When will the pro-Dem demographic shift kick in?

[Alhena]

2020? 2024? At what point will there be so many people of color that we don't have to worry about what angry white Trump fans think?

I was hoping it was 2016- sadly not.

[Ace Rothstein]

1. I think we're looking at 2 decades.

Even then it might not matter because of population distribution.

[Alhena]

2. Seriously? Trump's margin of victory was very small (assuming not hacked)

[Ace Rothstein]

3. A lot of it has to do with my second point.

These population changes aren't happening evenly across the board. You also have the issue of poor Latino/Hispanic turnout.

[OnDoutside]

4. When that happens, you'll probably find that Republicans will become the New Socialists. It's only

about winning.

[vi5]

5. Or we could...I don't know....

...start trying to figure out a way to win over the tens of millions of people who don't vote?

Maybe?

I just can't wrap my heads around this insane notion that our options are either "Appeal to white bigots" or "Don't change anything at all about anything we do."

At what point did being a politician stop being about...you know....selling ones ideas and figuring out ways to make them appealing or any of that.

Part of the reason the GOP has been kicking our ass for decades now is their use of people like Frank Luntz who tells them the best way to appeal to people and get them to vote for them beyond just hoping they have an intricate knowledge and understanding of policy wonksmanship.

We need someone like that on our side, but more importantly we need leaders who are going to actually listen to it.

[Mosby]

6. what shift?

The Hispanic population is increasing while participation is decreasing.



In the 2014 midterms barely 21% of eligible hispanics voted.



Young people? They don't give a shit, only 17% voted in the midterms.



The fact no one wants to face is the liberal base doesn't vote, so we live in a self created oligarchy.

[LeftInTX]

15. Yep...

[Joe941]

7. Let us not think that demographics are the answers...

policy is the key to winning a vote.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

8. A Couple Of Points

Conservatives are generally older people, and younger people tend to be more liberal. Old people eventually die, so I think you will see a bit of a shift as the years go by.

Also, as the population gets more diverse, you would think that the minority population (which tends to vote more liberal) would start to provide that shift you're talking about. The problem with that thinking is that the more minorities there are, the more angry white guys who hate them there will be, and they'll be even MORE motivated to get out there and vote to "protect white America" or whatever (and now, having an unabashed racist/racist-enabler in the White House has normalized racism to an extent, so they're not even ashamed of their biases anymore, or making any effort to hide them). So I don't know that an increase in the minority population will necessary lead to increased voting for liberal issues.

I've found that the only way to keep right-wing-oriented people from voting for the R after a candidate's name is for them to finally wake up and realize that right-wing policies are hurting THEM personally. Only then will they be motivated to NOT wave pom-poms at "their team." It happened in 2008; it can happen again. I just think the Trump policies haven't filtered down enough yet for them to really realize how badly they're being screwed PERSONALLY yet. But I do believe it will happen. Just wait until all the people who whined about Obamacare raising their premiums get their statements from their insurance companies after Trumpcare (or as I think it should be deemed, either the FUCA or the RIPCA) takes effect.

[haele]

9. When rural areas start getting more Democrats.

The problem is population density, not just "Angry White Fanboys". Thanks to 2010, and a combination of unverifiable electronic voting and the mid-term effect, a majority of the Democratic voters are locked into fewer districts than the majority of Republican Voters.

Unless the GOP power-grab backfires and we can flip a few states to be able to re-district in a more non-partisan manner in 2020, it won't be until 2030 that we might have a chance again.
2020 is a Presidential Election year. We might be lucky and get the turn-out.

Haele

[Crunchy Frog]

10. I wouldn't count on demographics to save us.

I think the focus needs to be on strong leadership from the Democratic party now.

There may not be anything left to save by the time the demographics change.

[DFW]

11. It won't kick in at all. It will gradually work its way up out of the darkness.

Unless Howard Dean injects his DNA into some very fit 30 year old, that is.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. It has already happened

The demographic shift was proposed to be enough by now. Whites as percentage of the electorate dropped from roughly 90% in 1980 to low 70s recently. The assessments often used low 70s as the tipping point. That's why you had Dick Morris asserting we'd never see another Republican president again. I wish. It was using the old estimates of how each block would vote. Those estimates went out the window when Obama turned off so many white working class voters post 2012 that the old math no longer applies. Now we need the hispanic numbers to remain lopsided in our favor, which is no guarantee.

That's always the danger when using the "emerging majority" type of forecasts. It's kind of remarkable how different segments shift around and the bottom line remains almost equally balanced.

[2naSalit]

13. When the many...

gerrymandered districts are properly redrawn.

[LBM20]

14. It already has. They just need to vote in higher numbers.

[LeftInTX]

16. No guarantee that Latinos will vote Democratic

They don't vote as a block.
Consider them more as an ethnic group such as Italian or Irish.

Once they move up in communities, like other ethnic groups they start to tend conservative.
Many are very religious and anti-abortion.
I know I live in that type of community.

[Baconator]

17. If you think it's just a race issue, you'll be waiting a long time...

[UTUSN]

18. I thought "pro Dem" referred to no-Dem-bashing *here*!1

[JI7]

21. it's happening all the time. look at virginia. and obama

The national elections are much closer with dems winning majority of the votes in all except one since 1992. And even the loss was a close race.

The support for trump is a backlash to the changes .