= new reply since forum marked as read
come 2017.
The Shiites see Iran as their Natural Ally, the Sunni Saudi Arabia. The Alawaits in Syria (Assad's people and tribe) are a mixture of Islam and Christianity with some Zoroastrianism through in (And is considered an off shoot of Shiite Islam, but in recent decades embraced Sunni Practices).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites
The Alawaits are closely connected by trade to the Shiites of Iraq and Iran AND the Christians of Lebanon. For years Assad's father received money from Saudi Arabia (which is roughly the time period the Alawites embraced more and more Sunni Practices). Then the revolt against Assad started and the radicals from Arabia said they were going off to fight "Christians" which to such radicals included (and the main thrust of their attack was against) the Alawites. IS still tends to call Assad and his fellow Alawites "Christians".
Religion tends to follow economics, and in the Mid East the historical main economic route over the last 1000 years has been Iran-Iraq-Syria- Lebanon. The competing route is Saudi Arabia-Jordan- Western Iraq, Eastern Syria then Turkey. Thus the fight in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq, that is where these two trade routes cross each other and come into conflict for that reason.
Religion in this case is following the Trade routes. Radical Sunni Islam, is working its way from Saudi Arabia to other Arab Nations and even Turkey. Shiite Islam is working its way from Iran, into the Persian Gulf, Iraq and Syria for that is how each of these countries see themselves.
Turkey is in many ways the odd man out. Turkey is dependent in Iranian Natural Gas and oil. Turkey wants to be where Iran, Saudi Arabia and even Russia sends they Natural Gas to Europe through. Thus Turkey is playing a dangerous game, working with all three (Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia) making commitments to each, but also having its own problems (The Turkish Army hates the present Government as to the "Secular Elites" of Turkey, but the present Government has done the best job of running the Economy of every government of Turkey, including its Military Dictatorships,since at least the 1950s, thus has massive support from the people of Turkey). Turkey has had several fair election and the present ruling religious party had prevailed in those elections.
On the other hand the present Government of Turkey is Sunni, but not the radical Sunnis of Saudi Arabia. The present Government of Turkey seems to be willing to work a deal for transporting National Guard to Europe from Russia, Iran or Saudi Arabia. Trade is more important then religion even in Turkey.
The present government of Turkey was the role model the Moslem Brotherhood indicated they wanted Egypt to follow; thus seeing how the military elites of both countries sees the Moslem Brotherhood. Please note Saudi Arabia also dislikes the Moslem Brotherhood for tge Brotherhod not being radical enough and for the Brotherhood being willing to work with secular people but also for the supports the Brotherhood give the Palestinians in not only words but deeds.
In many ways the fighting in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq is whose pipeline gets to go to Turkey. The big Natural Gas Field is off the coast of Qatar in the Persian Gulf, thus between Iran and Qatar (Qatar is a close Saudi Arabia Ally). Unlike oil, it is cheaper to ship Natural Gas by pipeline instead of by ship. The best route for a Qatar-Arabian- Turkey route is through Eastern Syria and Western Iraq, the best route from the Iranian shore opposite Qatar, to Iraq and then to Turkey is also through Eastern Syria and Western Iraq. That is the main reason for this fight NOT religion. Who ends up controlling Eastern Syria and Western Iraq will determine which pipeline from Qatar will be built and thus who gets to pump most of that Natural Gas off Qatar.
Thus the fight is between Iran and its allies and Saudi Arabia and its allies which includes Turkey, but only to a limited degree (Turkey is willing to take Iranian and even Russian Natural Gas if that is how events go).
Remember natural gas is a gas, to haul it by ship means you have to compress it, which required very well built ships to keep the compressed natural gas liquid AND you have to use about 1/3 of the natural gas to provide the power to compress the other 2/3rds. Thus pipelines, which lose less then 1% of it natural gas, cheaper when it comes to transporting natural gas to market. . i.e. if Iran or Saudi Arabia wins this fight, the other side has a 1/3 increase in its cost to get its Natural Gas to market. Thus whoever wins the pipeline fight, had a 1/3 advantage in the price of the Natural Gas it can sell.
Yes it is the route of Natural Gas that is being fought over, religion is just an excuse (and religion reflects existing political and economic alliances).
Thread on Natural Gas and this fight from September 2014, after the following thread was written, Putin gave up his Black Sea pipeline and agreed to a Turkish one to Europe, and Iran talked Turkey to accept its route so the Iran route can go via Turkey instead of Lebanon, Cyprus then Greece (But the later was NOT cut out of the deal, it is still doable).
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=903741
Map of the Natural Gas Field that can be pumped:
Existing Pipelines:
http://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/75789003317/study-on-middle-east-oil-and-gas-pipelines
Why risk your life fighting barbarians with a death wish when you can probably just sandbag and wait for the American fools heroes to come charging in and do it for you?
