Why Virginia's Delegate Races Could Be the Most Telling 2017 Elections
Democrats have made a lot of hay out of special election upsets this year in deep red legislative districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma. But, those races have featured infinitesimal turnouts. For example, on Tuesday, Democrats flipped a state House district east of Manchester, New Hampshire, that gave Trump 59 percent of the vote last fall. But only 1,804 voters cast ballots in a district that cast 10,023 ballots last November.
As those elections show, Democratic voters are hyper-motivated right now. But their chances fall as turnout rises. On June 20, Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia's 6th CD after a $50 million contest that generated 56 percent turnout. The very same day, Democrat Archie Parnell came within three points of a shocking upset in a South Carolina race that attracted a fraction of the money and generated 19 percent turnout.
Virginia's House of Delegates races are a better proxy of what's to come in 2018. Turnout won't be too hot (as in Georgia) or too cold (as in New Hampshire). It will be driven by the governor's race, which better approximates what a midterm turnout looks like.
Moreover, there are plenty of vulnerable GOP Virginia delegates sitting in districts where Clinton outperformed Obama. Republicans like Dels. Jim LeMunyon (67th), Scott Lingamfelter (31st) and Tag Greason (32nd) all fit that bill - just as there are plenty of House Republicans sitting in districts where Trump is uniquely unpopular. Their races will test voters' inclination to send a message to Trump regardless of whether they know and like the local GOP candidates.
http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/why-virginias-delegate-races-could-be-most-telling-2017-elections
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