538's take on Flakes retirement and the Arizona Senate race

[leon8822]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-does-jeff-flakes-retirement-change-the-arizona-senate-race/

[NurseJackie]

1. Big picture: It doesnt.

So how does Flake’s exit change Arizona’s 2018 Senate election?

Big picture: It doesn’t. Arizona is likely to remain the Democrats’ best opportunity to pick up a Republican-held seat.1 But Flake’s retirement could make that pickup more or less likely — we just don’t know which yet.

[Initech]

9. After the way they screwed up the election last year, I'll never trust anything they say.

I really don't trust the voting right now because as long as the Russian bots exist, our elections are not safe.

[drray23]

2. i think it will be more likely we pick up the seat.

Bannon and his ilk are going to encourage and support the most crazy nut righwingers there is to run. This should make it easier for the dem to pick up votes from the more moderate republicans.

[Hoyt]

3. Hope so, but those "more moderate Republicans" voted for Trump.

[KelleyKramer]

7. Most of AZ did not vote for Trump

Trump carried AZ with only 49%

[Hoyt]

8. Trump and Johnson 53%. And Rs have held Senate for a long time. Maybe it will turn this time.

[RandySF]

4. I disagree with one point.

Nevada is our best pickup opportunity.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Disappointing article

Candidate obsessed instead of analyzing the terrain. There was basically nothing on that, which is pathetic.

538 should know better. Actually, some of their specialists do know better.

[Tatiana]

6. This will be really close, but Kyrsten Sinema is a strong moderate candidate that can win.

This is a perfect example of matching a candidate to their constituency.

All we need to do is tee up ads of Kelli Ward insulting John McCain. It's one thing for Trump to do it. It's entirely another thing for an Arizonan to do it to another Arizonan (who happens to be a real war hero).