I just read that Maria could be 140mph by the time it reaches

[malaise]

Puerto Rico.
They say Maria is Irma with an extra a - Irmaa=Maria.


Expect strengthening overnight

[roamer65]

1. Gonna be a long hurricane season, malaise.

We have the rest of Sept, Oct and November to go.

[malaise]

2. Yep

We just have to prepare for the worst and pay attention

[Baitball Blogger]

3. I'm in denial.

[snort]

30. They'll warn you about the crocs,

but its the hippos that will get you.

[spanone]

4. K&R...

[appleannie1943]

5. Been keeping an eye on it.

The last thing the Virgin Islands need.

[awesomerwb1]

6. What's up with the spanish names??

This is not helping the immigration cause.

[Revanchist]

11. I think Italian when I hear Maria

[crazycatlady]

31. I think at one point they rotated nationalities

Looking at the list of names (and some retired names) they seem to come from various parts of the world. For the Atlantic storms, no Asian names though.

There's a 6 year cycle for names. (Please correct me if these names are in the wrong nationality)

Spanish names--- Ana, Jose, Maria, Alberto, Ernesto, Nestor, Oscar, Cristobal
French names-- Gaston, Henri, Virginie, Hermine, Odette,
Eastern European/Russian names-- Ivan (retired), Katia,


On that note-- I have a friend who goes by her middle name. Her first, middle, and last name are all on the list of hurricane names.

My name was a 1975 hurricane (before I was born). It must have been retired because names are cycled in and out over 6 years unless retired (ie Sandy, Katrina). Or the naming system changed after then.

[ProfessorGAC]

48. Where Does "Harvey" Fit In There?

Just curious as to how that name got in there if there was some rotational thing in play. What you're saying sounds like something NOAA would do, but Harvey seems out of place, then.

[crazycatlady]

49. There's a lot of 'American' names on the list too

I'm not sure where Harvey fits in. I've only known (of) one Harvey in my life and he's currently in his 70s.

Examples-- Danny, Grace, Kate, Peter, Sam, Alex, Lisa, Matthew (now retired), Chris, Sara, William

Interestingly enough there's some unisex names on there (Alex, Sam, Leslie). Alex and Sam are considered male names while Leslie is considered female.


The names are cycled through a 6 year period. They're replaced only if the name is retired. Irma will surely be retired, and I hope they replace it with Ivanka.

Full list of names
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming

[ProfessorGAC]

51. Funny Line!

Replace it with Ivanka! Nicely done!

[suffragette]

90. You mean Harvey, Lee and Otis?

Guess it depends on your focus.

[babylonsister]

7. Go AWAY, Maria!!!

I'm hurricane weary.

[malaise]

8. Join the line

I'm drained and we haven't been hit yet.

[cwydro]

50. Knock on wood. Please.

I know Jamaica is a very prepared island, but these monsters the Atlantic is churning out this year are scary as hell.

God, I so feel for the Caribbean. The hurricanes I experienced were awful and caused immense damage, but what happened to Barbuda and those islands in the direct path is beyond belief.

[malaise]

56. No one is really prepared for a Cat4 or Cat5

unless you pack your documents and get out of the way

[cwydro]

62. Yeah, you're right about that.

My heart is breaking for the Caribbean. I keep hoping it veers somehow.

[bdamomma]

53. me too.

Let them stay away from Bermuda. Now if no one believes in climate change it is here to stay unless those deniers out there wake up. scary stuff. Mother Nature is pissed off at us.

[Moostache]

59. Just math in reality...

What is happening is EXACTLY what has been predicted for DECADES, the scientists should have used the more dire predictions that were in line with the evidence instead of the down-played versions that made it seem less perilous ... humans are denial machines and scientists allowed them space to rationalize away the consequences for far too long.

Carbon Dioxide IS a "greenhouse gas".
That is fact. (So too is that stuff seeping out of the tundra...methane, which is why we are all already fucked beyond repair...)

Greenhouse gases are what allows the temperature of the Earth to be in the range it is instead of being an ice ball.
Another fact. (The same effect is why temperatures on Venus are hot enough to melt lead...)

When the concentration of greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide and Methane increase, the amount of incident radiation from the sun that is retained (instead of re-radiating into space) increases, this in turn leads to higher aggregate global temperatures and a shifting, unpredictable climate replaces the stable one human civilization was weaned on.
Still more facts.

As coastal cities are starting to see, the sea level increase is REAL. The churning atmosphere in the tropics is REAL. The effects of this on storm surges and strength and frequency is REAL. There is nothing fake about any of this. Mathematically, humanity is FUCKED on a global scale. Literally BILLIONS of people, fellow human beings, are going to die in horrific ways - famine, pestilence, fighting, nuclear exchanges - before finally we disappear from the stage forever.

Eventually, life will persist. It won't survive in its current form. but it never does. We had a chance to change that...to be the first species that evolved enough to not only see its own demise, but to prevent it. We failed. Perhaps in a few billion years, the insect world will evolve a more suitable species to advance life on Earth into something more than a local affliction of the third orbiting body of a non-descript star in the corner of the Milky Way...or perhaps they too will fall victim to greed and lust for power just as the power brokers of the failed species Homo Sapiens have...

[kydo]

9. Ugh! And I just got my power back fri

Let's hope not. I still haven't finishing cleaning up from Irma. Think I will leave the plywood up for now. Took the metal shutters off, needed the breeze, and those are easy to deal with.

This is first time I have been on-line since last Sunday.

[malaise]

10. Welcome back

I doubt it will hit the same places on the mainland - if it gets there

[kydo]

15. I kept saying that back in 2004

But damn, if we were the bull's eye 3 times that year. Charlie, Fran and Jean. Power was out for 8 days, 5 days and 3 days. Of course for Matthew, we were that few in the Orlando area that lost power for almost 2 days. Duke Energy sucks. Most of my sub division and the surrounding area got power back on Tuesday. We had to wait until 7pm Friday.

Its the grid. But no one will fix it. So I will. Me and the hubby are going to go solar. See if we can't get off the grid. Duke is unreliable.

[malaise]

16. Who could forget 2004?

Off the grid is the way to go.

[kydo]

19. BTW - Thanks for the welcome back

It is good be back.

[malaise]

24. The power loss in Florida was staggering

It's great seeing our Florida DUers recovering. Bad hurricanes make us realixe just how much we take for granted.

[kydo]

29. You know whats worse

In an odd way when everyone is without power its really not that bad. Everyone is more nice to each other. Its when the power starts to come back when it sucks. Mostly it sucks when the people across the street get power back days before you. That person retreats back to AC and normalcy while the one without tends to develop resentments and feels more miserable.

The things you miss are the things you never thought you would miss. Well outside the obvious like AC and TV and the internet. I hate cleaning, like vacuuming and laundry. But damn if that wasn't the first things I did when power came back. I wasn't looking at tv or logging on the DU, okay yeah I did just sit and enjoyed the AC but then I did laundry while I vacuumed. Crazy!

[malaise]

32. Yep getting clean matters after days without power

I understand that resentment - saw it happen after Gilbert.

[Pacifist Patriot]

46. Exactly! That was our story.

We had these weird little pockets of 3-4 houses scattered throughout our neighborhood that had power as early as Tuesday. Most of us didn't get ours back until late Saturday night. You start to see carriage lights as a "ha ha, I have mine and you don't." (even though you know darned well that isn't what the neighbors with power are actually doing)

As soon as my house was cool enough, laundry and cleaning were first on my list too! I'm worn out from a marathon day of cleaning and restocking the fridge. Feel like I could sleep for a week....under air of course!

[greytdemocrat]

43. 2004, I'll never forget it!

Yikes

[dixiegrrrrl]

45. We live in rural SW Ala. Power was off for 3 WEEKS after Ivan in 204.

So many trees were down across the roads, plus the usual downed lines and poles.
Can you imagine going without vital prescription meds for 3 weeks?
no power, no cash registers work, not gas pumps, etc.

Yet another reason I would, personally, leave ahead of a big one aiming for this area.
The week or so after all the damage is as life threatening to some of us as the storm is. Getting much too old for the "adventure" of it all.

Maria needs to go to New York....

[barbtries]

13. welcome back!

how's your family and your home?

[kydo]

25. Charlie for us was way worse.

And maybe because of Charlie we didn't take as much damage. He knocked down everything. Which is good. I did not see any where near the same type of tree and roof damage as with Charlie. It smelled like Christmas when we did what they say don't do, we went out during the eye. And to this day I remember that smell smacking me in the face when we opened the door. Not with Irma. She lasted longer. We didn't get the eye, but we had hurricane winds and lots of tornado watches. But Irma was big and effected way more people then Charlie. Both were scary but for different reasons. Charlie was terror, felt like a train kept running over the house, but was over fast. Irma seemed to go on for ever, the winds were nuts but not the train thing.

Personally house and family fared very well, much better then Charlie. We lost nothing with Irma. I thought for sure the fence we installed after Charlie and the new gutters and its splash shield, installed less then a month ago were toast. Both made it.

We were lucky.

Thanks for the welcome back. It's nice to be working on getting back to normal.

[barbtries]

12. my mother's name is Marie.

when i told my sister Maria was coming she went right there and said, oh no, she's a pistol.

is this written in stone? any chance she'll lose ferocity, stay in the ocean, go elsewhere?

by the way Malaise, thank you! you are a great resource for this information

[malaise]

14. Nothing about hurricanes is written in stone except that they will come

Looks likely - conditions re ripe for strengthening from tonight.

You're welcome sis

[montana_hazeleyes]

18. Absolutely malaise.

There are certain things that can be tracked and measured, but these hurricanes do and go where they want!

[malaise]

26. We have a general idea but there are too many variables

Ivan was supposed to go right though Jamaica and just moved and passed real close. All now we wonder how that missed us.

[mcar]

17. I cannot with this season

No mas. I'm done. The islands can't take anymore.

Florida will collapse if another big one hits. This is madness.

[Ligyron]

20. I have no intention of taking my shutters off until December.

I predict hurricane season will last longer and longer with the ocean retaining heat like it has been.

[mcar]

22. I think you are right

[malaise]

27. Just imagine what will happen to the islands

if they take another hit.
This is madness

[mcar]

40. I can't imagine,malaise

People have been through enough. No homes, no water,no food, no way out.

SO and our neighbor talked last week while cleaning up after Irma. About how close FL is to being a 3rd world area. If another hits here, we don't have the money to leave.

Enough!

[malaise]

68. About 45 minutes to landfall in Dominica

They still have power. Heavy Heavy rain in Barbados (Bim), St Lucia and Dominica. Lightning hit the power grid and knocked out power island wide in Barbados this afternoon.

[B2G]

77. More like 2 hours

She's slowed down a bit. Around 10 EST.

[malaise]

79. Not according to my friends in Dominica n/t

[B2G]

81. Eye is still about 30 miles offshore

I'm sure the effects are tremendous right now though.

[Honeycombe8]

21. OMG. Huge. nt

[countryjake]

23. Forecast cone looks like it may be making a beeline for Puerto Rico.

And I surely hope it's true that not a soul is left on the island of Barbuda; how any of those tiny low-lying isles will be able to take the destruction of another major hit, I have no idea.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/maria-2017





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al15/al152017.public_a.006.shtml?

[malaise]

28. Well all things considered

Cat 2 is better than Cat3 or Cat 4

[countryjake]

41. Most weather sites have all now upped her to Cat3 by Wed.

so if I were a betting person, I certainly wouldn't rule out the odds of winds reaching higher than 129 mph by the time Maria nears the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.



You take care down there, malaise, just in case that cone soon shows a wobble shift further to the South.

[bluepen]

44. Sometimes. Categories don't take storm surge into consideration

and that's often the worst aspect of a storm. There are Cat 2s with bigger storm surge than Cat 4s. And of course, the landfall timing matters with regard to where the tide is in its cycle. Saffir–Simpson is all wind.

This is why there's talk of changing the SSHWS. And as the sayings go: "run from water, hide from wind" and "evacuate for water, not wind."

[Pacifist Patriot]

47. I wish forecasters would switch to either of the two sliding scale models...

that take into account size, speed of forward motion, rain fall, etc. The Cat scale doesn't paint a full enough picture.

Some of the worst damage my neighbors sustained wasn't during Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, Matthew, or Irma. It was flooding from Tropical Storm Faye. Oh, just a tropical storm they say? It sat over our community for three and a half straight days!

Completely agree with you.

[bluepen]

58. Yep. We had a tropical storm here that did more

damage than a Cat 1 (that was on the upper end of the scale) about a month later.

And great point about the size of the storm. Here in Charleston, we took a good punch from one of Irma's strong feeder bands, and we were nowhere close to the center of the storm and the immediate effects surrounding it. Forecasters underestimated what we got here. (Not blaming them. That was a difficult storm to get a handle on in terms of localized impacts.)

[malaise]

60. True - Maria now Cat3 - strengthening fast

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the U. S. Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the British Virgin Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning
for Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

[B2G]

61. 120 MPH is a Cat 3. nt

[tclambert]

33. Why don't you nag a ram, agraman?

(Those are anagrams of anagram.)

[Not Ruth]

34. Nature is incredible

[Flaleftist]

35. ****

[MuseRider]

36. OMG no!

Still freaked out by what happened in Tortola. I know other islands were hit harder, maybe in part because they are flatter than Tortola but still, I wish so much I could go there and help with clean up.

Best to all of you in the path.

Malaise, how are things your way? You had to have had some wind and wave action right? Be safe and well.

[malaise]

37. I have two good friends in Tortola

One returned to Jamaica yesterday. The other left Tortola for Trinidad the day I told him what was coming.
He's in construction and will head back to help in the recovery

[MLAA]

38. Irma with an extra A...good one! Crossing my fingers for those in her path.

[yuiyoshida]

39. And Republicans don't believe in Climate change...

whatta gonna do?

[Leith]

42. Damn. My Heart Goes Out to Everyone

Last edited Sun Sep 17, 2017, 11:46 PM - Edit history (1)

who will feel the effects of Maria. I've been through a hurricane, but I can't imagine this.

Edited to add: It's sure to get worse. It looks like Maria is canabalizing Lee. Check it out.

[bedazzled]

52. I wish they would stop using people's names for hurricanes

numbers would be fine I think. imagine being named katrina...

[bdamomma]

54. I read here last week

that the stupid man (trump) did not realize there was a Cat 5 category. What a stupid ass man. Geez only concerned about himself.

[malaise]

55. Looks like he does not live in a bubble but a concrete basement dwelling

What an ignorant ass.

[bdamomma]

57. for sure

geez, what a dunce, and he is going to UN tomorrow for the general assembly. let's see how is he going to screw this up.

glad you are ok malaise.

[jimlup]

63. This one is a serious concern for my family

as it seems to have eyes set on North Carolina. Hope it turns out to sea well before then.

[malaise]

64. Too early to tell

Hope not - this will be another destructive hurricane - now Cat4

Link to tweet

/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.democraticunderground.com%2F10029606773%23post4

[raccoon]

65. Then why didn't they name the hurricane something else? lol nt

[malaise]

66. LOL

[herding cats]

67. 130 mph Cat 4 now.

My thoughts are with those in its path.

[malaise]

69. Scary Comments at WU

[7:33pm] Recon finds an estimated pressure of 926mb and surface winds of 160 mph in #Maria's northwestern eyewall.

Just hit Dominica

Good effin' grief!

[herding cats]

72. That's insane!

I can't imagine being those poor people in the path of another major storm so soon.

[kydo]

70. she's a cat 5 now nt

[malaise]

71. Effin frightening

Damn

[kydo]

73. That's about all I could think

Poor Dominica. And Puerto Rico. This is insane.

[malaise]

74. I've run out of words

Time to scream - Dominica cannot handle this

[kydo]

75. Dominica will be devastated

And we are only at "M". While winter is coming, November is still a long way away. I will scream with you. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[malaise]

80. Cell service gone now

Damn! This will be a frightening night. Dominica will have mudslides on top of the wind devastation

[kydo]

82. And she is going to just get stronger

This is a nightmare Hurricane season. That's gonna be the situation in Puerto Rico.

[OliverQ]

76. It's expected to hit Puerto Rico as a Cat 5. Nothing in the way to weaken it.

[malaise]

78. Everything in its path on the way to Puerto Rico will be devastated

The Caribbean cannot handle these two recoveries

[catbyte]

83. Jesus, I can't believe how fast she strengthened. I think it took everybody by surprise,

but when you've got ocean temps in the low 90's and no wind shear, catastrophic things happen. The poor people in Dominica. It's 2038 EDT & they say that the eye should be over her within the hour. Dominica;s landmass will do nothing to weaken Maria. God help the people in Puerto Rico & other islands in Maria's path. I hope it recurves out to sea enough to miss the Carolinas.

[malaise]

84. From the Dominican Prime Minister

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-maria-latest-dominica-damage-prime-minister-roosevelt-skerrit-facebook-a7954541.html
'Dominica’s Prime Minister has said Hurricane Maria has stripped the island of “all what money can buy”. The Category 5 storm slammed into the small Caribbean island overnight. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit captured the terrifying power of Hurricane Maria in a series of Facebook posts, writing that he was “at the complete mercy” of the storm. After being rescued, he said: “We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds.” He added: “Initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. So, far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn away roofs in the city and the countryside. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.” Maria’s sustained wind speeds reached 160mph, with higher gusts, on Monday night.

[catbyte]

85. Oh, my God. How terrifying. It looks like Puerto Rico is right inits path now.

[Baclava]

86. CAT 5 now

[malaise]

87. Unbelievable

back to back Cat5s

[Baclava]

88. U in the cone?

It could take a wobble when it hits any land

[malaise]

89. No we're in the clear this time again

Would take one hell of a wobble to reach Jamaica - we'll get heavy rain from outer bands.
We're fully aware that our day will come...just not this time around.