General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNevernose
(13,081 posts)President Clintons judicial nominees?
At this point, I sadly have more faith in Michael Moores analysis than Nate Silvers. His record is better. I also have incredibly little faith in the ability of Trump voters to do not just the right thing, but the sane thing. Or even the self-serving thing.
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)OhZone
(3,216 posts)And I seem to remember him having Trump trending up just before the election. And he got complaints about that.
I still think there was a certain amount of - something - at least, voter suppression, that got Trump over the top in those swing states.
I think a lot of voters, who didn't understand how important it is to get to the polls, are really pissed now.
I don't know what will happen but it's great that it's even close in Alabama!
StevieM
(10,530 posts)"got over the top." That implies that it was a close race to begin with.
The Comey intervention completely turned the race upside down. Before it happened Trump was heading towards a decisive defeat.
gopiscrap
(24,101 posts)jl_theprofessor
(95 posts)for giving Trump a much better chance of winning than just about anyone else.
Maraya1969
(22,919 posts)And after that he raised then. He had them real close on election day.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,413 posts)their guy is sent to Washington. There are things that polling can't account for...such as voter suppression, absentee and provisional ballots being "lost" or thrown out; and voter intimidation. This is AL we're talking about. There will have to be a massive turnout among Moore's opponents because you can be sure the evangelical preachers will be driving the point home every Sunday until election day.
RandySF
(66,964 posts)But we still need to make fight for it.
herding cats
(19,585 posts)scipan
(2,595 posts)from RCP. Wow, there's a chance we could win.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html
herding cats
(19,585 posts)The independent pollster I mentioned above also has Jones up 46-42. Which is a 6 point increase over his previous polling.
http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Alabama-Senate-Executive-Summary-General-Election-Poll-2.pdf
In the end it depends on voter turnout.
Tatiana
(14,167 posts)And yes, it is Alabama, but even Alabamans have their pride.
The Republican vote will be depressed. This scandal, instead of energizing the deplorables, is going to DEPRESS them to stay home.
We can win with a coalition of Democrats, Independents, and a very small percentage of Republican women who will pull the lever for the most qualified and deserving candidate.
I still feel that when all is said and done, the final outcome will be between 1-2 points difference. We have to mobilize! Donate if you can!
calimary
(83,505 posts)We have to mobilize! In ALL ways possible! It sure worked out well last Tuesday!
Hamlette
(15,485 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And if she went back on that and changed it anyway, I'm thinking it could hurt the chances of whoever they replaced Judge Roy with. The voters might vote for our candidate just to let the 'thugs know they didn't appreciate being jerked around like that.
Cautiously optimistic here.