What the hell happened to Missouri?

[Proud liberal 80]

It went from a swing state to just another Alabama

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/02/us/naacp-missouri-travel-advisory-trnd/index.html

[madaboutharry]

1. Harry Truman would die all over again.

[JI7]

2. It's not much of a swing state.

[D_Master81]

3. I remember

I seem to remember 20 years ago they said Mizzou was a "bellweather state". I dont think its went blue in that long now

[Garrett78]

13. Me, too. I lived in St. Louis from birth until late 2003. It was often said...

...if you win Missouri, you win the White House.

Bill Clinton won MO pretty handily. Gore lost MO by just a few points in 2000 and Obama lost MO by just a hair in 2008. But it seems the tide turned by 2012 (I suppose 4 years of Obama had the bigots pretty damn motivated).

2016 was an absolute blowout. Still, I'm not quite ready to completely write off Missouri, Ohio or Iowa (especially not the latter 2). After all, Obama and McCain essentially tied in Missouri just 8 years ago. But if the results in those 3 states are similar (or worse) in 2020, they'll likely be lost causes for the foreseeable future. Hopefully Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina aren't lost causes, as well.

On the bright side, it would seem 3 'red' states (Arizona, Georgia and Texas) are now in play.

[AngryAmish]

20. It is still a bellwether state - the US is racist.

[edhopper]

4. Religion

The Evangelicals have soured people to progressive ideas.

[Wellstone ruled]

5. That and the rise of Paramilitary Groups

along the lines of the KKK. Good way to tell,look at the window stickers and bumper stickers.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Whites are still nearly 80% of the vote in Missouri

79% to be precise.

We have almost no chance in that setting, given how dramatically whites have shifted away. Missouri has a good percentage of blacks in Kansas City and St. Louis to hold down the Republican statewide margin somewhat, but few Hispanics or Asians. The tipping point variable is white women, who vote not much differently than white men in Missouri. Nationally the white female percentage was 52-43 in favor of Trump but in Missouri it was 61-34.

Nationally the ideology was 26% liberals to 35% conservatives. In Missouri it was 20% liberals to 41% conservatives. That's all that matters. The media does a laughably incompetent job at never spotlighting that category. They act as if the various states can magically swing one way or another. Nope, that ideological breakdown keeps them in place. For reference, in 2004 the Missouri exit poll revealed 19% liberals and 36% conservatives. That was at 89% whites in the electorate. So even though blacks have risen from 8% to 14% in 12 years in Missouri and the other non-white groups have jumped 4% net over the same period, it's still a sharply more conservative electorate. Rural whites have hard lined and not in our favor.

We had a senate candidate last year who fit the blueprint necessary in a state like that about as well as anyone but still lost by nearly 3%. I think Kander could have taken an open race but ousting an incumbent is extremely difficult.

[Glamrock]

8. Man,

the billboards there are priceless.

Stop abortion, Reagan said, stop abortion, gun store, Jesus is real, stop abortion, stop abortion, trump, gun store, Jesus is real.

[Wawannabe]

10. I am surprised by how many tRump

Supporters I have met and tRump signs I have seen north of Seattle WA

I just moved from Missouri and the racists there and N Arkansas are THICK!

I am still dumbfounded that the advisory was issued but believe that since the conceal carry permitting process was opened wide ...that a lot of minorities will want to keep from getting into any altercations with white males in MO!
N Arkansas too. Thick KKK. Thick.
This is generational teaching it is deeply, deeply rooted.

[pstokely]

14. usually down the road from porn shacks

there's still a semi trailer with a big tRump just down the road from a porn on I70 near Boonvile

[uponit7771]

18. Why are white women voting in those %'s for republicans?! Just ... wtf?!

[cojoel]

7. Unions used to be strong in Missouri too

At least in cities. Not so much any more.

[Willie Pep]

15. That is a big factor.

The same thing happened in West Virginia which used to be a Democratic stronghold but is now a deep red state. Also I suspect that many Yellow Dog Democrats have passed away and their children probably vote Republican.

[leftyladyfrommo]

9. I live here and I never see the stuff

they are talking about.

But I live in the city. I think Southern rural is bad.

[Wawannabe]

11. I'd bet my bank acct that it is more

Prevalent than you know in the cities.
Hell. Look at Ferguson? St Louis area.

Also. The rural area is right outside the city and the haters are there. Not just rural southern either. North of I 70 in Marshall MO you will hear the n word in public still. Used as derogatory. By white males.
Hannibal MO. Same.

Something been brewin for many years now. If you aren't black and don't hang with blacks - you probably wouldn't know.

[leftyladyfrommo]

16. I don"t know. I just know I don't see it here.

st. Louis is more big city than KC.

We do gave gang problems here in KC, Almost al l on the East side of town. there us a murder a day over there.

[logosoco]

21. I live SW of St. Louis. I grew up in the city and county.

I live in a neighboring county now and I have seen some positive changes here in the 27 years I have lived here.
There seems to be a large circle in the middle that is "off", but there are also some pockets in that circle that are good.
Standing up and pushing seems to be the best way to change things! But when people are that stuck and can't open their minds, that is hard and takes a while.

[Gabi Hayes]

12. Samantha Bee reveals the monster behind the MYRIAD

boilerplate laws resulting in situations similar to Missouri

In small towns all over the country! Then, when the lawsuits happen, guess who the idiots pay to defend (at taxpayer expense)?

You got it

He needs to be chained to the bottom of a cesspit for choleric rhinos

If you haven't seen this, you won't believe how pissed you're gonna be

I couldn't even finish it

[loyalsister]

17. Term limits

The first year they went into effect we lost the house. The margin was slim at that time. But, as more and more Democrats were termed out- republicans gained ground especially in rural areas.
As their majority has grown, they have set the tone. One of the first things they did when they had a super majority was do away with campaign limits. So, the republicans have a huge advantage every time a new seat opens up, and Democrats just don't have the funding to take them back.

They also created more opportunistic legislators. They are now using their experience and clout as legislators as a golden parachute to much higher paying lobbyists position. At which point they also write the bills and hand them off to new inexperienced members.

Our current governor epitomizes the most cynical opportunism. He is worse than Trump.

The state government made way for it back when there was a strong Democratic presense in the rural areas. The idea being smaller districts promote more interaction between citizens and representatives. It worked well until 2002 when we lost the House. There are 163 House districts across the state, giving rural MO the advantage. On top of that - guns. In 2000 a ballot measure for conceal carry was defeated. As soon as they could, republicans passed a law permitting it and far far beyond. It was another manifestation of spite against the cities.

[hatrack]

19. Fundamentalist Xtianity, Meth, Job Loss, Duck Dynasty Bullshit, Hate Radio . . . .

And as a result of all of the above and more, reflexive, redneck Republicanism is the order of the day.

[Scruffy1]

22. there are a lot of reasons.

The media has created two countries. One urban and sophisticated the other rural and not so much. Not only that they have glamorized the backwardness and ignorance of rural poverty and created a tribalism of redneckism. This started back in the 70's with the Country and Western type stuff and progressed right through to talk radio. It became fashionable to reject education and science and opt for "common sense". The school systems in a lot of rural areas simply have not caught up with technology and do a lousy job of preparing students for higher education. in nearly all the rural areas I've been in the are two classes. There are few well off lanholders and business owners and those that sare just scraping by.In a lot of ways rural poverty is much worse than urban, because rural areas lack things like public transportation and few job opportunities. This makes the ones who feel trapped and screwed over easy prey for demagogues who spew racism and bigotry or some conspiracy to blame for their problems. These people are no different than the rest of us, but the only thing they hear on the radi0 and TV is crap from the right wing and more crap from the likes of the History Channel.
I grew up in small towns in the South and Midwest and of course racism was common, but not the kind of vehemence formented by talk radio. Education was highly valued, not suspected by a cult of ignorance. These people are reachable but we need a message that gives them hope. We have relied on the urban centers to provide the majority for a long time and not gone after their vote as much in rural areas. I think the current health care debacle is a prime opportunity to go after votes in rural areas. Rural hospitals are struggling and would have mostly closed under Trump Care.The jobs issue is much thornier because these rural areas simply do not have the infrastructure or amenities to attract employers.They way I look at rurual votes in statewide elections that if you can gain a small percentage in the outstae it makes big difference. Remember, Al Franken won by about 300 votes. To give up on these areas is suicidal and our politicians need to learn how to talk to rural voters.

[MrsCoffee]

23. Lincoln is rolling in his grave.

“As a nation, we began by declaring that 'all men are created equal.' We now practically read it 'all men are created equal, except negroes.' When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”
― Abraham Lincoln, Lincoln Letters

He was pretty close. He just guessed the wrong religion.