General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWeather Underground: The Southeastern US is fucked.
Models have been very consistent that Irma will take a sharp turn toward the north-northwest during the weekend, working its way around the west end of an upper-level ridge that has been steering Irma all week. The crucial question is exactly where and when Irma will take this right-hand turn, as that will play a huge role in possible impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast. Our top models shifted eastward on Tuesday night in their predictions of where the right-hand turn will occur, and the consensus is now that Irma is most likely to track from south to north either across the Florida Peninsula or just east of it, perhaps remaining near the coastline until moving further inland somewhere from Georgia to North Carolina. Irma is not expected to track sharply away from the Southeast U.S. coastline. A track along or just off the west coast of Florida is still possible. None of our reliable models bring Irma any further west than the Florida Panhandle, so the chance of Irma moving deeply into the central or western Gulf is increasingly remote. A track that curves north and stays just east of Florida is also possible; such a track could still bring Irma into the East Coast at a point further north early next week. Figures 6, 7 and 8 below show the range of possibilities in ensemble model guidance from Tuesday night (ensemble models include a number of parallel forecasts that reflect the uncertainty in a given weather situation).
In short, computer guidance is in strong agreement that Irma will make at least one landfall somewhere from Florida to North Carolina during the weekend or early next week. The official NHC forecast track as of 11 am Wednesday brings Irma from near Miami to near Daytona Beach from Sunday morning to Monday morning. The 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS model predicts that Irma will hit Miami on Sunday afternoon, then make a second landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border on Monday afternoon, with both landfalls occurring with at least Category 4 strength.
The entire Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia are within the five-day cone of uncertainty in the official NHC forecast, and all residents of these areas should pay especially close attention to the progress of Irma. Residents of southeast Florida need to be especially vigilant.
By the time of its turn, Irma is still predicted to be a Category 4 hurricane by NHC, and the GFS and European forecast models imply that Irma could be close to Category 5 strength, especially if its center does not move onshore across northern Cuba. Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate along Irmas path until Saturday, and Irma will be passing over waters that are as warm or slightly warmer than its current environment, so there is nothing that would be expected to cause major weakening of Irma other than potential land interactions, especially with Cuba. As Irma moves northward, increasing wind shear and interactions with land will likely begin to weaken Irma. However, Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane well after its northward turn, even if its center moves over the Florida peninsula and especially if the center remains just off the coast. The official NHC forecast as of 11 am Wednesday has Irma as a Category 3 storm on the east-central Florida coast on Monday morning.
Because of Irmas long life and its extreme strength, Irma will be pushing a tremendous amount of water through the Bahamas in the form of high waves and storm surge. Even if Irmas winds weaken and its Saffir-Simpson category drops, Irma could still be capable of extreme storm surge, depending on its track and the geography of its landfall location(s). Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham noted in a blog post Wednesday: "The region from northeast Florida (St. Augustine) through all of the Georgia coast and southwest South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, whether or not Irma makes a direct landfall in that region."
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-hits-leeward-islands-peak-strength
longship
(40,416 posts)You'll end up being her bitch every single time.
That's it in a nutshell.
Cripes, these GOP folks are fucking stupid, full of shit, and fucking nuts.
riversedge
(70,182 posts)malaise
(268,846 posts)Initech
(100,055 posts)And it's so simple I can't believe I haven't thought of it before. All you have to do is market Mother Nature as the world's biggest terrorist. The marketing practically writes itself.
hunter
(38,309 posts)Leaving it with 185 mph radioactive winds...
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)I'm sure he'll be OK though.
He's a Trump loving Tea Party guy,
and they have God on their side.
RandySF
(58,684 posts)I remember, after Hurricane Hugo hit SC, my mom was watching the 700 Cub (yeah, I know) when Pat Robertson aired an interview with some storm "victims" who showed Pat all the damage at the country club they owned. THAT taught me all I needed to know about where televangelists' hearts lie.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)Be sure to tell him to thank god for that.
Are_grits_groceries
(17,111 posts)Heading straight for me.
People here are already clearing the shelves. That's how you know this shit is serious. They usually wait until the last minute. Bad omen.
My brother told me nothing would be left. He might be right.