UK guilty of 'catastrophic misreading' of Ukraine crisis, Lords report claims
Source: Guardian
The UK is guilty of sleepwalking into the crisis in Ukraine and has not been as active or visible as it should, according to a damning report into the British and European approach to the crisis by the main Lords committee on foreign affairs.
The report the fullest evaluation of the Ukraine crisis to emerge from parliament also finds that expertise within the Foreign Office towards Russia has diminished significantly, and according to the committee chairman, Lord Tugendhat, led to a catastrophic misreading of the mood in the run-up to the crisis.
The committee also warns that as a signatory to the 1994 Budapest memorandum, setting out the protection Europe would give Ukraine, the UK had a particular responsibility towards the country and it has not been as active or as visible as it could have been.
The warning comes just a day after RAF Typhoon fighters were scrambled to escort two Russian Bear bombers off the coast of Cornwall, and as a diplomatic row broke out after Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, issued a warning over Moscows threat to Natos Baltic states.
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Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/20/uk-guilty-of-catastrophic-misreading-of-ukraine-crisis-lords-report-claims
bananas
(27,509 posts)EU and Britain 'sleepwalked' into Ukraine crisis: UK lawmakers
LONDON (Reuters) - <snip>
In their report, lawmakers from the upper house of Britain's parliament heaped criticism on Moscow, which they said had been gradually turning away from Europe and had misread Ukraine's appetite for a trade deal with the EU.
But the House of Lords' EU Sub-Committee on External Affairs reserved some of its harshest criticism for the EU and Britain, saying they had made a series of errors in the run-up to the crisis and were partly to blame for the situation unraveling.
"There has been a strong element of 'sleepwalking' into the current crisis, with Member States being taken by surprise by events in Ukraine," the report said, saying the EU's absence of political oversight over trade talks with Kiev had been glaring.
"A loss of collective analytical capacity has weakened Member States' ability to read the political shifts in Russia and to offer an authoritative response," it added, saying the EU had failed to appreciate "the exceptional nature" of Ukraine.
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bananas
(27,509 posts)"Sleepwalking into self-destruction": ElBaradei fears for future world peace
By Jack Board, Channel NewsAsia
POSTED: 12 Feb 2015
Mohamed ElBaradei says dismantling outdated international groups including the United Nations, and focusing on better international cooperation is essential for avoiding conflict. Catch the full interview on Channel NewsAsia's Between the Lines, Feb 12, 11pm.
SINGAPORE: Nobel Peace laureate and former Egyptian Vice-President Mohamed ElBaradei has warned the world is "sleep-walking towards self-destruction" unless fundamental changes are made to the way peace is negotiated
In an exclusive interview with Channel NewsAsia, Mr ElBaradei called for a complete long-term overhaul of current government structures to emphasise dialogue and recognise the need for cooperation to tackle global issues. Without it, he believes conflict will remain an inevitable feature of the international landscape.
Unless we change course, unless we have a different mindset to understand that we are now have to find a system of global governance based on human solidarity not just on myopic geo-political interests, we can end up sleepwalking into self-destruction, he said.
This includes a restructure of organisations such as the United Nations, which he described as bereft of resources, of authority, and suffering from systemic dysfunction.
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bananas
(27,509 posts)Professor Stephen Hawking: aggression could annihilate the human race
Friday, February 20, 2015
Professor Stephen Hawking has said that aggression in the human race threatens to destroy us all.
The professor made the comments while he was escorting an American visitor around Londons Science Museum as part of a Guest of Honour prize.
Asked by the prize winner what human failing he would change if he could, the celebrity scientist said: The human failing I would most like to correct is aggression. It may have had survival advantage in caveman days, to get more food, territory, or partner with whom to reproduce, but now it threatens to destroy us all.
A major nuclear war would be the end of civilisation, and maybe the end of the human race. The quality I would most like to magnify is empathy. It brings us together in a peaceful, loving state.
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bananas
(27,509 posts)Stephen Hawking: space travel will save mankind and we should colonise other planets
Andrew Griffin
Friday 20 February 2015
<snip>
"Sending humans to the moon changed the future of the human race in ways that we don't yet understand," he said.
"It hasn't solved any of our immediate problems on planet Earth, but it has given us new perspectives on them and caused us to look both outward and inward.
"I believe that the long term future of the human race must be space and that it represents an important life insurance for our future survival, as it could prevent the disappearance of humanity by colonising other planets."
Science News in Pictures
Hawking made the comments after telling his guest, Adaeze Uyanwah, that the human failing he would most like to correct is aggression, which could destroy us all. Uyanwah was in London after winning a competition to get her perfect day out in the capital.
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Response to bananas (Reply #4)
goziosskiy This message was self-deleted by its author.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)The creaky old House of Lords, no less, have to be the ones to remind us that:
"For the Russians NATO is seen as a hostile military threat, and successive rounds of NATOs eastern enlargement have, as the Russians see it, brought it threateningly close to the Russian border. EU enlargement, as it has become conflated with NATO enlargement, has also taken on the aspect of a security threat."
muriel_volestrangler
(102,147 posts)You couldn't possibly be saying that it's fine to quote other parts of the Lords' report, could you?
freshwest
(53,661 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Despite the new ceasefire, current diplomatic approaches to deterring Russian aggression in Ukraine are a failure. While sanctions are destroying the Russian economy, they are not stopping the Kremlin from supporting rebels, deploying troops along Ukraines border or exercising their strategic nuclear force posture. Vladimir Putin prefers playing chess to the popular American board game Monopoly. His inner circle is interested in re-establishing a sphere of influence and a strategic buffer. They are betting that by the time Western sanctions work, Ukraine will be a failed state in the Russian orbit and NATO a hollow alliance.
Re-establishing security in Europe requires a bold new plan: accelerating NATO force modernization initiatives in Eastern Europe and immediately delivering its surplus Cold War equipment to Ukraine. The plan is simple and sends a clear signal. NATO member states back Ukrainian independence and have the military capabilities to deter future conventional conflict. The plan requires Congressional committee action. The next National Defense Authorization Act should include language that fast tracks foreign military sales for Eastern European members of NATO. These countries need firm guarantees the United States is committed to NATO and willing to replenish weapons stockpiles they send to defend Ukrainian sovereignty.
There is historical precedent for using NATO equipment to resupply an ally in the middle of a conflict. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the United States military launched Operation Nickel Grass, airlifting more than 22,000 tons of military equipment, including stockpiles from depots in Europe, to Israel. The move was not without risk, leaving NATO conventional defenses significantly weakened in the event of a crisis with the Warsaw Pact. Yet, decision makers at the time correctly calculated that the Soviets would not capitalize on the situation before America replenished the stockpiles.
In the current crisis, the United States will again have to play a leadership role, using is edge in military logistics to help deliver the equipment to Kiev while fast tracking foreign military sales required to replace Soviet era weapons. The Ukrainian Freedom Support Act authorizes the U.S. president to address Ukraines persistent requests for weapon, highlighting the need for anti-tank weapons, drones and radar systems. Congress can build on this act with an expanded initiative that helps NATO partners replace Soviet era equipment with more up to date American systems.
http://blogs.rollcall.com/beltway-insiders/how-to-save-ukraine-accelerate-nato-military-modernization/?dcz=
bemildred
(90,061 posts)---
The agreement reached enshrined a ceasefire as of Sunday, 15 February. On the other hand, it formalised what the Merkel-Holland duo had already obtained from Putin. Elections will take place only in the areas marked by the previous September agreement (Minsk 1), meaning not also in the several hundred square kilometres the separatists had conquered in January. Russian secessionists are not to be a separate part in any negotiation and a major concession to Putin the border between Ukraine and Russia in the separatists-controlled region will not be defended by Ukrainians or some international force, but will practically be just a virtual line between the separatists and the protective Russia, situation which will be revised after elections. But the separatists have a veto on a fundamental thing Ukraines membership of military alliances or economic blocs EU and EUA any constitutional reform requiring their approval. Of course that Russia also hoped to obtain a relaxation (at least) of sanctions. But on Monday, 16 February, not only did the EU take further sanctions (Russian leaders and separatists indexed in what regards their assets or travelling to the West), but also made it clear that any existing sanctions would be dropped if the ceasefire agreement lasted.
What is the importance of the Minsk-II agreement? The German media has praised Angela Merkels performance in opposing the deliveries of lethal armament to Ukraine, noting that we must follow the Realpolitik. Because the chancellor said it is evident that, regardless of the armament given to Ukraine, it is not at all certain that the Ukrainian army could very soon force Russia to be open to compromise, during which time the risk of a Russia-US war would escalate. It is equally true that certain voices have found a resemblance with the 1938 Munich agreement when a directorate of major European power made Czechoslovakia give Germany a portion of its territory without being consulted. A reader was commenting in the German Der Spiegel weekly: Sounds like the Sudatenland to me ! Another Peace in our time? hinting at the famous motivation/justification of the appeaser British PM Neville Chamberlain. On his blog, Julian Lindley-French was writing on 13 February: Peace in our time. Those hollow words came to define British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and the appeasement of Nazi Germany in the wake of the signing of the Munich Pact on 29 September, 1939. A day after the signing of yet another Minsk agreement it looks on the face of it as if the illiberal Realpolitik have once again trumped liberal naivety in an effort to bring peace to Ukraine. Indeed, several commentators have alluded to the similarities between the Munich Pact and the Minsk Agreement. In Ukraine, reactions are diverse, some of them being fully negative. A columnist of Ukrainian The Kyiv Post daily wrote that the president of Ukraine was pressured into peace at all costs by the fragmented EU that he is eager to join. He and Ukraine now face a recurring nightmare: the light-fingered neighbour next door has the key to the house and has annexed the nations sea-facing garden. Minsk II is tantamount to surrender for Ukraine. In the overall system, Minsk II undoubtedly stands for the beginning of a restructuring of the security architecture in Europe. The European duo the Franco-German axis could not contain Moscows imperialist appetite. Practically, Vladimir Putin appropriated a slice of Ukraine, on which he holds control although theoretically the territory is still under Kiev administration. The veto the region cam raise to Kievs foreign policy is a blow applied to the European security system. The Helsinki-1975 process and OSCE as foundations of European security have been voided of one of their min operating principles: the states freedom of decision on foreign mattes. We could add to that the fact that Ukraines territorial integrity was denied by the forced annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and we will obtain the image of the main break in the European security architecture. One of the guiding principles of the Helsinki-1975 commandment is the right of each State to define and conduct as it wishes its relations with other States in accordance with international law and in the spirit of the Helsinki Declaration.
So the question is what kind of security will Europe have post-Minsk-II?
http://www.nineoclock.ro/a-proxy-war-between-russia-and-the-west-i/
bemildred
(90,061 posts)THE EUs widening of its blacklist of Russians and Ukrainians, published last Monday, prompted a reaction by the local communist party AKEL, but President Nicos Anastasiades sought to reassure critics by arguing that the confrontation may be in its dying hours.
Mondays additions of 19 individuals and nine organisations to the list include Russian singer and crooning parliamentarian Iosif Kobzon, also known as the Russian Sinatra, as well as two deputy defence ministers.
The EUs decision was announced a day after a ceasefire was agreed and came into force on Sunday.
AKEL focused on the timing in a statement, accusing some dominant circles within the EU of not truly seeking peace in the Ukraine.
http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/02/20/akel-says-eu-sanctions-on-russia-fuel-conflict-further/
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Amsterdam: There are two ways to look at the loss of Debaltseve in Ukraine a final combat convulsion before both sides honour last week's Minsk ceasefire agreement; or just another humiliation of Ukrainian forces by Russian-backed separatists, of which there have been many.
The trajectory of this conflict suggests the latter. But the timing of the rout at a strategic transport hub in the country's east risks elevating it to what historians might record as a tipping point, at which Washington succumbed to pressure to supply lethal weapons to the Kiev government.
A recent marked change in US President Barack Obama's rhetoric from "we will not" to "I've asked my team to look at all options" coincides with a ramping-up of pressure from think tanks and others for Washington to arm Kiev to the tune of billions of dollars.
But the battle for Debaltseve has already been quite instructive about what Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to describe as an army of former miners and tractor-drivers can do, if given access to the weapons warehouses of a superpower; and about the awful training, morale and discipline of what pass for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
http://www.watoday.com.au/world/ukraines-latest-defeat-confronts-west-and-obama-with-costly-zerosum-game-20150220-13kctu.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Feb 20 (Reuters) - The European Union will consider "reframing" energy relations based on market conditions with Russia when the time is right and for now is focusing on building a strategic gas partnership with Ukraine, a draft document shows.
The European Commission, the EU executive, is seeking to create a single energy market, based on cross-border connections to improve security of supply and reduce dependence on Russia, which supplies roughly one third of EU energy.
Next week, the Commission is expected to publish formally its strategy on an energy union.
"When the conditions are right, the EU will consider reframing the energy relationship with Russia based on a level playing field in terms of market opening, fair competition, environmental protection and safety, for the mutual benefit of both sides," a draft of the Energy Union Package seen by Reuters says.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/eu-energyunion-russia-idUSL5N0VU1UL20150220?rpc=401
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The Ukrainian military and pro-Russian rebels both accused the other of launching strikes on Friday despite a ceasefire meant to be in effect since Sunday. Government troops reported that the rebels had attacked their positions 49 times in the past 24 hours, using rockets, artillery, and armored vehicles exactly one year after protests set the stage for the 2014 revolution.
"The number of attacks show the terrorists do not want to completely silence their guns," Ukrainian military spokesman Anatoly Stelmach said, adding that there had been some shelling in the district of Mariupol - a strategically valuable seaport the government fears will become the focus of the separatists' next offensive.
The rebels in turn accused the government of staging attacks in residential areas, particularly in the separatist stronghold of Donetsk, where one civilian woman was killed according to rebel press service DAN.
The fiercest fighting since the truce came into effect was in around the rail hub town of Debaltseve, with Ukrainian troops withdrawing from the town on Wednesday. However, a witness told news agency Reuters that he saw a tank firing from a separatist checkpoint near Debaltseve on Friday morning, indicating that the battle in this area had not completely stopped.
http://www.dw.de/rebels-promise-prisoner-exchange-as-ceasefire-stumbles-in-eastern-ukraine/a-18270488
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Paris---The foreign ministers of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine will meet in Paris on Tuesday to discuss the conflict in eastern Ukraine, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Friday.
The meeting will take place on Tuesday morning at the French foreign ministry, following a request by the respective heads of state and government, Fabius said.
http://thepeninsulaqatar.com/news/international/322906/russian-french-german-ukrainian-fms-to-meet-in-paris-tuesday-paris
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has enforced the National Security and Defense Council decision dated Jan. 25, 2015, introducing "extraordinary measures against the Russian threat and Russia-backed terrorism manifestations" in eastern Ukraine.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-enacts-security-councils-decision-on-extraordinary-measures-to-resist-russian-aggression-381372.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The recent ceasefire agreement signed in the Belarussian capital of Minsk is not to Ukraines best interests, as it fails to guarantee a cessation of Russian military aggression against Ukraine, Sikorski said in a television interview.
The ceasefire was negotiated between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France a configuration that is not to Ukraines best interests. Sikorski, who as foreign minister negotiated an end to the massacre of pro-EU demonstrators in Kiev in January 2014, said Russia was at one point willing to negotiate with Ukraine, the US and the EU.
I told [Ukrainian President] Petro Poroshenko that this would be better for Ukraine, he said. (an)
http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/197726,Ukraines-interests-suffer-from-US-exclusion-from-talks-with-Russia
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)it's no wonder he's feeling bold...