11 possible tracks for Irma. 9 are on the east coast. 9/3/17

[underpants]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/03/hurricane-irma-could-strike-u-s-east-coast-by-next-weekend-or-it-could-curve-out-to-sea/?utm_term=.d864741c4af3

[malaise]

1. I imaginethat the US Open will have some problems

next weekend

[underpants]

2. NFL opening weekend next weekend.

Home games for Miami Washington and Buffalo. New England Thursday night. Other than that everything is more inland.

[malaise]

4. Here's Irma's actual track to date

[OneBlueDotBama]

3. I thought they sent Fabio home...NT

[malaise]

8. They did - hope they ban him for life

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/02/sports/tennis/fabio-fognini-us-open.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-0&action=click&contentCollection=Sports&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

[VMA131Marine]

5. Two of those tracks go right over my house...

I'm in CT so the storm may be extratropical by then but so was Sandy. Thankfully I'm not on the coast.

[George II]

9. I'm in central CT too. We got lucky in Sandy, lost power for less than a day and...

....no significant damage.

My sister has a house one block from the ocean in central New Jersey, about 10 miles from where it hit land. She wasn't allowed to go to the house for a month. It was harrowing, spending a month wondering about the damage. When she got there, the only damage was that a light fixture next to the front door was blown off, nothing else!!

I'm rooting for the orange track to the far right of that picture. The only time I'll be rooting for anything "far right".

[tblue37]

17. Or orange. nt

[George II]

33. Hah! Good catch. I can't even root for Syracuse anymore!

[NutmegYankee]

32. I found Irene to be far worse than Sandy.

Sandy did more damage to roof shingles on my neighbors house, but Irene took down many more trees and knocked power out far longer.

[annabanana]

22. I'm in the crosshairs on those two tracks also..

Right about where they cross on Long Island...Actually, on the coast directly below where they cross..

[Liberty Belle]

6. One of those looks on track to hit Mar Lago, Trump's resort in Florida, or very close.

Hoping the damage won't be as terrible as this looks like it could be, wherever it strikes.

[enid602]

10. tRump

I'm sure tRump will graciously offer housing for those left homeless. At mar-A-Lago. Free of charge.

[Kleveland]

15. Free deportation more likely! nt

[WinkyDink]

7. 9? I count 4, including FL. Five are over the Atlantic.

[underpants]

11. Well I meant NOT IN THE GULF

[WinkyDink]

12. Don't skeer me! I'm right next to NJ!

[aikoaiko]

13. Feeling grateful for the Georgia Bight

Good luck to all.

[alfredo]

14. As it gets closer, the the lines will converge. Image below

Click this
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145723_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Honeycombe8]

16. Thank goodness Houston isn't in the path. But oh, my; New Orleans is close.

But that's a longshot. So is Mar-a-Lago. You never knoe about a hurricane. Unpredictable.

[Grammy23]

18. Eeekk...one path takes it along the Gulf Coastline

after crossing south Florida and restrengthening over the GOM. Even if we don't get a direct hit in the Florida Panhandle, a cat. 3 storm scraping by us can destroy our dunes (that are just getting back in shape), chew up the beach and give the newly paved road out to Ft. Pickens a test. High winds won't do our trees and roofs in town any good, either. My hope is that Irma proves to be a fickle hag and meanders off to the North Atlantic and fizzles into a fish storm.

It takes many, many years for a community to get fully restored after a major hurricane. The satellite trucks leave, the reporters go away and the locals are left to deal with the swarms of insurance adjusters, FEMA, tree cutters, roofers and contractors that descend on the community. Houston and all the towns impacted by Harvey have a long road ahead of them. Please don't forget them. They will need our help for a long, long time.

[Ligyron]

21. That's called "pulling a Katrina".

You know, 'cause that's what she did.

[misanthrope]

25. You're thinking of another storm

Katrina didn't strafe the central Gulf Coast from east to west, she stopped and turned northward from the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Check out the map for yourself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

[Ligyron]

30. No, sorry but Katrina first hit just south of me in Broward County.

"...making landfall at Hallandale Beach and Aventura on August 25." (from the article you posted) where it moved across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf where it strengthened intro a CAT 5 hurricane.

[misanthrope]

34. Sorry, I was confused by Grammy's post to which you replied.

She mentioned a storm crossing the peninsula and entering the Gulf of Mexico -- what you deemed "pulling a Katrina." Then she wrote of a storm "scraping by" the Florida Panhandle, which is what I thought you referenced. I've seen other storms dawdle off the coast in that manner, like 1985's Elena and Juan.

[Ligyron]

35. no problem

now it looks like I have to go put shutters up for Irma, dammit. They have it coming right up the spine of Florida.

[left-of-center2012]

19. Oh no! Where will Trump golf?

[Baclava]

20. Don't trust computer models this far out, they can change quickly

Irma is being pushed to the south of west by a strong area of high pressure to its north.

Irma has made the expected turn to the west-southwest, and the next few days will be very important in determining where the storm goes next.

The hurricane is expected to turn back to the west on Monday. How far south it is when it makes that turn will determine if it strikes the Leeward Islands, and, further down the road, any potential impact on the U.S


http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/hurricane_irma_2017_strengthen.html

[misanthrope]

26. Much like the high pressure ridge kept Irma from recurving

into the central Atlantic where it naturally wanted to go, another system should affect the storm in the coming days. There's a cold front expected to sweep across the southeast in the next couple of days. If it plays out as forecast, the influx of cool, dry air will rob Irma of some strength and could steer her further from the Atlantic Coast.

[Warpy]

23. 12 hours later, there is more consensus

that it will hit between Miami and the southern part of the NC coast. A couple of tracks go right over Mar-a-Loco, dare we hope?

Unfortunately, I have friends up and down the coast, including in Palm Beach, so I fear for all of them. I would love to see the beach eroded out from under that particular edifice, though.

[jberryhill]

29. The latest spaghetti models have an improved look

[garybeck]

24. Haiti. n/t

[Goonch]

27. Infrared imagery of Hurricane Irma from Sunday morning. (NOAA)

[nitpicker]

28. Links to updated (and archived) model tracks

http://flhurricane.com/

Scroll down and click on the SFWMD and Clark Evans model plots.

As of 5 am EST Monday, the models had shifted south and west. Most of them show approaches to Bahamas/FL by Saturday, but this could all change again by Thursday.

[B2G]

31. Well those were nice while they lasted. nt