe the trend when we have an actual Democratic majority in Congress.
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 12:53 AM
Jun 2017

Until then, Red Rules. Goddammit.

jcmaine72

(1,776 posts)
17. Sorry, but there's nothing here to get all weak in the knees with ecstasy about.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 12:47 PM
Jun 2017

Losing by 23 points is still an ass trouncing. Losing by 16 points is still an ass trouncing.

What have we become as Democrats at this point, the Bad News Bears...seeing the fact that we lost the game by 32 runs instead of 60 as some kind of victory? Sorry, but we need to be aiming a bit higher than this if we ever hope to unfuck this country.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
21. I read something where Democrats won 7 of 7 Special Elections between 2009 and the election of 2010.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 01:06 PM
Jun 2017

But still lost 63 seats in 2010. If the republicans overreach like they seem to be doing, 2018 will turn into a disaster for them. As for us, we need to work on our mindset and start voting in every election and voting early where that option is available so that our vote get recorded and we don't come down to one hit or miss day.

moose65

(3,174 posts)
30. That's true
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 02:43 PM
Jun 2017

It was practically a mirror image of this year. Between March 31, 2009 and May 18, 2010 there were 7 special House elections, and Democrats won all of them. They were: NY 20 (Gillibrand's seat); Illinois 5 (Rahm Emmanuel's seat); California 32 (Hilda Solis's seat); California 10 (Ellen Tauscher's seat); NY 23 (John McHugh's seat - flipped from R to D); Florida 19 (Robert Wexler's seat); Pennsylvania 12 (Murtha's seat). Dems won all of these - replacing the prior Dem in all but NY 23. So Republicans didn't win any of those blue seats, either, and still ended up shellacking us in November 2010!

There were a couple more in 2010: Hawaii 1st, that weird election where everyone was on the same ballot and a Republican slipped in and won (and subsequently lost in Nov. 2010), and Georgia 9 after Nathan Deal resigned to run for governor (replaced by another Republican). So Dems won 7 out of 9, and would have won in Hawaii were it not for that weird jungle election.

Special elections are no indicators of general election success!

EarlG

(22,050 posts)
22. Who's not aiming higher?
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 01:43 PM
Jun 2017

I'm saying that these results are a harbinger of bad news for Republicans in elections yet to come.

Put it this way: if a Dem squeaked out a narrow special election victory in a deep blue district which we'd been winning by 20+ points for the last couple of decades, and we had to throw millions and millions of dollars at that race in order to win, would you be celebrating, or would you be worrying about what that might mean for upcoming races in not-so-blue districts?

Now is the time to press the attack, not throw up our hands and say "meh."

catbyte

(34,625 posts)
24. I'm with you, EarlG. To get this close in those deep red districts has to be freaking
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 02:14 PM
Jun 2017

Republicans out. And I understand the frustration at not being able to flip any of these districts--I'm frustrated too--but I'm also realistic. What we need to concentrate on in 2018 are those districts that aren't deep red, but light red & purple. We may not be able to flip 70-80 seats, but 40 is certainly doable & will be enough to give us the majority.

I'll admit that I'm still traumatized as hell from the 2016 election, but I've gotten my fight back & I'm not about to give up. I think a huge issue will be if Republicans manage to destroy the ACA. The anger will be palpable & enough to bring voters out in droves.

Alice11111

(5,730 posts)
28. I think we could have aimed higher, earlier. Much higher.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 02:27 PM
Jun 2017

The DNC didn't even go in anywhere until Rachel Maddow started calling them out. The Dems were left to heroically struggle with state and local support.
Sure, most of us from everywhere pitched in to help the candidates. I'll continue to do that from afar.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
18. John Ossoff has it right. People like Susan Serandon and Adam Green and Bernie Sanders are wrong.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 12:59 PM
Jun 2017

The historical arc of progressive change is incremental. Anything else freak people out and cause them to become negatively reactionary. Democrats and Democratic leaning businesspeople need to focus on running moderate campaigns in red districts, winning, then bringing economic growth to the district that bring in younger people. Like the Orlando region and Tampa region in my state of Florida, red districts can be turned blue by a booming economy that bring in younger residents.

bucolic_frolic

(43,729 posts)
27. To take a contrary opinion
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 02:26 PM
Jun 2017

Republicans now know they will win deep red districts, so they can concentrate on
light red districts. If they see we're not spending our bankroll on deep red, they will
go light on them.

WoonTars

(694 posts)
31. THIS IS WHAT WE NEED TO FOCUS ON!!
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 03:09 PM
Jun 2017

Enough with the doom and gloom. The Dems weren't even supposed to be in the running and yet somehow we managed to force the gop to spend a ton of cash defending seats that should have been easy strolls...

I think this makes 2018 look more and more possible for a House victory, especially if Twitler is still in office and the rethugs throw 23 million people off healthcare...

kentuck

(111,111 posts)
34. Good numbers!
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 05:35 PM
Jun 2017

And I would not expect to wake up some morning and find that Trump has turned into some competent statesman...

Mike Niendorff

(3,476 posts)
45. Great post.
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 08:53 AM
Jun 2017

Thank you for doing the legwork to put together the numbers, this is EXACTLY the perspective needed to appreciate what has been accomplished in this special election cycle. The GOP advantage in these "safest of the safe" districts has been *decimated*.

And 2018 is approaching *fast*.


MDN

Dem_4_Life

(1,765 posts)
48. Great Post that is very interesting!
Thu Jun 22, 2017, 09:37 AM
Jun 2017

Do you have a link to check other districts? I'm curious to see some of the districts here in Texas in preparation for 2018.

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