As it stands now, Dems will pick up 3+ Senate seats and 40+ House seats

[scheming daemons]

If Trump moves to fire Mueller and the GOP congress doesn't move to impeach him for it....

The Dems will pick up 5+ Senate seats and 75+ House seats.


And Trump will be impeached in January of 2019 in that scenario.


Trump is a cornered animal right now.... and even though firing Mueller would result in unrest in the streets and the dismantling of the GOP.... he will be willing to take that chance to keep himself in power as long as possible.

[Dawson Leery]

1. What if Conman starts a war with North Korea?

[roamer65]

3. Then the country starts to come apart.

[struggle4progress]

4. No one with even a smattering of common sense will pretend to peer knowingly

into the fog of such a war

There are too many different possible fault lines along which existing alliances could fracture

In the most limited case, it is reasonable to suspect that such a move would destroy the international credibility of the US for several generations and would force major re-alignments

Less-limited cases would inflict unimaginable damage on modern technological civilization and the world economy with far-reaching consequences that we should prefer not to contemplate

We can't game-play the scenarios in any meaningful way

[Soxfan58]

28. I agree

But a smatteting of common sence is hard to find in todays republican party. And we are dealing with severe mental illness in the oval office.

[Aristus]

8. The secessions will begin...

Long Live The Republic Of Cascadia!

[gopiscrap]

18. Yes

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. If Seoul is flattened

If Seoul is flattened , if China gets involved, if Tokyo is nuked the Dow falls 10,000 points and the world goes into recession.

[H2O Man]

2. Trump would have

to fire the Assistant Attorney General, Mr. Mueller, and 14 others to even hope to end the investigation and prosecutions.

[Dale Neiburg]

25. And that doesn't include the state investigations (like NY) n/t

[PragmaticDem]

5. It is a pleasure to be here. I think we will hold all our seats and pick up NV and AZ. TN will...

...be fun to watch. Phil Bredesen in TN should be a great candidate, but it is not my state or region so I don't know what happens. I am hopeful though. The house I think we should get at least 40 seats.

[oasis]

6. Impeach, no. (Pence far worse). Just keep Trumps feet to the fire

until 2020, then dump both assholes.

[pnwmom]

7. Pence isn't far worse. He isn't Svengali, with the ability to hypnotize supporters.

He was just a run of the mill unpopular Governor in Indiana. He won't rise to the occasion as President.

[oasis]

9. If Trump is removed, Pence becomes president until 2020. Voters

will find him far less objectionable than 45. Nutball Trump would be a cinch to lose a reelection bid.

[scheming daemons]

11. Pence would be a lame duck from the moment he was sworn in.

Republicans don't even like him.

He's not more dangerous, especially with a Dem congress after 2018. He'll be completely useless, without Trump's base behind him (hell, many of them will believe conspiracy theories that he was behind Trump's ouster).

[pnwmom]

12. Trump's supporters will hate him for usurping Trump.

And for the rest, he will be smeared by association. (Gerald Ford was a nice enough guy but he couldn't survive his connection with Nixon.)

There is also a strong possibility that Pence will be swept up in the lying to the FBI.

[whathehell]

19. Trump is worse..Would rather have Pence til 2020 then vote him out

Trump is nuts and/ or stupid -- Pence sucks but he's not the dangerous loose cannons thatTrump is

[JimBeard]

20. Doesn't Trump need to be convicted of a crime by the Senate after he is Impeached?

It requires 2/3 of the Senate for convection. Not going to happen.

[whathehell]

35. Nope

That's a common misconception -- He needs to be convicted of an impeachable offense, not a "crime" necessarily.

[eShirl]

24. but he isn't constantly stepping on his own... tie, like Donald the Clown

foiling his nefarious schemes...

[Kentonio]

31. The idea of a religious fundamentalist getting to potentially fill SC seats is terrifying

Especially as in that scenario there's a good chance the GOP would go along with him because they couldn't afford any more internal disruption.

[Jspur]

10. For impeachment

I think you need atleast 2/3 majority in the Senate. Can someone verify that for me. If that's the case even with a majority the Dems would still need republicans to join in to impeach him.

[NCDem777]

13. Yeah

Impeachment relies on Republicans having integrity

Since they don't there's no point spending what little air time we get talking about it

[pnwmom]

14. That's true. But if we can control the House, we can control the hearings

and everything DT has done will come out. It will be much harder for the Senate GOP to vote against impeachment if it can be shown that DT was involved in money laundering and bribery.

[SoCalMusicLover]

16. I Believe That's Inaccurate

Impeachment takes place in the House, while the Senate votes to Convict.

I believe Nixon resigned before the Senate had to vote. Clinton was Impeached by the House, but the Senate vote to convict was not close to the 2/3 needed.

I think you only need 50%+1 to Impeach.

[Jspur]

17. Conviction was

what I was trying to get at. Impeachment is pretty much meaningless unless you can get a conviction in the Senate to remove Trump.

[Jim Lane]

39. More detail about the Nixon chronology

Nixon resigned before even the House vote, let alone the Senate, so he was never impeached.

The House Judiciary Committee voted to send articles of impeachment to the full House. Then, after more evidence surfaced, Nixon's allies on Capitol Hill told him that impeachment was a certainty and that, in the Senate, he'd probably have support from about one-sixth of the Senators, instead of the more-than-one-third it would take to acquit him. He resigned rather than let either of those votes occur.

Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton remain the only Presidents to have been impeached. Nixon is nevertheless the only one who actually left office because of the impeachment process.

[shanny]

26. Yup: 67 votes in the Senate.

It would be a heavy lift even if we had Republicans with integrity--which of course we don't: instead we have a bunch of bloodsuckers and a smattering of poseurs who pretend to agonize before sucking our blood.

[BigmanPigman]

15. I think we should make a plan with McDonald's to supply him with junk food 24/7

and hide his Polygrip denture cream. That way he will either stroke out or choke on his own teeth. Of course some crazy NRA dude could go off on him over anything that red state voters find irritating. That is a possibility too.

[JimBeard]

21. You had better get in gear, the 2018 Texas Primaries are March 6th, 2018, about 3 months.

[Kablooie]

22. I wonder if we'll even get to election 2018.

I feel a tension that the whole structure of the government could be in danger if Republicans continue to fight against the rule of law and the separation of powers.
We could be in a civil war by next November so the election never happens.
And with net neutrality gone the government might be able block communications that go against their coup.

The future doesn't feel rosey to me right now.

[DFW]

23. As it stands now..........

"The USA is about to elect its first woman president" -- early November, 2016.

Believe what they say about counting unhatched chickens.

[GoCubsGo]

29. Yep. And, don't think the Russians won't try to ratfuck us again.

They haven't stopped it, as it is.

[DFW]

32. Nope. Nothing succeeds like success

And they pretty well demolished us in 2016 without firing a single shot.

[sabbat hunter]

27. which 5 seats

do you see the D party picking up?

[scheming daemons]

36. If Mueller is fired....

Nevada (Heller)
Arizona (Flake)
Tennessee (Corker)
Texas (Cruz)

and sadly McCain either not surviving or resigning for health reasons, so a second Arizona seat.

[sabbat hunter]

40. Of those seats

the only one that I think is realistic, even if Mueller is fired, is Nevada, as that state is kinda purplish anyhow. For the rest you would have to run someone like Moore to have a shot.

[greymattermom]

30. I don't see much written about R seats in the California fire areas

Are there any? Not getting any government help has to hurt.

[Persondem]

34. Would be nice, but generic forecasts in the age of gerrymandering are bound to

be inflated, at least for the House.

[aka-chmeee]

37. IF there is a 2018 n/t

[Scurrilous]

38. K&R