Va. Exit polls---Northam will win by 6 points

[louis c]

I've been watching the exit poll numbers on CNN and MSNBC, and I have extrapolated a 6 point Northam win.

The polls have indicated that women made up 52% of the Virginia electorate, and men 48%.

Gillespie carried men by a 53% to 45% margin.
Northam carried women by a 59% to 40%.

After doing the math, Northam will win by a 52.3% to 46,3% margin. 6 points.

[book_worm]

1. We'll see.

[louis c]

5. Early numbers have a close race BEFORE Northern Virginia comes in. (NT)

[Stallion]

2. NYT Live Estimate Agrees: Northan +5.6

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam

[FreeState]

3. NYT live estimate is in line with that

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam#eln-forecast-section

Its been bouncing between 4 and 7.

[elleng]

4. How many exit polls are available now, and where are they?

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. That would be consistent with the polling up till now.

The real heavy votes come in at the end in Fairfax.

[StevieM]

7. I had it as a 4 point Northam win. I am basing that on the vote for under 45 and over 45.

It said that Northam won by 26 points among voters under 45. Gillespie won by 7 points among voters over 45. And voters under 45 were one third of the electorate.

That is a 33 point difference. One third of that is 11 points. Subtracting 11 points from 7 gets you negative 4. So that comes out to a 4 point win for Northam.

Maybe I misread the poll as it was flashing across the screen.

[louis c]

8. Men and Women are always easier to calculate.

[bagelsforbreakfast]

9. my head is spining - lol

[MyNameIsKhan]

10. I think it will be between 7-8 points

[Foolacious]

11. Remember the Red Shift

In jurisdictions that use electronic voting, Republicans receive an average of about 3% more reported votes than exit polls (and pre-election polls, for that matter) would indicate, and Democrats about 3% fewer, for about a 6% swing. (No such shift in jurisdictions that use paper ballots.) So cross your fingers.

[L. Coyote]

12. Extrapolated, you say. Did your algebraic predict your algorithm?

I know, math is confusing.

[louis c]

13. Pretty close to "on the nose", ha? (NT)