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jpak

(41,757 posts)
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 10:11 AM Sep 2017

CNN weather guy just said the European Model predicts "worst case scenario" for Irma

Direct hit on Miami.

The American model has it hitting Palm Beach and continuing north to SC/GA/NC as a CAT 4 or even 5.

Palm Beach cannot evacuate - no gasoline.

Nightmare

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CNN weather guy just said the European Model predicts "worst case scenario" for Irma (Original Post) jpak Sep 2017 OP
Tom Sater? HipChick Sep 2017 #1
The timing of when the storm turns North is crucial! Turn should start Sat. afternoon. PearliePoo2 Sep 2017 #2
The next weather update will be in about an hour! nt. PearliePoo2 Sep 2017 #3
My brother is near WPB, and is currently outside trying to secure as much as he can. His son's OnDoutside Sep 2017 #4
Have a good time with your son. The school won't have power Monday. Lochloosa Sep 2017 #6
Still a few days away. Hopefully the track changes a bit. These models change daily. And it has SweetieD Sep 2017 #5
From experience I prefer the Nat Hurricane Ctr disscusions, and the 5 am had some signs of hope GusBob Sep 2017 #7
Not sure what you're talking about bearsfootball516 Sep 2017 #8
The GFS model I just looked at says the wind speeds will be 120 mph bathroommonkey76 Sep 2017 #12
OMG, That's where Mar-a-fucking-Lago is! JustABozoOnThisBus Sep 2017 #9
Ha, he'll do what he did before, take minor damage, lark Sep 2017 #10
It has survived all of the horrific hurricanes since it was built JCMach1 Sep 2017 #11
Mar-a-lago is in Palm Beach, is it not? ffr Sep 2017 #13
He'll probably threaten to fire the staff to keep them there... haele Sep 2017 #14
Hey you! Keep serving those taco bowls! nt longship Sep 2017 #16
I think a round of golf with Limbaugh would be a great idea! world wide wally Sep 2017 #15
Plus, plus, plus, plus a trillion gazillion!!!!!! hedda_foil Sep 2017 #17
Yep Brother Pat will pray away the hurricane workinclasszero Sep 2017 #27
Right now it is looking very bad for Savannah and Charleston n2doc Sep 2017 #18
Didn't another just form in the Gulf? Lobo27 Sep 2017 #19
Check out this site ... aggiesal Sep 2017 #20
How can they be out of gas? TexasBushwhacker Sep 2017 #21
The same way they're out of bottled water and bread. Mariana Sep 2017 #22
The water shortage is admittedly silly. Tommy_Carcetti Sep 2017 #23
I wonder how many people are wasting valuable time Mariana Sep 2017 #25
Endless lines of cars trying to fill up at the same time and drive out of the area OliverQ Sep 2017 #26
There goes Mar a loogie. MaeScott Sep 2017 #24
Which model has the best record? RandySF Sep 2017 #28
Euro jpak Sep 2017 #29
Never trust their models completely Baclava Sep 2017 #30

HipChick

(25,485 posts)
1. Tom Sater?
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 10:17 AM
Sep 2017

Know him personally from when he used to live in DC....he sued his previous station and won against them...he was dragged though the mud, he's a really good weather person though...
- I wonder if he's ever going to get any sleep

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
2. The timing of when the storm turns North is crucial! Turn should start Sat. afternoon.
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 10:21 AM
Sep 2017

The sooner it turns the better! If Euro model holds, this is as bad as it gets. Horrific catastrophe.
Oh, and fuck you, Rush.

OnDoutside

(19,956 posts)
4. My brother is near WPB, and is currently outside trying to secure as much as he can. His son's
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 10:25 AM
Sep 2017

school have sent everyone home until Monday at least.

SweetieD

(1,660 posts)
5. Still a few days away. Hopefully the track changes a bit. These models change daily. And it has
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 10:29 AM
Sep 2017

been continuing to move east.

GusBob

(7,286 posts)
7. From experience I prefer the Nat Hurricane Ctr disscusions, and the 5 am had some signs of hope
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 10:32 AM
Sep 2017

For one thing the NHC does not have to sell tires and razor blades or make you stay tuned for the latest after this commercial break. They also archive their reports so you can go back and recheck data

Every 3 hours they update the advisory....last night@11pm they reported lightening in the eye wall and something with upper level winds that indicated possible signs of weakening.

? I don't recall lightening being associated with canes before?

Sure enough, the 5 am discussion had more signs of weakening, pressure up, wind speeds down, changes in eyewall, cloud cover over the eye......talk of storm slowing down a break in the steering ridge so a more easterly possible and perhaps some shear down the road....I am tired and trying to recall from memory....still a dangerous storm and no accurate prediction beyond 72 hours

Our local law enforcement officials in Daytona are reporting to expect a Cat 3. Monday am around 3. High tide in these parts in 12 am

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
8. Not sure what you're talking about
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:06 AM
Sep 2017

Every model right now shows it being a 4 when it goes over south florida, a 3 as it continues to the side of the east coast and a 1 as it enters South Carolina.

 

bathroommonkey76

(3,827 posts)
12. The GFS model I just looked at says the wind speeds will be 120 mph
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:23 AM
Sep 2017

before landfall in GA and SC- Making Irma a lower end Category 3 storm.

You can check it out for yourself on this site- European and GFS models can be switched in the bottom left-hand corner:

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.2;-80.8;5&l=wind&t=20170911/15&m=gfs

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,339 posts)
9. OMG, That's where Mar-a-fucking-Lago is!
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:11 AM
Sep 2017

Ah well, at least one property is assured of government assistance to rebuild/redecorate/re-landscape.


lark

(23,097 posts)
10. Ha, he'll do what he did before, take minor damage,
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:16 AM
Sep 2017

but file claims for millions and collect every penny. He's such a cheat and fraud, totally makes me sick.



edited to remove typo

JCMach1

(27,556 posts)
11. It has survived all of the horrific hurricanes since it was built
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:18 AM
Sep 2017

It's far more significant historically than it's current owner will ever be.

ffr

(22,669 posts)
13. Mar-a-lago is in Palm Beach, is it not?
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:36 AM
Sep 2017

Uh-oh. Is 45 going to be there to show solidarity with his climate change hoax buddies?

I think not.

haele

(12,650 posts)
14. He'll probably threaten to fire the staff to keep them there...
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:42 AM
Sep 2017

Hurricane or no hurricane, if they want to keep their job, they show up to work and make sure the buffet is ready to go and the clubhouse is open when it's supposed to be open.
After all, it's just a bit of wind and rain - and it's named after a girl to boot, right? How much harm can it do?

He's that type of boss.

Haele

world wide wally

(21,742 posts)
15. I think a round of golf with Limbaugh would be a great idea!
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 11:45 AM
Sep 2017

You can bring along Pat Robertson as a safety measure.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,185 posts)
21. How can they be out of gas?
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 01:14 PM
Sep 2017

I realize supplies are short, but we have gas in Houston now on every street corner.

Mariana

(14,856 posts)
22. The same way they're out of bottled water and bread.
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 01:25 PM
Sep 2017

They've had a run on it. Most of the time, most people are driving around with partially filled tanks. Right now, everybody wants to have a full tank, and to fill a few cans besides, and there just isn't enough gasoline on hand for that.

Tommy_Carcetti

(43,181 posts)
23. The water shortage is admittedly silly.
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 01:28 PM
Sep 2017

Most areas the tap water is perfectly drinkable. You can fill up as many containers as possible in the run up to the storm and you should be fine.

Mariana

(14,856 posts)
25. I wonder how many people are wasting valuable time
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 01:43 PM
Sep 2017

driving around looking for bottled water to buy, or bags of ice.

 

OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
26. Endless lines of cars trying to fill up at the same time and drive out of the area
Thu Sep 7, 2017, 01:46 PM
Sep 2017

And not enough tanker trucks able to ship more in to keep up with the demand.

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