General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIrma is 150mph and moving West as it approaches the Leewards
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/090514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.pngSpare a thought for the islands in its path
Dustlawyer
(10,497 posts)Find shelter away from large trees!
democratisphere
(17,235 posts)DippyDem
(659 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)on how much power this storm loses vs how much energy it can obtain from the warmer waters....and if and when it hits land on the way and final trajectory if it turns north to hit south florida, skirt the coast and at the mid-atlantic states
Old Vet
(2,001 posts)Amishman
(5,559 posts)The GFS and HMON are the ones giving most of the insane sub 900 pressure predictions. They are not coupled to the ocean, meaning they do not factor in some of the physics which puts a ceiling on hurricane strength. This usually isn't a problem as other conditions are often not perfect enough to push towards that ceiling.
Cat 4 or low cat 5 is probably the high end plausible strength, and is scary enough
Old Vet
(2,001 posts)sustained as at or above the cat-5 level. I will look up those articles, I think they were the European models which have been proven more accurate then others. Either way I hope Iam very wrong, But this storm looks very omious.
bluepen
(620 posts)Can't get higher than "higher."
(Although I knew some people in college who tried.)
Achilleaze
(15,543 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,454 posts)prior to the regular 8:00 am AST update -
WTNT61 KNHC 051147
TCUAT1
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...
NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.
SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Landsea
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?
Nay
(12,051 posts)come stay with us in VA. I'm so afraid they won't be able to evacuate (clogged roads) by the time they figure out it's going to be really bad. We are inland enough in VA that we'd get rain and some wind, but no flooding. However, if Irma is like Isabel, we'll have no power for weeks, downed trees, etc. Sometimes it's hard to know which way to jump.
roamer65
(36,747 posts)Be safe!
I think Irma may go north of you.
madokie
(51,076 posts)Peace
You have hurricanes, we have tornadoes. Not sure which is worse. One you can kinda prepare for the other you never know when or where it might strike.
Thats why we had a cellar installed last summer. About 30 feet from our front door.
This one here is going to be a dangerous one as its already at 175 mph
cwydro
(51,308 posts)They're watching as I am.
These storms can change drastically. If it goes over any of the more mountainous islands, that might weaken it a bit. Scary right now.
B2G
(9,766 posts)Which Key are they on?
womanofthehills
(8,764 posts)Ligyron
(7,639 posts)I'm in So FL and will report on events when it hits until we lose power.
mitch96
(13,924 posts)Storm force winds expected here Friday pm... shit, shit, shit..
I was gonna run north after putting up the shutters but it would prolly follow me..
What's going on in Asheville this weekend... I'm heading there...!!
m
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)malaise
(269,157 posts)My Miami sis and her family now -they are as prepared as they can be and now they wait, watch and listen
alfredo
(60,075 posts)Just what Texas doesn't need.
Demtexan
(1,588 posts)At least cool front.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)My bets are on NOLA getting hit. What will happen in the warm waters of the gulf is anybody's guess.
There is a disturbance south of Texas worth watching.
Demtexan
(1,588 posts)If it will help.
This is my last year in Houston.
This time next I am living on my little farm.
It 100 miles away from my house.
My area did not flood so the value did go up.
I will retire a year early.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)The models are now showing Irma will jog to the north and head through Florida.
Demtexan
(1,588 posts)I will be working on the little farm but I will enjoy it.
I do not want to be close to gulf coast anymore.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)No hurricanes, no Tsunami, no big fault lines, just occasional tornados and flash floods.
Demtexan
(1,588 posts)Nice little farm I bought when I was 20 years old.
With a down payment from my parents.
Nice little house redone and a new little barn.
Chickens, a few head of cattle.
A big garden.
A few friends
I am so ready.
I spent a lot of summers on my grandparents farm.
I know how farm.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)Demtexan
(1,588 posts)It is so peaceful there.
The work is not so hard and there will be four of us.
Two are living there now.
I thought of waiting until 65 but not now.
Between Trump and huricanes it getting to time to get.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)Demtexan
(1,588 posts)We have a good dog.
Cats do not like the dog.
The dog learned the hard way.
He stays away now.
These are feral cats.
The cats learned to leave the chickens alone.
The chickens chased the cats up a tree.
It was funny.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)she was afraid of our Cockatiel
malaise
(269,157 posts)What a mess
alfredo
(60,075 posts)There are areas in the west Gulf and right behind Irma.
They did predict an active hurricane season for the Atlantic.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)The one in the Gulf has intensified since this morning.
greytdemocrat
(3,299 posts)Very impressive storm to say the least.
Good thing is probably won't stay a CAT 5
with eye wall replacements. It'll go up and down.
I would NOT want this thing coming
right at me.
titaniumsalute
(4,742 posts)Not sad that I sold my house two years ago in Palm Beach County but terrified for my friends who live there currently.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)I hope everyone stays safe.
kydo
(2,679 posts)I said we need a generator ASAP! Get one. He said oh we can go tomorrow. Guess what? Orlando is out of generators right now. We are set on the other stuff, well I need water and extra batteries. but I am not worried about that so much. I will get that today, at the latest tomorrow. That stuff will be restocked several times before the storm hits,so.It's the generator that is worry some for our prep.
malaise
(269,157 posts)Don't worry -go and get it
kydo
(2,679 posts)The other supplies are not hard to come by with all the restocking. But generators are different. They only get so many in and they have way more people waiting to buy. You never know when or where they will show.
We opted to just order one. It will come after the storm. But thats ok as you can't use it until after anyway. We had one before, it just died thats why we are generator-less at the moment.
I am ok. The hubby not so much. He is supposed to fly out of Orlando to Bahrain on Friday. He works there, DoD.
Right now all we (everyone in Fl) can do, is watch, wait, prepare for the worst, but pray for the best. Huncker down all in its path and stay safe!
PRETZEL
(3,245 posts)he learned his lesson last year about not keeping his generator running properly.
Be safe
kydo
(2,679 posts)You need to run that tru fuel not that ethonyal watered down gas from the pump. At least make sure thats last fuel you used before you store it. Gas from the pump breaks down and will destroy the gaskets. Same with lawn mowers, pressure washers all those 4 and 2 cycle engines.
B2G
(9,766 posts)30 mile wide eye. Not good, praying for the islands that are about to be rocked.
Last edited Tue Sep 5, 2017, 11:47 AM - Edit history (1)
There will be devastation
greytdemocrat
(3,299 posts)was supposed to be heading to St. Thomas
around the 21st for a biz conference. I texted
him this morning that his hotel may not be there.
His company is making other plans as it sure looks
like St. Thomas is going to take a direct hit.
malaise
(269,157 posts)Montserrat, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the Virgins and Puerto Rico will take a beating