Hampton University poll: Gillespie ahead 8 pts in va governors race

[Tiggeroshii]

With 27% undecided

http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Nationally-Recognized-Hampton-University-Poll-Places-Gillespie-in-Gubernatorial-Lead-in-Virginia

[lagomorph777]

1. This is effing scary!

Racism sells!

[hibbing]

2. Check out his latest advert

Another confederate statue ad, I'm for keeping them up, my opponent wants to take them down. Not too much of a dog whistle, led by the racist currently in the White House.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. Okay here's the thing I'm waiting for somebody to question the poll or it's methodology

I found this on washington free beacon, whichh I thought was an actual fake news site or satire. But the link to the university page took me to the link I shared. It isn't posted in any averages like five thirty eight or rip, which is increasingly leading time to question its authenticity.

[brush]

19. Hampton is an HBCU. I highly doubt that poll is legit.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. Hbcu?

What does being a historically black college have anything to do with the legitimacy of the poll

[brush]

34. AA students favoring a repug? Doubtful.

[LanternWaste]

47. The center polled 750 registered voters, not students.

The center polled 750 registered voters from a random sampling of 400 landline and 350 cell phones in VA rather than students attending Hampton University.

[Drahthaardogs]

33. I do not know if it is or is not, BUT

We said the same thing when polls showed Trump closing.

Now, I am not convinced they did not plant those so they could have our elections, but...

[FBaggins]

42. 538 grades them a "B" with a very slight D leaning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Tiggeroshii]

45. Good to know! Thanks

It seems like they tend to be outliers quite often

[Eliot Rosewater]

4. Hug your loved ones, take that trip you have been debating, there likely isnt enough

time to take it but plan it now.

America is gone for sure, the question is will we all die also.

And all because...ooops, I am not allowed to say why ....

[mfcorey1]

43. I totally agree!

[doc03]

5. And we keep hearing how the Republican party is in a meltdown. They get

control of a couple more states they will re-write the Constitution.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Fortunately even if we lose Virginia, we will win nj

Giving a net change of 0. Still scary as fuck though :/

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Not true...Virginia is a must win

The national narrative will completely change if Gillespie wins. It will equate to 2017 being a successful year for the GOP. Trump will taunt and taunt. Suddenly the low approval ratings mean nothing. Republicans who are hesitant to run in 2018 will sense they can get away with it, if not thrive. It will lead to even more outrageous candidates successfully wooed by Bannon.

I don't believe in this poll margin, or the ones indicating Northam has a big lead. Logic points to a tight race. Gillespie barely lost to Mark Warner in the 2014 senate race despite Warner owning a 56% approval rating and leading the pre-election polls by 9 points on average. Yet they were still counting the votes days after election day. That's how tight it was. I remember Nate Silver writing a very long column after being surprised at how tight that outcome turned out to be. He said it would have been the largest senate upset in nearly 20 years based on polling.

So if Gillespie owned enough benefit of a doubt 3 years ago against a popular incumbent I don't see hows he's projected to get thumped in an open race against a lesser candidate. Voters typically are more willing to switch parties for governor than in federal races.

Besides, the white and rural trend toward Republicans is very real. Gillespie likely will outperform his 2014 numbers in those rural areas. Coal is a factor in Virginia.

While intelligent voters are outraged at Trump and independents have shifted away from him, the bottom line in these odd-year races is that turnout is comparatively low...probably 40% or less...and those rural angry white voters are more likely to show up than some of our constituencies like young single females, who often can't be bothered to vote in elections like this one.

I still think Northam will win narrowly but obviously an indication like this one is a jolt.

[muntrv]

7. They love them confederate monuments more than the USA.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Seems like an outlier. I will await more polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

[Tiggeroshii]

9. I mean it isn't even being considered in rcp yet or 538.

I wonder if they didn't even give options and went entirely off of name recognition without considering political affiliation

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It's an outlier and an extreme one at that.

It's an outlier and an extreme one at that:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

It doesn't mean it's wrong . It just means statistically speaking it's more likely it's wrong than right.


I found this nugget:

UPDATE: On Thursday, the Hampton University Center for Public Policy issued a statement defending itself.

“The Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) actively polled likely voters about the Virginia Senate Race during the 2014 General Election season. After reviewing the final data from a poll conducted days before the Election, the CPP discovered statistical inaccuracies which led to an immediate review of the data and the mode of data collection.

The Center for Public Policy did not release the poll based on dramatically skewed results which showed Democrat Mark Warner, with a double digit lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, despite social and empirical data to the contrary/

...

http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/17/the-strange-case-of-a-virginia-university-and-its-polling/

Maybe it's just a flawed poll. I'll go with the average.

[4139]

12. You made me look, I saw that one but 2016...

They had Hillary by 4% in Virginia and she won by 4.9

http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Hampton-University%27s-Nationally-Recognized-CPP-Poll-Shows-A-Voter-Toggle-between-Clinton-%26amp%3B-Trump-with-Just-Hours-Left-to-Vote

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. So they are 1 for 2.

I wouldn't play Russian Roulette with those odds.

[4139]

18. No, the 2014 senate poll the did not release! They knew it was bad and didnt release it

Can’t fault their accuracy for a poll never released.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Maybe they shouldn't have released this poll since it's an outlier too

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html


What is the rationale for releasing one outlier poll and suppressing the other ?

[octoberlib]

13. Whew! Thanks for the info.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. They could be right,

But I will look at the average:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

before I run around with my hair on fire.

[octoberlib]

11. David Beard of DK Elections

Link to tweet

I am 100% confident that the VA Governor's race will be somewhere between Northam +14 and Gillespie +8

Contributing editor, @DKElections. Labor/Dem politico. I write various things

[Tiggeroshii]

17. LOL

I think that is probably a safe bet...

[crazycatlady]

22. Just got an email about call out the vote in VA

HEre's the link to sign up (call from anywhere)

https://www2.democracyforamerica.com/events/dfadialer/2017?akid=10055.2015136.VpygPh&rd=1&refcode=g-dfadialer1025.d-20171025.m-10055.s-36756&t=2


(I can't participate as I'm running a GOTV operation in NJ)

[riversedge]

27. Thanks

[ileus]

23. He's going to lose by 20.

We've got this state wrapped up.

[Tiggeroshii]

24. How do you know?

Warner was up 10 in 2014 and barely squeaked it out

[ileus]

25. he may not win by 20

however.com I can pretty much promise a good old ass kicking by a leas 8-10 points.

Even if we have a poor D turnout, there's not enough votes on their side to beat us.

Consider Virginia a mini California now...we can't lose.

[Tiggeroshii]

26. California still elected Pete Wilson and enacted the 3 strikes law

The transformation took some time :/

But obviously I hope you are right, I've just had way too many unpleasant surprises lately. We all have.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

32. Do you happen to know...

how the Northam campaign is doing financially?

[OliverQ]

35. We also said Hillary couldn't lose.

As far as I'm concerned, this country is so horrible, it's more than likely a Republican will win and we have to do everything possible to stop them.

[StevieM]

41. That's not a good analogy IMO. First, HRC was going to win big before the Comey intervention

completely turned the race on its head.

Second, the predictions that Hillary was on her way to victory were based on polling data, not unbridled optimism. The polls didn't change until after the aforementioned Comey intervention.

[Dawson Leery]

36. Such confidence.

I am inclined to say we win by the average of 5 points.

[BainsBane]

38. No

It will be close, regardless of who wins.

[RandySF]

28. Yeah....I don't think so.

[Dawson Leery]

29. No poll has shown more than 10% undecided.

27% undecided two weeks out?

Not buying it.

Both sides have internal polling with Norrtham ahead by 5-6%

[FBaggins]

44. They used a different methodology

Most polls ask which candidate you're leaning toward if you initially say that you're undecided. This poll lumped all of those people into "don't know".

That's not illegitimate, it's just a different view.

So, for instance, it's possible for both types of polls to be correct. In this case, it would indicate that Gillespie is ahead among those who have absolutely made their minds up, while Northam has a massive lead among those who aren't quite as sure (but who say that they're sure that they'll vote).

This indicates an even stronger-than-normal need for GOTV efforts and a vulnerability to last-minute switches (as apparently happened in the Senate race last year). It also means that if the race were held today we would probably win it... but that there is reason for worry and increased attention on the part of the national party.

[Tiggeroshii]

46. That's a bad sign because those who are sure are far more likely to vote than those who arent

[RandySF]

30. 538 tweeted on it.

Link to tweet

[peggysue2]

31. Even with the Hampton poll figured in . . .

Real Clear Politics has Northam with a 3.9 advantage. It may be close but not all is lost. I also wouldn't categorize RCP as anything close to having a liberal bias.

One poll is just that, one poll. We shall see.

[Dawson Leery]

37. This poll also had Donnie up by 3 last year.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029751662

[RandySF]

39. Hampton U had Perriello winning the primary.

I’d also note that Hampton U’s pre-primary poll was wildly off, showing Tom Perriello up 6 points on Ralph Northam on the Democratic side and Ed Gillespie up 17 points on Corey Stewart (with Frank Wagner actually a point ahead of Stewart!) on the Republican side. Not even close.


http://bluevirginia.us/2017/10/and-now-time-for-the-wild-outlier-poll-that-makes-absolutely-no-sense

[KelleyKramer]

40. Thanks for that. 27% undecided sounds really fishy too