IMPORTANT: DON'T misinterpret the Hurricane Irma track maps...

[brooklynite]

In another thread, someone commented that the track for Irma was shifting west and that Miami was "in the clear". IT'S NOT!

The hurricane maps posted by the NHC illustrate what's known as a "cone of uncertainty", which represents possible locations for the EYE of the Hurricane (the track line shows where the model guesses it will be, with the possibility of it moving east or west). The area surrounding the Eye of the Hurricane will be the worst in terms of wind, but the size and strength of Irma is so large that ANY part of Florida will be at risk for wind impacts. Add to which, Hurricanes spin counter-clockwise, which means the wind will be picking up AND PUSHING water from the Ocean, and Miami et. al. will be the first place to get storm surge and rain impacts.

There is NO safe place from Irma at this point. Don't underestimate it.

[dalton99a]

1. Hence the warning "The cone does not represent the size of the storm"

[Glorfindel]

2. You're absolutely right, brooklynite.

I'm preparing here in the southern Appalachians in north Georgia for the worst. Hurricanes Opal and Ivan both did terrible damage here, and even a severe thunderstorm can knock out the electricity for days.

[AJT]

3. It seems to be losing power over Cuba. Has it been downgraded?

[Baitball Blogger]

5. It will be at least a Cat 4 when it hits Florida.

Miami is "in the clear" of a direct hit. But there will still be surges to worry about. I don't think brooklynite is characterizing my thread fairly.

The west coast is now dealing with the problems of evacuation that the east coast went through. Long traffic lines and less time to prepare to get out.

[William769]

26. You are correct.

Miami is out of the cone (meaning not a direct hit, that doesn't mean it won't be hit by the size, they just won't see the eye).

I am in Bonita.

[Baitball Blogger]

35. It really sucks that we don't have better forecasting tools.

Think of how much better off we would be if we could have provided earlier warnings for the west coast. I have a friend who jumped in her car to leave yesterday and she's still stuck in traffic. She moved to the west coast a month ago!

[cwydro]

31. Miami is going to be on the "dirty side" of the storm.

They are far from out of the woods.

Your thread was misleading, and I'm glad brooklynite posted this one.

[Baitball Blogger]

34. Pinpoint the eye and move out by forty to fifty miles out.

That is the area of most danger. What you refer to as the "dirty side." The further away you are from that nucleus, the further you are from the hurricane wind damage. The Keys will be devastated, but Miami is more than forty miles away and the storm is moving west. As has been reported, Miami will experience the surge, but they won't feel the devastating wind damage that destroyed Homestead with Andrew.

[cwydro]

36. THe hurricane force winds are out 70 miles on each side of the eye.

This storm is 400 miles across, so being 40 miles away is not a big deal.

It's going over warm water, and is already re-strengthening.

[Baitball Blogger]

37. One way or another, we shall see what happens.

[Eyeball_Kid]

33. Irma will INCREASE in strength once it leaves the Cuban coast.

Go to Intellicast, look a "Active Track".

[AJT]

4. Irma has been downgraded to a cat 3

[bigtree]

6. it'll be back in 90 degree water when it leaves Cuba

...I don't think it'll hit as a 3, more likely 4-5, especially if it tracks for a Tampa landfall like the latest reports suggest.

[AJT]

7. I was hoping that wasn't the case. Darn it.

[L. Coyote]

25. Now out over the water again.

Link to tweet

[underpants]

8. Lines for shelter.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2017/09/09/irma-shelter-lines-drew-griffin-sot-nr.cnn

[beachbum bob]

9. miami has avoideed the direct hit, but the lower keys will not

nor the west coast of florida

[Baitball Blogger]

10. I posted the "in the clear" thread. I responded that the comment was in reference

to a direct hit. I made it clear that there would still be danger from surges. That is still a huge improvement over what it was the day before. And, oh look someone saw the same thing I did:


Miami Beach official: "Cautiously optimistic"

Miami Beach City Manager Jimmy L. Morales tells CNN on Saturday that he's "cautiously optimistic" after overnight models showed the storm shifting west of Miami Beach. Morales cautioned still anticipates flooding. Miami Beach continues to expect significant storm surge. The Miami Beach Fire Department is moving its rescue vehicles inland to Miami in anticipation of flooding.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/09/us/hurricane-irma-florida-latest/index.html

[AJT]

12. I heard the same thing on MSNBC.

The problem with 24 channels is they keep people watching by running around with their hair on fire as though they know that the worst that can happen will happen. With the next big storm people may stay put because they don't trust what they are hearing......the news channel that cried wolf.

[Baitball Blogger]

15. Bingo.

That is exactly what is going to happen. Keeping people on high anxiety as if they are going to get a direct hit is going to create long-term problems down the road. We should all be prepared, no doubt there. But don't overstate a situation to the point where there will be people who are going to question the source the next time a hurricane comes by.

[cwydro]

22. It's still a giant storm.

Everyone will get hit.

[AHardRainsAGonnaFall]

28. Sadly agree

I had to turn off the t.v. everything is always over hyped. The weather stations are better. This is a dangerous storm that I hope will not cause too much pain and devastation.
I find myself getting sucked into the hype (on MSNBC) and then feel even more jaded and sceptical to the point I don't believe anything anymore.

[SCVDem]

17. That is not what I heard

on Rachel last night.

Winds at 100 even with a miss. Their meteorologist explained the situation very clearly.

As we all know, the flooding can be as bad as the wind.

[Baitball Blogger]

19. I'm sure Rachel gave you the most updated information available for last night's projection.

But there were updates this morning that we now have. They don't expect severe high winds for Miami, but they do expect surge. That's the update.

i.e. I don't think anyone was feeling optimistic enough to believe that Cuba could slow it down to a Cat 3, but it did. So, it might hit Florida as a Cat 4, but unlikely that it will come in as a Cat 5. We just need to keep watching.

[GoCubsGo]

11. Yep. It's tracking west is actually the worst-case scenario.

The strongest part of the storm, including the highest winds, is the NE par of it. Which means it will impact the east coast of the state hardest, rather than being mostly out in the ocean. Miami isn't going to dodge any bullet. It's about to be blasted with them like it was the target of an Ouzi.

[AJT]

13. MSNBC has Miami getting a storm surge, but not getting the very high winds.

[oberliner]

20. Not even remotely true

This is a much much better scenario for Miami than previous.

[Awsi Dooger]

38. Exactly...the comparative improvement for Miami can't be understated

The projected path 48 hours ago would have been catastrophic for Southeast Florida. More than a generation to recover.

The so-called dirty side is obviously worse but it doesn't begin to counteract the save of 40 or 50 miles further removed from the eye wall.

[George II]

14. Nowhere in Florida is safe, including most of the panhandle. Florida is only 120 miles wide...

...and the storm is currently more than double that in diameter. So even if it moves up the west coast (looking now that it might barely skirt land), it will extend out into the Atlantic on the eastern side.

[oberliner]

21. The vast majority of Florida is "safe"

They will be hit with wind and rain, but it's not unsafe across the majority of the state.

No one is recommending that 20 million people evacuate to Georgia.

[George II]

23. By "safe" I meant that the storm will affect the entire state.

[oberliner]

24. OK - agreed

But most folks in Florida are going to be fine (thankfully).

[Old Vet]

16. Appears to me the irma is 1/4 the size it was, To me looks like cuba has tore it up......

Iam hoping its not as bad as tv has been saying all week. My worry is Irma doesn't kick ass like everyone said and the hurricane behind it does.

[cwydro]

29. It is still 400 miles across with hurricane force winds 70 miles out on each side of the eye.

It will be going over very warm water, and it is likely to strengthen again.

[L. Coyote]

18. Amazing satellite images

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[ananda]

27. Exactly right.

Miami will be on the dirty side of the storm.

It will not be pretty.

[cwydro]

30. Exactly.

Amazed at some in this thread (and other threads) acting like "oh, no big deal now."

[Old Vet]

39. Oh Bullshit, I just said it APPEARED to of gotten a little broke up by hitting cuba....

It was a observation that's all, Actually I hope this thing fizzles out to be honest. Maybe get lucky and this thing might take a hard, hard right.

[ancianita]

32. Right. Winds don't stop a few miles out. Irma's 160+ mph is 300 miles wide. nt

[Scurrilous]

40. I'm in Miami.

And we dodged a bullet. 120 miles from closest projected mainland landfall with hurricane force winds extending only 70 miles from Irma's eye. We'll get tropical force winds and a storm surge of 4 to 6 feet (last update). The west coast though is fucked..

[L. Coyote]

41. 5 PM forecast. But, it is only a forecast, a model, a prediction that keeps shifting west.

This storm could intensify and hit New Orleans, albeit that probability is low.

[Rhiannon12866]

42. It is also impossibly huge.

Just the size seems to dwarf anything we have seen before.

[Pacifist Patriot]

43. I have worn myself out...

Explaining to people that the spaghetti lines and cone models do not represent the breadth of this storm.

My area is no longer showing as significant on these types of maps, but we are still projected to see sustained cat 1 winds and gusts of cat 2 force.