11pm Irma advisory - track even farther to the west (edit with official track)

[bluepen]

than it was on the 5pm and 8pm tracks.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[DonCoquixote]

1. aw shit from Tampa

If this thing hits tampa at full or even 60 percent strength, the Bay area could be screwed.

[juxtaposed]

2. im fucked

[dixiegrrrrl]

5. My dear fuckee, may I inquire where you are, roughly?

[Not Ruth]

3. Not good for Key West

[ProfessorGAC]

22. All Our Friends There Are Even Happier They Bugged

Of course, all but one of them is still in FL. One got a cheap ticket to StL and came to stay with family

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Euro will update beginning 1:45 AM Eastern

Euro and UKMET have been the two most accurate forecasting Irma. Both of them agreed on a more westerly path earlier today.

The key reference point for a west path is time spent over Cuba. The west models have Irma covering land in Cuba for quite a while, while the models indicating a spine hit or directly at Miami keep Irma north of the Cuban coastline.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Euro 1:45 still prefers the more western path

Front pushes Irma south toward Cuba including landfall before emerging toward southwestern Florida.

The 1:45 AM run was actually slightly more south and west than the previous run. Euro reports only every 12 hours.

No solution is good right now. As a Miamian I was hoping for out to sea on the east but right now I have to hope Euro and UKMET are correct that Irma will err further west than the current consensus.

[Hortensis]

11. "No solution is good right now." For sure. They're all big trouble.

Scary. Just yesterday a couple of DUers were agreeing they'd head for the west coast. Wherever, just as long as a good, strong public shelter is waiting there. Amazingly few people have died so far on those islands because they were in shelters.

Last flights in and out of Florida will be this afternoon as airports close.

Btw, am just hearing that FEMA has not "activated pet-friendly shelters" and hotels do NOT have to take in pets. (Apparently a tale of a federal law requiring that has "gone viral." Not true.) Not, I imagine, that there a room still available anywhere south of...?

[Ghost Dog]

13. Not looking good for Cuba.

There's the tourism infrastructure around Varadero, and if old central la Habana gets a direct hit there will be great cultural loss.

But the society is well-organised in the face of hurricanes, as we know.

[Lucinda]

8. Thank you!

[CottonBear]

9. Yikes! Irma's heading for us in Georgia.

I remember when my grandparents went through Frederick down on the Gulf Coast of Alabama and how it blew on up into Tennessee. Opal came through Northeast Georgia and on into the Chattanooga, TN area. Hugo caused a huge amount of inland damage in South Carolina.

It is amazing how much destructive force these massive storms can unleash hundreds of miles from the ocean.

On Friday, my aunt is flying from Jacksonville, FL to Atlanta to stay with my cousins for a few days.

I'm hoping everyone in Florida can stay safe. I'm sure many residents have never experienced a major hurricane.

[mnhtnbb]

10. I hope your aunt gets out.

Heard of flights being cancelled yesterday right before due to take off because of no crew. I have friends in JAX who are staying even though several of her friends from VA to MA have offered guest rooms.

[CottonBear]

18. My aunt's flight from Jacksonville landed in Atlanta at 11:00pm on Friday!

I just checked the latest reports. Jose is near a Category 5 and is about to hit all of the islands that were already destroyed by Irma.

[Hortensis]

15. Yes, hope your aunt's lines are short and flight undelayed. We're in north Georgia,

not currently in the most likely path once it passed Atlanta (!!), but I'm newly starting to worry just a touch about the big trees we still have. Lost two to a tornado and others to long-term effects of drought and hotter summers.

[CottonBear]

19. She got to Atlanta late last night. She's at my cousin's home now.

I'm east of Atlanta. The path looks like it might angle west toward Alabama after going through Atlanta. We'll probably get a lot of tree damage and flash flooding here in my area.

Schools may be closed on Monday and Tuesday in our county. We'll know by late Sunday afternoon according to an email from the school district.

Stay safe Hortensis. Trees that have been stressed by drought are vulnerable.

[Hortensis]

20. Good. This is all unbelievable. Stay safe.

[CottonBear]

21. Link to The Guardian live blog with current tracking & forecast:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/09/hurricane-irma-florida-evacuate-landfall-cuba-live-latest

Edit: Current track forecast shows Irma headed for the GA coast.

[Hortensis]

23. That's a good site. Thanks. I started wandering links and ran

into a Georgia notice that laws about interstate transport of animals are suspended and a horse shelter has been opened in Perry County. Oh, my! Our Florida place is near all that beautiful horse country down there but hadn't thought about that, just cats and dogs. Our grandkids are in Gwinnett County, no word yet about school closures.

All 5 living former presidents had come together with Harvey as OneAmericaAppeal.org to gather donations, and I just saw them mentioned again on the news. Of course it's expanded to Irma now and not doubt will be eventually to Jose. I particularly like the symbolism of coming together and hope to see a lot more of it.

https://www.oneamericaappeal.org/

[FLPanhandle]

12. Stop coming west!

I'm still just outside of the cone of uncertainty so no more western shifts!

[jpak]

14. Atlanta - be on your toes!

[Hortensis]

16. Current predictions would be 40 mph winds, gusts to 60, up to several inches of rain.

If this happens, the news will be all about downed trees and limbs, and any unfortunates whose tickets were punched under them. Hopefully little, brief flooding.

[Not Ruth]

17. Better now for Key West

They might be cut off, but that is better than a direct hit