General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums2018 US Senate Election Cycle will like the 1990 US Senate Election Cycle if Democratic wave or
2002 US Senate Election Cycle if Republican wave.
1990-Every single Democratic incumbent US Senator won re-election-especially the one from states that Bush 41 won in 1988.
Heflin-AL,Pryor-AR,Biden-DE,Nunn-GA,Simon-IL,Johnston-LA,Levin-MI,Baucus-MT,Exon-NE,Bradley-NJ,Boren-OK,and Gore-TN.
1 Republican incumbent lost re-election-Boschwitz-MN.
If 2018 is like 1990-Every Democratic incumbent US Senator from a state that Trump won in 2016 will win re-election.
Nelson-FL
Donnelly-IN
Stabenow-MI
McCaskill-MO
Tester-MT
Heitkamp-ND
Brown-OH
Casey-PA
Manchin-WV
Baldwin-WI
2 Republican incumbent US Senators will lose re-election.
Flake-AZ
Heller-NV
Unlike in 1990 when most of the Bush41 state Democratic incumbents won by a landslide margin, The Trump state Democratic US Senators up for re-election in 2018 are going to win by a narrow margin (Donnelly-IN,McCaskill-MO,Tester-MT,Heitkamp-ND,and Brown-OH), high single digit margin (Nelson-FL and Baldwin-WI), low double digit margin (Casey-PA and Manchin-WV),and landslide margin (Stabenow-MI)
2002- 2 Democratic incumbents lost re-election (Cleland-GA and Carnahan-MO) Democrats also lost the MN-Wellstone seat.
1 Republican incumbent lost re-election in the general (Hutchinson-AR) and 1 Republican incumbent lost re-election in the primary (Smith-NH) NH seat remained in the Republican column.
If 2018 is like 2002, Donnelly-IN and McCaskill-MO lose re-election by a narrow to high single digit margin. Heller-NV loses re-election in the general. Flake-AZ loses re-election in the primary but seat remains in the Republican column.

tonyt53
(5,737 posts)We lose MO and IN OR ND, not both. We pick up one in NV.
nkpolitics1212
(8,617 posts)Heitkamp-ND narrowly wins re-election like Johnson-SD did in 2002.
McCaskill-MO and Donnelly-IN lose re-election on the Democratic side.
Heller-NV loses re-election on the Republican side.
Flake-AZ loses in the primary to Ward-R. Ward-R vs Sinema-D is a Tossup. AZ will be the state where the GOP voter intimidation/suppression tactics will likely occur.
NCDem777
(458 posts)If they run on being FOR things. IE FOR universal healthcare, FOR getting us out of foreign entanglements in regions that will never stop fighting over stupid crap, FOR improving infrastructure, they win.
If they spend most of their time running on being AGAINST Trump, while burying their policy papers online, they lose.