Monarch Butterfly Good News

[csziggy]

St. Marks and St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuges

A little monarch news and predictions: Monarch Population Status - by Chip Taylor
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To make projections for each fall migration and overwintering population, I start with the numbers of monarchs measured at the overwintering sites in Mexico. Next, I focus on overwintering mortality, followed by the spring conditions that prevail as monarchs move northward from the overwintering sites to the milkweed areas in south and central Texas, and then the conditions in the South Region (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas) during the growth of the first generation in March and April. That is followed by attention to the conditions during the period from 1 May-9 June that allow (or don’t allow) first-generation monarchs to reach the northern breeding grounds. Summer temperatures along with the seasonal distribution and amounts of rainfall are also in focus when estimating the fall and winter numbers.

The above provides the context for a number of hypotheses or projections concerning the coming migration and the opportunities to tag monarchs this fall. First, this should be a GREAT tagging season. It will certainly be as good as the 2015 season and probably better. The overwintering numbers should match or exceed the 4.01-hectare population measured in the winter of 2015-2016 (see Monarch Population Status from February). Further, several fall monitoring sites (Peninsula Point, MI; Long Point, ONT and Cape May, NJ) are all likely to record much higher numbers of monarchs than in recent years. Specifically, the migration through Cape May has the potential to be stronger than any migration since 2012. While the numbers at Cape May will probably not be as high as 2012, they are likely to rank within the top ten seasonal averages in the 25 years of that program. Fall monarchs should be abundant in the Upper Midwest from the eastern Dakotas east to Wisconsin and Illinois with good numbers present from Michigan through Ohio as well. Production of monarchs should also be higher than it has been for many years for all of the Northeast from New York and Pennsylvania through Maine. The Mid-Atlantic region hasn’t been heard from in recent months, but the flow south and southwest through that region by monarchs originating further north should present some good opportunities for tagging in that region as well. Taggers located south of the northern breeding areas, particularly those located in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, should also have a greater opportunity to tag monarchs than in recent years.

In sum, this looks to be a good year for monarchs – with a stronger migration in most regions and a good prospect that the overwintering population will increase from the 2.91 hectares of last year to 4 hectares or better this coming winter.

For a more detailed discussion of the current monarch population status please visit http://monarchwatch.org/blog/

To determine the timing and anticipated peak of the monarch migration in your area please see our “Peak Migration Dates” page at http://monarchwatch.org/tagmig/peak.html

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[Arkansas Granny]

1. I hope that's right. I have only seen one Monarch all summer long.

I work on a former army base and our office is surrounded by fields and grassy areas that haven't been mowed for years. Lots of wildflowers. I see other butterflies and lots of hummingbirds, but no Monarchs.

[aka-chmeee]

2. Same here in northeast KS

Have seen only one and property adjoining mine has many milkweeds.

[csziggy]

6. We are north of a staging area form their flight south

We're up near the Georgia border but the monarchs from here go to St. Marks to fly across the Gulf. We had lots before Irma and I wondered if they would use the south blowing winds to get a boost across the water but we still have justas many if not more this week.

With the stuff that went on before our vacation, how exhausted that bad vacation left me, and the storm, I have not been able to pull weeds. That's OK since the most annoying ones that we call Spanish needle are some of the favorite flowers for the butterflies and bees. So they have been gorging on the nectar.

I'll wait another week or two to see how the weather goes - it's been too hot and humid to get out and do much even at dawn. But if the butterflies and bees get good out of those nasty weeds, I can be happy for them.

Maybe you need some milkweed - that is what they lay their eggs on and what the caterpillars like.

[Arkansas Granny]

11. I have some wildflower seed that I'm going to scatter around just before a rain.

I can't cultivate the soil out there, but maybe something will get a start. Thats how mother nature plants them.

I have a mixture of annual and perennial flowers that attract bees and butterflies.

[Deb]

3. wonderful news!

I've been planting milkweed seed in hedgerows for close to 10 yrs in our area. My grandkids are participating too and now they can identify the butterfly in most stages of development. I've noticed an increase in Tiger butterflies here as well. Thanks for posting

[TuxedoKat]

4. I saw one this summer

Was a nice surprise as I never pull out the Milkweed in my yard and hadn't seen any Monarchs for 5-6 years.

[LeftInTX]

5. I have some that overwinter in my yard

I don't have milkweed.

Whenever there is a nasty freeze, I will find some frozen in my yard.

ETA: My latitude is 29.5
We had temps of 19 degrees in January and that is when I found them.

The last time I found frozen Monarchs was in Dec 2009. In the 2009-10 winter, the cold even killed them at their winter grounds in Mexico.

[James48]

7. False optimism

That whole article is filled with "should be a good year" optimism.

Fact: I live in Michigan, have 10 acres of wild grasses and milkweeds, and I haven't seen a single Monarch this year. I am greatly concerned it is too late.

I wish I was this optimistic. My experience this year has not been so.

[bluestarone]

8. North Dakota here and

we've seen many many Monarchs it's better than ever before here best year in last 15

[modrepub]

9. SE PA

Have seen many on my walks, just saw one this morning. Usually see at least one per day. There were some days in July that I saw half a dozen during a three mile walk. Heading south now, warm weather here probably opening a window for any late stragglers. With a little help and hope they will continue well after I check out.

[Raissa]

10. Tampa Bay, FL

And I've seen a lot - definitely more than usual though I often see them in bursts. This year I've certainly seen more in my yard (2 acres, butterfly friendly plants), but there has been an uptick in swallowtails, zebras, and the local false monarchs as well. Good blossoms and lots of butterflies.

[dae]

12. I have seen a number of Monarchs over the summer with the

last one on my front porch this past Friday.