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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 11:24 AM Sep 2017

One of our most vulnerable Senate seats appears to be safe





CHARLESTON, W.Va. — How might Senator Joe Manchin shape up against either of the two well-known Republicans lining up to challenge him in 2018?

Evan Jenkins
Pretty well, according to a snapshot of statewide opinion assessed over the past few weeks by the MetroNews West Virginia Poll.

The poll shows Manchin with 50 percent of the vote versus 40 percent for Congressman Evan Jenkins in a theoretical general election matchup.

Eleven percent of respondents in that race were undecided.


http://wvmetronews.com/2017/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-how-would-manchin-fare-versus-jenkins-or-morrisey/


32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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One of our most vulnerable Senate seats appears to be safe (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2017 OP
Unfortunately another seat GaryCnf Sep 2017 #1
I am willing to cut Democrats in deep red states some slack in opposing Trumpism. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2017 #2
I could not agree with you more. GaryCnf Sep 2017 #3
Incumbents in midterms with an opposing President don't typically lose. BzaDem Sep 2017 #4
The party has no planned primary xmas74 Sep 2017 #6
I'll keep this short and blunt GaryCnf Sep 2017 #8
"because that is what she will be getting" BzaDem Sep 2017 #9
Certainly you have a right to that opinion GaryCnf Sep 2017 #10
and what strategy do you propose? BainsBane Sep 2017 #21
The margin was 18 percentage points, not 30. spooky3 Sep 2017 #28
People are angry in Missouri xmas74 Sep 2017 #15
And you known this how? mcar Sep 2017 #13
Are you hoping for a "true progressive" BainsBane Sep 2017 #20
Post removed Post removed Sep 2017 #23
Cause voter disenfranchisement is so "left" BainsBane Sep 2017 #29
Democrats support the Democratic nominee BainsBane Sep 2017 #19
I'm in Missouri. xmas74 Sep 2017 #5
If there is no Democrat that's more electable GaryCnf Sep 2017 #7
I've spent thirty years here, xmas74 Sep 2017 #14
Perhaps they should drug test the pro-marijuana petition workers... Expecting Rain Sep 2017 #17
Lol xmas74 Sep 2017 #22
You spiel sounds completely fucking insane. Blue_true Sep 2017 #11
I live in Missouri. xmas74 Sep 2017 #16
What is your basis for saying it's "in all likelihood probably gone" 15 months early? brooklynite Sep 2017 #18
Wow, a reasonable post GaryCnf Sep 2017 #24
I just looked at predictit. She is ever so slightly less (49/51) than even money to hold her seat. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2017 #25
Exactly. There are 14 months to go, and nobody seems to consider OnDoutside Sep 2017 #32
You seem to forget she was heavily damaged in 2012 Motownman78 Sep 2017 #30
No Senate seat is safe. Retrograde Sep 2017 #12
Assuming you take an expansive view of "our" FBaggins Sep 2017 #26
Manchin Has Never Been in Real Danger DarthDem Sep 2017 #27
He has a primary challenger thanks to 'our revolution'. Demsrule86 Sep 2017 #31
 

GaryCnf

(1,399 posts)
1. Unfortunately another seat
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 12:25 PM
Sep 2017

Is in all likelihood gone, Missouri.

Together we see both sides of the "never primary" theology at work. Joe Manchin, who has been pushing the "Friends of Coal" fantasy to desperate W.Va. workers since before it became a gleam in Trump's eye, appears to be safe. Given that, it now appears foolish to primary him.

Senator McCaskill, on the other hand, left herself no room to distance herself from the deeply unpopular-in-Missouri Secretary Clinton, alienated workers by her attacks on economic justice issues, and then alienated our base by standing up for Prosecutor Bob McCulloch instead of Michael Brown in Ferguson.

Given our abject failure to attract white suburbanites with this strategy, we should at least consider whether there is another Democrat who can inspire our traditional base.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
2. I am willing to cut Democrats in deep red states some slack in opposing Trumpism.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 02:16 PM
Sep 2017

I am willing to cut Democrats in deep red states some slack in opposing Trumpism. It is unfair of me to ask them to cut off their noses to spite their faces.

 

GaryCnf

(1,399 posts)
3. I could not agree with you more.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 03:18 PM
Sep 2017

The ONLY reason I would be looking for a Democratic alternative to McCaskill is that I believe she has made decisions which are going to doom her chances in 2018. If you're trying to win in Missouri as a Democrat, aligning yourself with HC, telling working people to jump in a lake, and telling black voters to kowtow to Bob McCulloch is not the way to do it.

She stands with our party platform twice as often as Manchin but her chances of winning are less than half of his and winning is everything. I can understand wanting to return her loyalty from 2016, but we don't have the luxury of running anyone but the most electable candidate.

BzaDem

(11,142 posts)
4. Incumbents in midterms with an opposing President don't typically lose.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 03:39 PM
Sep 2017

Given how bad the map is for Democratic Senate candidates in 2018, I wouldn't be surprised if some lose. But political gravity in these situations is surprisingly strong, and the enthusiasm gap between the party in power and the opposing party can produce surprising outcomes.

She might lose, but that is far from a given. (And if she loses, I would be shocked if any of the reasons you mentioned are important contributors. 2018 is a long way away, and she will be running against a concrete candidate with positions that are far worse.) If McCaskill doesn't win the primary, winning in a deep red state like MO is likely a bridge too far even after taking into account the political environment.

xmas74

(29,671 posts)
6. The party has no planned primary
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 03:44 PM
Sep 2017

Against McCaskill. The only ones will be the candidates who show up out of the woodwork but have no chance.

The GOP doesn't have much there either.

 

GaryCnf

(1,399 posts)
8. I'll keep this short and blunt
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 04:24 PM
Sep 2017

Tell me how McCaskill wins with low turnout in the cities because that is what she will be getting.

BzaDem

(11,142 posts)
9. "because that is what she will be getting"
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 04:28 PM
Sep 2017

I disagree. While we can't know for sure until election day, all indications are that the Democratic base will be fired up come election day 2018, and Missouri isn't somehow exempt from this. (Certainly not because of the positions you have cited.)

Much more relevant to whether McCaskill wins will be how energized the Republican base is.

 

GaryCnf

(1,399 posts)
10. Certainly you have a right to that opinion
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 05:03 PM
Sep 2017

I can only tell you what I've seen on the ground.

As for the other "issues" you find unpersuasive, they gave us a 30 point loss in 2016. I just don't see a reason to believe McCaskill, who is following an identical "we can win the suburbs" strategy will fare any better.

BainsBane

(53,016 posts)
21. and what strategy do you propose?
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:56 PM
Sep 2017

Let's hear it. Since the Democratic Party is such a disaster, why don't you give us your great insight into winning? And give examples of where your strategy has been successful.

I've always been a person who thinks it's up to Missourians to decide who they should nominate and elect. It never occurred to me that I should be entitled to decide who is allowed to run or not in places I don't live but then I believe in the principle of one person, one vote.

xmas74

(29,671 posts)
15. People are angry in Missouri
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:08 PM
Sep 2017

That lawmakers overruled our vote against Right to Work. It's on the 2018 ballot now to overturn any decision that lawmakers make after the citizens voted an opposite way.

Medical marijuana has a damn good chance of appearing on the ballot too. I posted further down thread about the current conditions in Missouri.

BainsBane

(53,016 posts)
20. Are you hoping for a "true progressive"
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:45 PM
Sep 2017

anti-choice and pro-corporate tax cuts like Tim Ryan? Maybe someone furiously working on voter disenfranchisement like Nokimi Konst. She didn't endorse Hillary, and that's all that matters. So what if wants to ensure no one who isn't white and earns 6 figures can vote?

Response to BainsBane (Reply #20)

BainsBane

(53,016 posts)
29. Cause voter disenfranchisement is so "left"
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 11:43 PM
Sep 2017

You have some pretty screwed up ideas of what constitutes left. Leftism is not defined by allegiance to a particular political tribe.
I mentioned voting rights, reproductive rights and my opposition to corporate tax cuts. THAT is what you call "anti-left."

I get you're greatly attached to your strawman argument, but it bears no relationship to anything I've ever said. In fact, I've argued the opposite to you. Economic self-interest and economic justice are not the same. I've argued that I do not for a second believe economic justice is limited to the upper 20%. I believe economic justice means equality, not more and more for the middle- to upper-middle class, which is precisely what we see advanced under the pretext of progressivism. You ignore that because it doesn't fit the one dimensional worldview. So spare me your persecution complex about "economic justice" voters.

What I referenced was very specific individuals who purport to be progressive or were backed by self-proclaimed progressives. You chose to distract from that by erecting your strawman, arguing something I have NEVER once argued. Mine was a comment on the truly bizarre ways in which power plays have been carried out in the name of progressivism, often resulting in backing conservatives over liberals. We saw Tim Ryan championed as the progressive choice over Pelosi. His anti-choice record wasn't a concern; that only impacts 75% of the population, no one who truly matters. And then when he proves himself the fucking right winger he always was by siding with the GOP on corporate tax cuts, they pretend they never supported him. Only we have the receipts that prove otherwise.

Economic justice does not mean more for those who already have more. It means addresses poverty and inequality, not worsening it. All evidence shows that restricting reproductive rights greatly increases poverty for women and children. It also leads to enormous spikes in mortality rates, as Texas demonstrates. Now, you may dismiss those lives as merely "social," but the fact is the effort to turn the clock back on reproductive rights does economic violence and increases poverty. That information is not new. The question arises then as to why we see men so anxious to undermine rights supported by the vast majority of the American electorate, and why they don't care about the devastating impact on poverty? It sure as hell isn't because of economic "justice." It's about restoring the social order to its mid-twentieth century standing.

What we have also seen VEHEMENT opposition to directed government resources for higher education to those with incomes under $250k a year. We've seen people insist that "free" education" for the upper-middle class is a higher priority that addressing the unconscionable inequality in k-12 that cements generations of poverty, including for those in Ferguson. People don't oppose needs based public education funding because they care about economic justice. They do it to benefit the upper 2-5%.
If McCaskill is courting the six figure incomes, she's in good company.

And not a word about the voter disenfranchisement effort, through replacing primaries with caucuses, championed under the guise of progressivism. Those efforts are targeted directly at communities like Ferguson. Rather than commenting on that, you attack me with your strawman. If you support restricting the franchise to white men of property then say so. If you oppose it, you ought to take your fight to Nomiki Konst and other self-proclaimed progressives working to make the Democratic primary electorate whiter and more affluent. After spending all last year asking why the majority of people of color weren't "smart enough" to vote as one percenters like Konst told them to, they now turn to making sure they can't vote at all by expanding the system with the single lowest voter turnout of any--caucuses. And it is my criticism of that which you called "anti-leftist."

And by the way, St. Louis county went to Clinton in both the GE and the primary. Your claim that McCaskill's endorsement of Clinton would lose her votes is not born out, unless you are more concerned about Republicans. There certainly is no indication that her having supporting someone else in a Democratic primary would have helped her in Ferguson. If McCaskill fucked up in Ferguson, voters have every right to express their displeasure with her, but your attempt to pass that off onto Hillary is unfounded.

If Missourians want to mount a primary challenge to McCaskill or any other representative there, that is entirely their right. As much as you think the party is a concierge service, that's not how it works. The party is made up of individuals, and if a serious candidate arises to challenge McCaskill, then there will be a contested primary. As someone who doesn't vote in that state, I don't imagine it's my place to tell them what to do. I'm not a person who believes what I want should supplant the votes of citizens who live in other districts and states. But that's just a function of my "anti-left" belief in equal voting rights. But I do know that I don't trust for the second the judgment of people who championed Tim Ryan and cover up for voter disenfranchisement efforts.

BainsBane

(53,016 posts)
19. Democrats support the Democratic nominee
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:42 PM
Sep 2017

You think she should have endorsed Trump instead?

And when did she tell working people to "jump in a lake"? Please, provide the quote.

xmas74

(29,671 posts)
5. I'm in Missouri.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 03:41 PM
Sep 2017

She's having record fundraisers, mostly small donations from instate. The party wants no primary at all.

Hawley would be her only competition if he declares for the GOP.He's a first term Attorney General who bragged about working on the Hobby Lobby case. He's also in trouble for not residing in the Jefferson City city limits. He's not that strong while Claire is out and about,doing multiple town halls during every break.

Very few have declared for the GOP. Tony Monetti from my town has and he's a damn joke but he'll play up the retired fighter pilot angle. He's also extremely conservative, more so than most Tea Party members can handle.

 

GaryCnf

(1,399 posts)
7. If there is no Democrat that's more electable
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 04:19 PM
Sep 2017

then obviously there is nothing to be gained from a primary challenge. In red states primaries for lack of purity are mindless and damaging. If that's the situation here, then we just have to do our best.

However, if you think money or town halls for privileged voters will make a difference in Missouri you are whistling past the graveyard. No Democrat can win in Missouri without massive turnout from black voters in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia. I spent almost a year in Ferguson after Michael Brown's murder and I will tell you that people have not forgotten or forgiven what she said and did.

If there is no one better, we better pray that Hawley doesn't run and that she ends up with some clown like Akin, no matter what "the party wants."

xmas74

(29,671 posts)
14. I've spent thirty years here,
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:04 PM
Sep 2017

Both rural and in KC. I've worked on campaigns. I know the climate better than you think.

What you don't know is that Missouri is a state that allows ballot initiatives spearheaded by citizens. This is very important for the 2018 mid term. It will bring a higher than average voter turn out.

A few years ago Right to Work was on the ballot. It was handily defeated. In January the super majority in Jeff City immediately voted it into law and Greitens bragged about signing it. Many citizens were angry.

An initiative, passed around with the We the People organization and backed by Labor and MO Dems was presented at every street fair, every gathering, etc, demanding that whatever was voted on by the citizens could not be overruled by the state. The aim is at Right to Work,though a similar petition us out there about minimum wage. They had until August 21 to obtain the signatures needed. They gained thousands more and the campaign was stopped two weeks early. Now RtW cannot go into effect until after November 2018, depending on how it does at the polls.

Another is currently in circulation for medical marijuana. Last time it circulated it didn't make it by five signatures. Several thousand were thrown out. It's believed that happened because the petition workers weren't properly trained in some areas on how the signatures and information must appear on the form. This has been corrected and most believe it will appear on the 2018 ballot.

There are twelve other measures currently in circulation.

This is good news for Democrats and for McCaskill. RtW and medical marijuana will bring voters who do not make it to midterms. Those voters are shown to be more likely to vote Democratic. And Hawley is heavily tied in with Greitens, who is quickly becoming hated in Missouri. There are allegations of large amounts of dark money that have even some Republicans screaming. More are talking about how he plans to run for president and how they feel he's doing nothing but treating the state as his pit stop.

Claire is in better shape than most think. They only look at one or two things and not at the environment in Missouri or at upcoming initiatives.

 

Expecting Rain

(811 posts)
17. Perhaps they should drug test the pro-marijuana petition workers...
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:21 PM
Sep 2017

Last edited Sun Sep 3, 2017, 09:43 PM - Edit history (1)

in an effort to lower the error rate and prevent thousands of signatures from being invalidated due to sloppy paperwork?

xmas74

(29,671 posts)
22. Lol
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 09:42 PM
Sep 2017

What happened was that the petition had to be filled out exactly as written on your voter ID. If the word Street is written out ,it has to appear the same on the petition with no abbreviations. Abbreviations were thrown out the most with the second being a few signatures in the wrong districts.

They now know to tell someone to fill everything out exactly as their card shows and to be sure they've filled the proper district.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
11. You spiel sounds completely fucking insane.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 06:47 PM
Sep 2017

You seem set to give up the seat of a Democrat, knowing a republican will take it. Your post listed every fucking reason not to vote for the Democrat, not a fucking thing about the republican. I can't believe I read something like what was written.

xmas74

(29,671 posts)
16. I live in Missouri.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:11 PM
Sep 2017

I posted just up thread about conditions. A few ballot initiatives will be on the Nov 2018 ballot and they're the type to get people in the midterm.

brooklynite

(94,361 posts)
18. What is your basis for saying it's "in all likelihood probably gone" 15 months early?
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 08:36 PM
Sep 2017

Too many people panic given the slightest impetus.

 

GaryCnf

(1,399 posts)
24. Wow, a reasonable post
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 10:33 PM
Sep 2017

You're correct, I am massively jumping the gun.

It could well be that Hawley won't run. It could well be that defeating "right to work" will get workers to the polls who were not impressed enough with us to get to the polls in 2016. It may well be that pro-medical marijuana voters will outnumber voters invigorated by the inevitable GOP "Reefer Madness" campaign. We don't have the polling in Missouri that we have in West Virginia. It could come out that McCaskill is as strong as Manchin (and, as I mentioned before, she is MUCH better than him on more issues than you can count).

We should indeed wait and see if these external factors can turn the tide. If that is the case, looking for another candidate is pure stupidity.

I stand corrected.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
25. I just looked at predictit. She is ever so slightly less (49/51) than even money to hold her seat.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 10:43 PM
Sep 2017

Could be worse.

OnDoutside

(19,948 posts)
32. Exactly. There are 14 months to go, and nobody seems to consider
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 02:27 PM
Sep 2017

the damaging effect another 14 months of Trump v GOP will have either.

 

Motownman78

(491 posts)
30. You seem to forget she was heavily damaged in 2012
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 04:50 AM
Sep 2017

from the "airplane issue". And yet Troy "Legitimate Rape" Aiken won the GOP Primary and McCaskill won the GE by 20 points.

Retrograde

(10,130 posts)
12. No Senate seat is safe.
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 07:01 PM
Sep 2017

No House seat is safe, either. I expect to see a significant ramp-up in the bot campaign to smear liberal Senators and Representatives running up to next year's election - the broohaha over Feinstein's misquoted remarks are IMHO an example of the GOP and its agents trying to create enough doubts about a long-serving and vocal Democrat to push her off the ballot next year (California has open primaries: it just takes two people of whatever party finishing ahead of her to get rid of her).

Couple that with increased voter suppression moves - and an Attorney General who doesn't give a damn about it - and it's clear to me that we're going to have to fight for every seat next November.

DarthDem

(5,255 posts)
27. Manchin Has Never Been in Real Danger
Sun Sep 3, 2017, 11:27 PM
Sep 2017

Many of the "vulnerable seats oh noes bad maaaaaaaaap" stuff isn't rooted in reality. And the low-post count poster attacking McCaskill in here doesn't seem to have much information and may be serving some other purpose.

Donnelly is the one that I'm most concerned about, but the Gooper primary there promises to be fun, with two RWNJ U.S. Reps. tearing each other up in the primary.
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