They really screwed up on this Hurricane here in Fl and SW Florida. No rooms in shelters and turning

[kerry-is-my-prez]

people away. They didn't open any shelters until Fri. I'm a social worker so there was no shelter to bring our people to during our work hours. They thought the hurricane was going to hit Miami so hardly anybody was prepared here and it's last minute preparations. Apparently the European model was more accurate but we they looking mainly at all the American models (typical, right - that the Europeans are RIGHT. I'm at my mother's house along with my BF and my cats which is much safer than my place - which is estimated to be under water by the end of the storm. At the last minute, everyone from half of Naples was told to evacuate. If we would have followed the European model, we could have been much more prepared with plywood, sandbags. Most gas stations were out of gas by Thurs or had huge lines. Friday and today there was really nothing except for maybe 2 stations. Luckily, I filled my car up on Weds - only because I thought there would be price gouging. Most people thought they could hunker down in their places until this afternoon. Then they fled at the last minute to go to another place where there were no hotels where they will also get hit.

[greeny2323]

1. Hard

Predicting precise hurricane paths is very difficult. There are too many variables. All we can do is estimate within areas of uncertainty. The European model also drifted west over time.

[B2G]

2. The official forecast comes from the NHC, who

use a blend of the models and acutally weighted the official track in favor of the the Euro model. The GFS was even further east. Yes, the models have shifted west the past few days. But the entire state has been in the cone for almost a week.

This track has been a nightmare for the NHC because Florida is only like 100 miles across or so. Margin for error is nothing and you have to pick your evac battles.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

6. In this state, it's always "it's going to hit Miami or somewhere else," according to the forecast.

It was pretty much "well it's possible it will hit west" but it wasn't until on or two days ago that it was "it IS hitting here and you need to evacuate.

[B2G]

7. This has been an incredibly difficult forecast

Due to the southern angle of approach. An approach from the east is a different proposition. I don't know what else to tell you.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

16. I just want to take all my anger out on Rick Scott. We should not have been out of gas and supplies

so early on. We should not be turning away people from shelters because we didn't open them soon enough and prepare enough of them. They are going to be short of food. People will die because of this. You can only have enough days to prepare. Plywood, sandbags we didn't have. All of Miami was prepared, however.

[B2G]

17. Yesterday is not "early on".

I'm truly sorry for your situation, but your anger is misplaced.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

20. We were preparing on Tues, Weds and Thurs. The hurricane is hitting Sunday.

[B2G]

21. Well you were evidently ahead of your neighbors

You should be in a good position to help them out. Good luck!

[bluepen]

29. "The entire state has been in the cone for almost a week."

Exactly. Great point.

And there are constant reminders not to focus on the line in the center but the cone instead.

[FLPanhandle]

3. The projected track takes into account the European model

Sometimes that model is the best sometimes it isn't. That's why they weight the models and use a composite cone to project the path.

Also, Naples has been in the "cone of uncertainty" as much as Miami.

The NHC spells that all out clearly.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

8. Then our city was not very prepared. No gas, no bottled water, or canned food for days. Miami is

and has been evacuated for days. Where I live in Naples it was not an evacuation area until this afternoon.

[FLPanhandle]

9. Not sure why you or the city is surprised

Floridians know to be prepared for the storm to be anywhere in the cone.

The National Hurricane Center has gone a great job and it's impossible order an evacuation of the entire state. Everyone watches where it's going and gets prepared ahead of time. That's what you do when in the cone.

Sorry.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. The whole state was a cone. It takes 8-10 hours to get through the state. Would be at least 12 hrs

during an evacuation. We cannot go on the interstate I-75 but on side roads. People always come over here and the west part of the state from Miami trying to flee and they realized they should have stayed there now.

[FLPanhandle]

24. The whole state was a cone

Anyone evacuating from one part of the cone to another was, frankly, stupid or didn't understand the basics of the NHC cone.

Your rant about the European model, bad forecasting, no one preparing, is wrong. The only screw ups have been people running around the cone.

[drray23]

4. the main difference between us and european models as I understand it

is that the european model is more fine gridded and they calculate it for longer. They only update it twice a day instead of 4 times a day so they can make more in depth calculations. By the way, these kind of calculations take super computers and are state of the art. As computers got faster and modeling got better, that cone of uncertainty got reduced by about a factor of three. We are much better at predicting the path but still not perfect. The intensity of the storm is also hard to predict.

[democratisphere]

5. I think they have done a great job with ever changing conditions and

citizens that don't take the situation seriously.

[msongs]

10. maybe if one lives in florida one always has a plan in hurricane season nt

[malaise]

11. In Florida or anywhere that faces Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM

Last edited Sun Sep 10, 2017, 07:09 AM - Edit history (1)

hurricanes six months of every year and particularly in peak season. It's like not having snow tires in Winter.

[FLPanhandle]

13. Yep.

No excuse for being surprised and I suspect the OP knows that.

They are just lashing out to be angry at someone other than themselves.

[malaise]

25. It does get boring

[DonCoquixote]

23. we do, but

the nature of a hurricane is that it turns the best laid plans to mush.

[raven mad]

28. We always did, even when forecasts were basically - well, basic.

Donna is the one I remember most.

[Thunderbeast]

12. Give me a break!

We have known for over a week that an historic storm was headed for SOMEWHERE in South Florida. Weather is extremely complex to forecast. There are, and always will be variables in the models that CAN NOT be accounted for. If the author made evacuation choices thinking that the weather forecasters could be certain of storm tracks within a 150 mile corridor, they own their own consequences. Nobody owes you a bed and a meal in this situation. It is all a best effort - best guess situation.

If you wanted a high probability of safety, it might have been a good idea to evacuate on Thursday. You could have driven to Chicago in that time. The author put themselves in a crappy situation. Blaming emergency responders for not compensating for poor choices is a crock. I wish the author luck, but don't start shading others for your poor choices

I have close relatives hunkered down in Naples so their dog won't feel stress. Their decision, but a piss poor one. I hope it is also not a tragedy for them.

[Sunlei]

15. "so their dog wouldn't feel stress" lucky dog but in Houston floods it was the dogs that had "fun"

my friends home was ok but they were "on an island" floods all around. Their sheltie keep jumping in the boat wanting to take boat rides!

another friends 80 year old mom & little jack russel were in waist deep water that rose in her home- in 10 minutes. before 5 minutes past someone tapping on her doors.

two teen neighbors with a surf board to the rescue! The jack russel never stopped barking & wagging all excited to ride the surfboard to safe ground. Both the owner & dog were in warm shelter within the hour.

I hope your relatives in Naples are ok, they may get a lot of rain but Florida is used to lots of heavy rain.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

18. I'm ok. I'm in a house in a safe area and will not run out of food, etc. I am just watching people

being turned away from shelters. I have 2 SUVs and a pickup truck full of gas. Not everyone is so lucky - mainly the poor and mentally disabled. Most of the affluent were able get off work and fly out.

[malaise]

26. I understand the issues for folks without resources but

no one in Florida can say they did not know Irma was coming.

[DinahMoeHum]

27. +1000s

n/t

[Sunlei]

14. "during our work hours" when there is emergency & you're responsible for people, yr. work hours-24/7

[marybourg]

19. I don't think there can be any excuse for there not being enough

shelter space for everyone who needs it. I'm watching NBC2 from Ft Meyers, and they seem to be saying there's only shelter accepting and there's no space for beds in it.

[beachbum bob]

30. long time florida residents understand what is needed to prepare and you don't

wait until a day or 2 before a hurricane hits....The fire drill gets repeated in ONE WEEK when Hurricane Jose hits east coast of florida somewhere. Upside, those people prepped for Irma, bad thing no supplies to restock....so folks on florida east coast will need to conserve their supplies