A 2018 wave is building. But how big will it be?

[applegrove]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/26/politics/cnn-poll-incumbents/index.html

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large 

"SNIP........


Asked whether "most members of Congress" deserve re-election, just 22% of Americans say they do while 68% think they don't. Among registered voters, only 20% want most members re-elected while 70% would rather the majority of members not return to Congress.

What's even more striking is how low those "yes, deserves re-election" numbers are among Republicans and self-identified conservatives who, presumably, should be pleased with the Republican majorities in Congress. In fact, the opposite is true. Just 3 in 10 Republicans say they want to see most members reelected while only 25% of conservatives say the same. (Just 1 in 5 Democrats want to see most members reelected -- not surprising given the GOP Congressional majorities.)

It's worth noting that when it comes to the question of whether their own member of Congress deserves to be re-elected, people are far more supportive, with 44% saying they think their guy or a gal deserves another term. (The difference between the responses to those two questions is consistent historically; people may totally hate Congress but they tend to feel much more warmly about their own member.)


........SNIP"

[Tiggeroshii]

1. I think 44% is actually kind of low for that question?

I think that is a number reminiscent of how it is before wave elections?

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Depends on independents

For some inane reason they preferred Trump. Now all the polls indicate a decisive switch. Analytical articles regarding the Taddeo state senate victory tonight in Miami all point to independents as the key to that result. Republicans owned a 500 voter edge after early voting and apparently were supremely confident heading into today, but the independent vote flipped the race to Taddeo.

That's why Trump's overall approval rating isn't as significant as his favorability among independents. We need that to stay as low as possible.

Basically we need Trump to keep talking and keep tweeting. No chance he doesn't falter and implode as long as he's offering an opinion on something.