Michael Moore: Trump on track for reelection

[DonViejo]

BY JOE CONCHA - 08/28/17 01:02 PM EDT

Liberal activist and filmmaker Michael Moore believes President Trump is on track to win reelection in 2020 despite his low approval poll ratings.

Moore encouraged Democrats to back a movement to award Electoral College votes to the national popular vote winner, saying it was the best way to keep Trump from getting reelected.

“I should say reappointed, because we will have an even larger population that will vote against him in 2020,” Moore said in an interview with Fast Company magazine published Monday. “But he will win those electoral states as it stands now.”

Trump lost the popular votes by more than 3 millions voters, but won in the Electoral College by a comfortable 306-232 margin. The real estate mogul won in states seen as Clinton’s blue wall, ones that have gone Democratic in several recent elections, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Moore, who was one of few prominent voices who predicted Trump would win in 2016, urged Democrats to accept an agreement adopted by 10 states and Washington, D.C., that awards each of their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote, called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

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http://thehill.com/homenews/media/348275-michael-moore-trump-on-track-for-reelection

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. IF he could actually win, by not cheating, reelection after all this, then I need

a good map.

Maybe a boat.

Probably a plane.

[annabanana]

2. "National Popular Vote Interstate Compact"

This seems like the only sure option until we can fix gerrymandering, which is a bear.

[Cosmocat]

3. 2018, 2018, 2018

There is a chance his minions don't ring the bell fully next year.

Dems have to get out like our lives depend on it (yeah, I know) and enough good minded people need to follow suit and get the biggest mid term swing in this country's history.

If we wake up the morning after the 2018 fall election and Rs still control DC and most states, its pretty much over.

[murielm99]

7. They might still be in control.

We have to face that and keep working. Sometimes politics can be tough and heartbreaking.

I am pretty sure that a lot of the newly minted activists will give up in disgust if they don't get everything they want in 2018. I have seen this pattern for years. Those of us who have stuck it out through thick and thin will have to stay faithful.

[Cosmocat]

27. I have been at this for a long time now

We have been incrementally been backsliding toward fascism my entire adult life - I had heartburn over it starting in the early 90s.

The pace picked up markedly with the 2010 mid terms and quite honestly hit overdrive from the point at which 45 grabbed ahold of the R nomination, and we are moving at warp speed now.

Rs ALREADY have next to no concern about electoral consequences, if they don't get severely punished in 2018, they will take that as complete validation and we are likely to see things we never imagined.

[uponit7771]

4. Again, people who say they were right without the Russia Cheating I'm takin when they say

... with a grain of salt

[stevenleser]

5. The actual data says completely different.

Trump's approval level in key swing states is 10 points lower than before the election. That is more than enough to be fatal to his chances.

[Iliyah]

14. for one thing, t-rump ain't gonna make it to 2020,

second, the GOP alongwith with the Russian's help rigged the EC, and thirdly, Michael Moore loves his downing of anything Dems. Hell, there is so much negative articles concerning Dems, the election against the Dems, and we still have a year to go for 2018. GOPers, Michael Moore and crew, etc. will not deter me away. RESIST.

[FLPanhandle]

6. I agree

As long as Trump can keep convincing people he is trying to get back US jobs, then he will win.

To quote from Bill Clinton's campaign "It's the economy stupid".

Everything else is just noise.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Moore is starting to remind me of the late Joe Glanville.

[shanny]

16. You want to criticize the guy

who tried to warn us all last time? Maybe you didn't notice but the "market collapse" predicted by Moore actually came to pass.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Joe Glanville made one right call and then he made many bad calls.

Nether you, me, or Michael Moore are Nostradamus.


I'd like to see a scenario where a president with an approval rating hovering in the mid to high thirties is re-elected, even with the vagaries of our Electoral College system.

[shanny]

41. Moore has been right about a bunch of things

including the last election. there's no comparison

[Va Lefty]

9. Not sure there will even be an election in 2020

[BigmanPigman]

10. Many others people have said this as well.

I recall Dan Rather, Robert Reich, Al Gore, and others. There IS a way of actually doing it without having to make a new amendment. I forget exactly how but it CAN be done since I am not assure on that subject. Moore correctly pointed out that since 1988 Dems actually won 6 out of 7 elections. Bush's second reelection was the only one that did not win the popular vote. The numbers ARE in Dems favor.

[Dawson Leery]

11. No President with a sub 45% approval rating has ever won re-election.

Also, Democrats are on guard now.

[Orrex]

13. "Democrats are on guard now"

What does that mean, exactly?

What are they guarding against, and how are they guarding against it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. He's hovering around 35%.

He does something stupid and the economy tanks and he's looking at an approval rating in the high teens/twenties. He has no buffer, no reservoir of good will.

[Lotusflower70]

30. Don't get complacent

Or take anything for granted. Never assume. We have much work to do to get out the vote. We have to be on guard but we have to mobilize and unify.

[Lithos]

12. What Moore is saying

Is we're on task to lose the election in 2020. I did not say for Trump to win, but for us to lose it.

We are not rallying around very effectively. Nor have we - at the core - changed much that caused us to react poorly.

[leftstreet]

24. +1 important distinction n/t

[StevieM]

15. Michael Moore was wrong in 2016. Trump was on his way to a decisive loss when the FBI rigged

the election for the Republicans.

[shanny]

17. I thought it was the Russians. Or the Bernie bros....nevermind.

I'd dispute the "decisive part"--the race was always too close for comfort. Hillary herself asked the rhetorical question, "why am I not 50 pts ahead?"

[MrsCoffee]

20. It was all of the above.

Russia. Bernie Bros. Comey. KGOP election fraud.

The race was never close. And it didn't even matter. The Russians and the GOP already had their bases covered. Have you seen the story about the election official indicted for changing vote tallies to Trump and other conservatives? Do you think that was a solitary incident? The slow drip sucks, but it's dripping.

Certain folks keep on attacking the Democrats like they have the wrong message or run the wrong candidates. It's exactly what the right wing wants them to do.

[shanny]

42. It was close.

not in the national polls, which are largely meaningless, and not in the punditocracy's overall view, but on the ground, in the states, it was close. Michael Moore called it way in advance, didn't he?

Sure, there are structural problems that haven't been addressed for years. I haven't trusted the electoral process since 2000; Obama won because in his case it wasn't close enough to steal. This one was.

[Laffy Kat]

18. We didn't believe him the first time...

I suggest we pay attention.

[HughBeaumont]

19. Well, yes, because Americans are fucking dumb.

Yes. I said it. Americans are fucking DUMB as shit.

SIXTY TWO MILLION PEOPLE thought putting a labor-stiffing, serial sexual-assaulting, Birther-promoting, Putin-colludin' CEO as president would be a great idea.

You've all seen the latest stories that, despite the mass chaos that's been happening in 2017 (and this is BEFORE his inevitable ruining of the economy), his base will stick by him NO MATTER WHAT.

It's the American traditions of never wanting to admit error, never wanting to blame the wealthy or corporations for anything bad and to adhere to revisionist narratives of history that absolve rich white male third-basers of all blame that will get him re-elected. His entire campaign could be summed up in three words - "It's THEIR fault". Trump knew his base at heart possessed all three characteristics I mentioned above. It made his campaign team's job easy.

[Cosmocat]

28. T H I S - people panning what Moore said need to WTFU to THIS

When he came down that elevator, I did not say he WOULD win, but I said that this country is absolutely stupid enough to make him POTUS.

We are even more stupid now ...

[mn9driver]

23. Moore has been right about Trump all along.

I would not bet against him.

There is no democratic candidate for president yet. When one finally emerges, they will be relentlessly attacked while Trump lies. Trump and the GOP are better than anyone at this.

People Do. Not. Care. about whether a politician is lying. They will vote for whoever feeds them what they want. Trump proves it.

We need to find a new way to campaign if we want to change that.

[demmiblue]

25. Michael Moore was spot on about Michigan, but was deemed a concern troll.

Losing Michigan was a total FUBAR (Obama won MI in 2008 by 16 percentage points. 16.).

[delisen]

38. Republicans started winning streak in Michigan in 2010

just two years after Obama big win, the state started flipping Republican

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/11/03/election.great.lakes/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/michigan.html?mcubz=1

Neither Michael Moore nor anyone in the Democratic Party seems to want to take responsibility for the reality of the cost of passing the ACA and taking our eyes off the resulting Republican insurgency. The cost was the Tea Party.

Rick Snyder became governor of Michigan in 2010. Michigan was by then wasawash in a sea of Red and 2010 was a re-apportionment year. Michigan was gerrymandered -making it even more difficult to elect Democrats.

Actually 2008- were the last Michigan was a strong Democratic state. Republican played the long game and Democrats patted ourselves on the back for passing health care.

The Michigan in which Hillary Clinton ran was not the Michigan in which Barack Obama ran. Add to that the Russian interference in 2016 election no one in power-except Hillary Clinton-was willing to tell us about and the 70,000 voter in Detroit who mysteriously decided to vote only down ticket and not register a vote for president.

Detroit never even invested in new voting machines-I don't recall Michael Moore speaking on that issue.

There wasn't some 2016 Fubar. There was careful work over 6-8 years by the Republicans, while Democrats were distracted and not investing in their party.

I am sure there had to have been a few Democrats in positions of power who tried to sound the alarm-but the majority in power did not.

Similar story for the other so called Blue Wall states.

[kentuck]

26. Trump will gladly take 35% approval right now.

That was about the same "disapproval" rate he had when he ran against Hillary.

If we recall, Hillary started her race with about 60% approval rate.

By the time Trump got thru with his name-calling (Crooked Hillary) and his character assassination, Hillary's "disapproval" rate had gone up to almost 60%, even ahead of those of Donald Trump.

He believes he can tear down any opponent and he isn't really worried about low poll numbers at this time.

[Cosmocat]

35. Yep

well analyzed ...

[Awsi Dooger]

39. Hillary's exit poll numbers were 43% favorable 55% unfavorable

Lousy but considerably better than Trump's.

It didn't matter because Trump dominated among the large block who thought the country was headed in the wrong direction and wanted change.

Incumbents own a surreal benefit of a doubt. If we disregard that, it's every bit as stupid as all the mistakes we made in 2016. Jimmy Carter is the only incumbent to lose in more than a century if his party has been in power for only one term.

If the economy were in poor shape, then Trump's 35ish approval rating would be meaningful. But since the economy is showing strength then by sheer big picture logic Trump will eventually receive credit -- even if bogus -- and his poll numbers will rise.

I refuse to set aside long term foundational variables. Everyone is desperate for Trump to lose but he is in considerably better shape toward 2020 than most pundits recognize, with Michael Moore predictably one of the few exceptions.

Trump actually brags about willingness to do virtually anything to win. Now translate that to a campaign after he's already gone through it once, and knows what works best. As kentuck correctly pointed out, Trump doesn't care about his poll numbers at this point. Those digits receive far too much attention around here. It is situational handicapping at its most inept.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Would he still be the favorite if he has an approval rating of 35% on 8/28/20 ?

Trump is sui generis. If so many smart people missed his rise who is to say the same smart people won't miss his fall ?

If there was a popular vote market I would take the Democratic field, without hesitation, against Trump in 2020. I will concede the Electoral College gives me pause.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. The chart indicates Hillary's fall began with the news she had a private e-mail server *

March of 2015.

[democratisphere]

29. I thought lightning couldn't strike twice in the same place.

drumpf re-elected; NEVER!

[Lotusflower70]

31. I hope people listen

And wake up. He was in the never could win the nomination or election categories. He is in the White House. All hands on deck. We need to get out the vote.

[bathroommonkey76]

32. Funny

Moore said a few months ago that his new documentary about Trump would bring his presidency down.

[lunamagica]

33. trump's base flocking to a Michael Moore documentary? I doubt it

[bathroommonkey76]

37. Trump voter's in an Ohio district didn't mind being a part of his last doc

Trumpland.

[Oneironaut]

34. How many people who hate Trump will actually go to vote?

Most will simply be too lazy, or will be sure that he'll lose. Then, they'll whine about how unfair it is that Trump won, or how their vote "wouldn't have mattered anyways."

Those will be the same people we needed during the last election. They never show up, and they won't in 2020.

Don't be swayed by the approval ratings. Trump was "done" in 2016 too. Hillary's election was all but certain. Many of the people who claim to hate Trump now will vote for him again. Mark my words.

We need a strong candidate, and need to treat Trump as if he is an even stronger candidate.

[delisen]

40. We had a strong candidate but we had a weak party.

We had a strong Democratic Party in 2008. We lost that advantage by 2016.

[struggle4progress]

36. Let's concentrate on 2018 for now

[LenaBaby61]

45. Of course thuglicans have a built-in advantage .....

As long as you have enough GOP members of Congress scared of him tweet-shaming them, on his side (Yertle,Ryan etc), enough stupid, racist, ignorant people voting for & still believing in tRumputin, and enough folks like Sarandon, West and people on the left like those two continuing to throw hissy-fits about how a Dem candidate is as bad or worse than tRumputin, continued GOP gerrymandering, voter-crosschecking, voter-purging, voter Id'ing Democrats OFF of voting rolls, horribly old outdated voting machines that are either too old to still be in service or very old or EASY to cyber-hack, ruskie interference (Anyone have any evidence that a tRumputin Dept. of Homeland Security is doing ANYTHING to stop ruskie interference anytime soon?) and thuglicans controlling every aspect of voting in this country IE: collecting the votes to COUNTING them .... I'm extremely dubious as to HOW Democrats can take back the Senate in 2018 or win the GE in 2020 no matter WHO they run and even IF they somehow finally craft a killer, on point message (Wait a minute, that's IF there's a GE in 2020). And before anyone says IF tons of Dems get out to vote, we can overcome thuglican cheating---You don't think they can make enough Democratic votes "go missing" to get the desired result they want which would be to have fewer Dem votes than thuglican votes? .....

Yes, Mueller I believe is going to find (If he already hasn't) a great deal on tReasoous tRumputin and his tReasonous gang, but that will take some time. All has to be done properly--Mueller has to cross every T and dot every I.

By the way, Moore wasn't really a Nostradamus knowing what we know NOW about the 2016 GE. We know about GOP-lead voter purging, voter-crosschecking, voter-Id'ing, and about Ohio/Florida/NC and about how enough Bernie voters having hissy-fits thinking that their candidate was somehow "cheated" out of the Dem nomination got mad and voted for tRump or didn't vote for the Dem candidate at all which helped that fat, tReasonous thing into the White House And back to the ruskies, we STILL don't really know the depths of what they DID to help get tRumputin's mentally-deteriorating, racist, sexist, fat, tReasonous installed ass into the White House, and we don't know what they have up their sleeves for 2018 and beyond--that's IF we have a 2020 GE. Hillary was WINNING Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on election eve, only to BARELY lose those states by 77,000 or so votes. But then again, when you think about all of the shenanigans that went on across all 3 of those "tRumputin MUST win states." ....

Crosscheck Removed 450K Voters in MI, 270 K in AZ and 590 K in NC.

“Before a single vote was cast, the election was fixed by GOP and Trump operatives.

“Starting in 2013 – just as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act – a coterie of Trump operatives, under the direction of Kris Kobach, Kansas Secretary of State, created a system to purge 1.1 million Americans of color from the voter rolls of GOP–controlled states.

The system, called Crosscheck, is detailed in my Rolling Stone report,
“The GOP’s Stealth War on Voters,” 8/24/2016.

Crosscheck in action:

Trump victory margin in Michigan: 13,107 Michigan Crosscheck purge list: 449,922

Trump victory margin in Arizona: 85,257 Arizona Crosscheck purge list: 270,824

Trump victory margin in North Carolina: 177,008 North Carolina Crosscheck purge list: 589,393

“On Tuesday, we saw Crosscheck elect a Republican Senate and as President, Donald Trump. The electoral putsch was aided by nine other methods of attacking the right to vote of Black, Latino and Asian-American voters, methods detailed in my book and film, including “Caging,” “purging,” blocking legitimate registrations, and wrongly shunting millions to “provisional” ballots that will never be counted.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/14/1599330/-Crosscheck-Removed-450K-Voters-in-MI-270-K-in-AZ-and-590-K-in-NC

For as DISASTROUS as tRumputin/thuglicans have been, Democrats are on the ropes going into 2018 as of now. There's NO denying that.