Irma: Gusts of 225 MPH!

[LittleBlue]

Link to tweet

How fast can wind speeds blow before larger structures fall over?

Be safe guys and girls

[LittleBlue]

2. Get out man

Don't take risks like that if you can help it.

[mopinko]

19. yes. go. now.

[MFM008]

35. now is the time

get pets and valuables and get out.
If we had 3 days notice to a monster earthquake....we would be 1000 miles away.
Stay safe!

[Phoenix61]

41. Leave if it heads your way

There's nothing you can do to protect your house if you stay. The power will be out for days which means all the traffic signals will be out too. Half the people who died in Andrew died in traffic accidents after the storm. Stay safe.

[MrScorpio]

56. Leave now. Pack up all your people and shit and leave

[Not Ruth]

3. Cat 5+

[Wounded Bear]

7. Remember that line from Jaws?

We're gonna need another category.

[Not Ruth]

10. Spinal Tap

11

[Wounded Bear]

14. I might be the only person in my generation who hasn't seen that flick...

[Not Ruth]

15. There is an amp, which a band member claims to be more powerful than any other amp

Because the volume dial is calibrated up to 11, not the usual 10.

[A HERETIC I AM]

21. Why don't you just make 10 louder?

.....but this goes to eleven

[pangaia]

34. What gave you abd "not ruth" been drinking?

[Cicada]

33. A roadie said astrophysicist Brian May would want it 12

Dr May, the noted British astrophysicist, in his youth played guitar in a British band named Queen. Some of the band members urged the roadie to try to get Dr. May to tone his guitar down. But the roadie referred to the Spinal Tap guitarist who had an amplifier which went up to 11 and said May would want one which went up to 12. May is well known because he was chancellor of Liverpool John Moores University from 2008 through 2013 and was a science team collaborator on the NASA New Horizons Pluto mission. Some also know him because his band had some fairly popular hit songs such as Bohemian Rhapsody, etc.

[Wounded Bear]

4. So what? We have a 100 mile wide tornado?

[NightWatcher]

5. That moves a few miles an hour.

[Barack_America]

6. With storm surge.

This thing is fucking scary.

I pray to whatever is out there for every creature in its path.

[Not Ruth]

11. I wonder if the animals know to evacuate

If they somehow sense the storm and leave. They are a lot of animals in the Keys, both natural and invasive, that are extremely unique to America.

[B2G]

27. Omg. The Key deer.

That hurts my heart.

[dhill926]

38. ah shit....hadn't thought of that.....

hope they can hunker down somewhere....

[tavernier]

31. I always thought birds left instinctively

before a hurricane, but living in the Keys many years, I've talked to survivors of the 1935 hurricane which was the strongest to hit the U.S., and they said the mangroves were littered with bodies of pelicans and other birds.

[Sedona]

63. 500 miles wide

[Purveyor]

8. Keep an eye on her forward speed. That slows then she could begin the shift north.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Good information

There has been some chatter about that tonight on the weather forums...a slowing speed and earlier shift to the north. The GFS model tonight suddenly placed Irma much further east than conventional wisdom, basically grazing Florida and more of a threat to Jacksonville and the Carolinas.

Quite a bit of skepticism but it is a reliable model. Now everybody is waiting to see if it's indeed a trend and GFS has picked up on something that the other models like the Euro will also catch.

[beachbum bob]

9. irma intensity will shrink as it hits land masses like PR, Cuba....will not be anywhere

Cat 5 when it comes into contact with US

[steve2470]

12. yep I think that will be the case

There's only 90 miles between Key West and Havana, and even then the winds will be hitting both Florida and Cuba.

[beachbum bob]

24. Irma will drop down to Cat 3 when it hits US...that is bad requardless

the destruction in its path will be unprecedented

[steve2470]

26. +1 nt

[Not Ruth]

13. Yes, the weather forecasters are hoping that it slams Cuba, to help the US

Seems like a Sophie's Choice to me.

[defacto7]

18. Harvey was a cat 4 on landfall though slow moving

Cat 4 has sustained winds up to 155mph. I'm relieved.

[VOX]

43. But as we saw with Harvey, the rainfall is what caused most damage...

One can only hope that Irma isn't carrying so many buckets, so to speak.

[LanternWaste]

66. And could yet strengthen again after hitting land and returning

And could yet strengthen again after hitting land and returning to the warn gulf waters again.

[LuckyCharms]

16. Ridiculously powerful. EF5 tornadic winds are 200 mph. n/t

[defacto7]

20. Actually 200mph is EF4.

EF5 on the new scale is any tornado speed above 200 mph since the amount of damage caused is no greater at 250 than at 200; it's maximum damage. The new scale is to measure damage more than wind speed. Tornadoes are thought to exceed 300mph but no one really knows.

As far as hurricanes I'd have to look up the reasoning behind the scale. I'd imagine it's similar since 5 is the top figure.. maximum damage.

[LuckyCharms]

23. Thanks for the clarification. n/t

[Kentonio]

57. If you can spare a moment

Could you just explain the max damage concept a little? How can something be considered max damage?

[defacto7]

68. Here's a couple of links

The first covers tornadoes and has some fair examples and explanation of the damage calculation. The second is hurricane damage and it seems to follow similar damage distinctions although there's some critique about the scale. 5 in either case is "catastrophic damage will occur" then it explains what that is.
There isn't a higher level because the expected damage would be the same under a standard condition. You can't expect to calculate damage evenly in all cases because there are too many random variables in structures, gusts, saturation, foundations, flying debris, etc. The scales try to give some measure of understanding to a random event using common structures, materials, trees and plants. A simple example would be that a concrete shead on a concrete foundation on stone may withstand a strong F5 yet a another one on sand would collapse in an F1. Yet the first example would still be standing even if the windspeed was 300mph.
Predicting damage in a storm is very general but it gives enough info to warn you of the danger. Wind 156 mph.. get out now. Wind 900 mph.. get out now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

[Kentonio]

69. Many thanks for the information.

Very much appreciated!

[AJT]

17. Will it lose power after goes over the islands in its path, becore reaching FL?

I don't mean to dismiss the islands it will affect, I just don't know whether the small land masses affect the power of hurricanes.

[defacto7]

22. Too many factors to figure, but I trust the NWS

They know as much as anyone on the subject and they expect it to drop to a 4, but they will tell you that it's not a perfect science. It's most likely to drop to 4 as it skirts Cuba... lots of reasons why this may be what happens.

[Strelnikov_]

28. ICE - Energy (x t eq. Power) is still there. Ike, Sandy, etc.

Wind will be somewhat reduced, but areal extent will increase. Sort of like conservation of rotational momentum a ballerina uses.

Generally, storm surge threat, due to larger extent of storm (re: Ike) is increased.

[tavernier]

32. Depends on path.

Mountains will slow it, especially through Cuba, but I've seen canes barely skim the northern side of Cuba and gain strength in the warm Florida straits. Usually the smaller islands of the Caribbean don't make much difference in the strength of the really giant storms. And then again, I've seen them break up, dissipate, for little apparent reason. (I've been in the Keys a looong time and spent way too much time trying to reason with hurricane season* over the years)

* nod to Jimmy B

[pangaia]

36. Jimmy. 😍

[greytdemocrat]

25. When it goes thru

The Florida Straits, if conditions are
just right, there is a possible top wind
speed potential of 225 mph. Sustained.

LINK

[William769]

29. One thing is for sure, what ever path Irma takes, Florida is screwed.

I live a mile from the Gulf of Mexico in S.W. Florida. I have given myself till tomorrow at noon to leave or not. (I know, I'm cutting it close).

[steve2470]

30. Actions to Take When a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Threatens

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hurricane/action.shtml

When a hurricane threatens your community, be prepared to evacuate if you live in a storm surge risk area. Allow enough time to pack and inform friends and family if you need to leave your home.

Secure your home: Cover all of your home's windows. Permanent storm shutters offer the best protection for windows. A second option is to board up windows with 5/8 inch exterior grade or marine plywood, built to fit, and ready to install. Buy supplies before the hurricane season rather than waiting for the pre-storm rush.

Stayed tuned in: Check the websites of your local National Weather Service office and local government/emergency management office. Find out what type of emergencies could occur and how you should respond. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or other radio or TV stations for the latest storm news.

Follow instructions issued by local officials. Leave immediately if ordered!

If NOT ordered to evacuate:
Take refuge in a small interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level during the storm. Put as many walls between you and the outside as you can.

Stay away from windows, skylights, and glass doors.

If the eye of the storm passes over your area, there will be a short period of calm, but at the other side of the eye, the wind speed rapidly increases to hurricane force winds coming from the opposite direction.

[MFM008]

39. Remembering Andrew.

My son thinks he was named after Hurricane Andrew
though he was 9 in 1992 when it hit. (doi).

Andrew came in after hitting the Caribbean and Bahamas as a Cat 5.
63,500 houses destroyed, 124,000 damaged. 27 Billion in damage, 65 dead.
It was the last to hit Florida as a Cat 5.
Then re-grouped and hit Louisiana as a CAT 3.
175 thousand homeless..........

Please dont try to out guess a monster Hurricane
If you CAN get in your cars, grab your most valuable.

Get OUT now.

[Hekate]

40. Holy God. I have friends in Jacksonville Beach.

[zentrum]

42. Yowza.

[Awsi Dooger]

44. Several models tonight indicating a more easterly path

With Irma skirting the South Florida coastline instead of splitting the spine of the state.

Unfortunately the very accurate Euro model does not fully agree. It skill keeps Irma further south toward Cuba with a late northward slant toward South Florida.

Apparently the disagreement involves a trough that may or may not be weakening. If it weakens considerably then Irma shifts east. The sharp guys on the weather message boards say we should know which version is more likely within 24 hours.

[steve2470]

45. thank you for the research!

which message board do you use, if I can ask ?

eta: this one ?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33293&st=3940

AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather

Major Hurricane Irma, 9/5 5PM AST CAT 5 - 185 MPH - 926mb - Movement: W @ 15mph

[Awsi Dooger]

50. 2 AM Euro model now agrees with more easterly path

This is the message board I've been sampling:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=7820

It's all about the path, specifically models that project the path. They delete posts that aren't devoted to that topic.

Notice on Page 392 of the thread the conversation shifts suddenly when the Euro model is in agreement with the GFS version from several hours earlier, indicating an earlier move northward. Euro is the more respected of the two. If there hadn't been agreement from Euro, the GFS version would have been discounted.

Obviously this is subject to change again. But the trend is the friend, as some of the regular posters on that forum have announced. A few of them had predicted this easterly shift and expect it to continue in the same direction.

That would be great news for me in Miami but I'm not taking anything for granted.

[steve2470]

51. great board, thanks, and good luck to you in Miami! nt

[Awsi Dooger]

55. Thank you

I'm doing everything I can think of here, then plan to drive to Orlando to stay with my sister during Irma itself.

I hope I can leave with the path projected well offshore into the Atlantic.

[steve2470]

46. some recent info

[steve2470]

47. latest public advisory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/060545.shtml

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060545
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
PASSING OVER BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Guadeloupe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as
well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 17.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Irma is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or
over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass
near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A National Ocean Service automated station on
Barbuda recently reported sustained winds of 119 mph (191 km/h) and
a wind gust of 155 mph (250 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches).
The automated station on Barbuda recently reported a pressure of
927.9 mb (27.40 in).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm
conditions occurring at this time. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican
Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and
St. Croix...2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations
Wednesday through Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[steve2470]

48. Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/060234.shtml

000
WTNT21 KNHC 060234
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* GUADELOUPE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS
WELL AS CUBA... THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 61.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 240SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 61.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[steve2470]

49. interactive map

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?gm_track#contents

Interactive Forecast Graphics and Coastal Watches/Warnings
Hurricane Irma Advisory #028A
2:00 am AST Wed Sep 06, 2017

can't embed here, sorry

headed right for Florida Keys, with entire southern half of state in the cone

[RandySF]

53. Bad news

Looks like Irma will onlt skirt the Hispaniola coast. Good for them of course, but those mountains are good at tearing storms apart.

[secondwind]

52. We are in northern coast of Dominican Republic. Please keep us in your thoughts. Hotel movimy

us to a second floor room tomorrow

[GreenPartyVoter]

54. Good luck! *hugs*

[Kentonio]

60. Stay safe!!

[steve2470]

58. Hurricane Irma Public Advisory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/060853.shtml

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060853
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
MOVING AWAY FROM BARBUDA AND TOWARD ST. MARTIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and a
Hurricane Watch for the Central Bahamas.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Guadeloupe
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as
well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 62.6 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, move near or
over portions of the northern Virgin Islands later today, and pass
near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). St. Martin recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph
(98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb (26.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands and should continue through
today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico later today and tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin
within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning
Thursday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Haiti by early Thursday and in the central Bahamas by
Friday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...4 to
10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern
Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations
Wednesday through Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos and eastern to central
Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[steve2470]

59. Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060854.shtml?

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060854
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Irma continues as a Category 5 hurricane this morning, having
passed over Barbuda a few hours ago. Earlier data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds near 155 kt
and that the central pressure had fallen to 914 mb inside the 25 n
mi wide eye. There has been little change in the satellite
appearance of the hurricane since that time, so the initial
intensity remains 160 kt.

The initial motion is 285/14. Irma is currently being steered by
the subtropical ridge to the north, and a general west-
northwestward motion on the south side of the ridge is expected
during the next 48-72 h. This portion of the forecast track is
little changed and is in best overall agreement with the ECMWF
model. The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to
large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models
related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the
southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Irma is likely to remain in a light shear, warm water, environment
for the next 3 to 4 days. The intensity guidance continues to show
slow weakening during this time, and this part of the intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, with Irma
remaining a strong hurricane during this time. The intensity
forecast is lowered at 120 h due to the forecast landfall, and even
if Irma stays over water it is likely to encounter some vertical
shear at that time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, today. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, as well as the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos, with hurricane watches for portions of Haiti and
the central Bahamas. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm
surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through
Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.9N 62.6W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.6W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.6N 70.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[steve2470]

61. "Barometric pressure at #Barbuda transitioned from typical small double diurnal variation....."

Link to tweet

[steve2470]

62. Before the anemometer broke, winds were gusting to 155 mph.

Link to tweet

[steve2470]

64. if you want the latest on Irma this might help you

https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=news&q=Irma&src=typd


I know many on DU do not like Twitter, but it seems to excel at breaking news.

[ProfessorGAC]

65. Our Friends In The Keys Are Bugging Out

Most of them are Key West but we have some in Tavenier too.

They're heading to FtL right now, but will bug out farther west if it comes that way. If it does, the KW will probably be spared the worst of it. The Tav folks are heading to Orlando with family.

[Old Vet]

67. Gotta say, I went thru a hurricane in clearwater, Florida many years ago.........

I was on the 6th floor of a beachfront hotel. I remember it was a voluntary evacuation and when it hit it was a cat-2. And this new Yorker was scared to death, The water came up to the doors of the hotel and that wind was ass-kicking. I remember watching the windows in the room began to actually bend in, Scary. Do you know what the locals were doing, Packing the local bars drinking hurricanes. I cannot even imagine a cat4, Honestly. All I can say is where in the hell are the people in the key west gonna go? Seeing that Irma will be going up thru the middle of florida. I hope people take this monster serious, Without a doubt its gonna kick some ass. Real bad.