Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/082055.shtml
Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml
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Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of
Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the
peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast
of Florida to Suwannee River.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote
River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/
Volusia County Line.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest
is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...3 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected
to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast
of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of
southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central
and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:
Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos...additional 1 to 3
inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica...1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward...4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina...4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
morning across south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Discussion
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Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.
The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.
Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.
2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.
3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant
storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has
increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is
possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation.
Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and
property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from
local officials.
4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected
over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 22.1N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Avila
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