Orders for durable goods drop 0.5 percent in April

[Omaha Steve]

Source: AP-Excite

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
WASHINGTON (AP) — Orders to U.S. factories for long-lasting manufactured goods fell slightly in April. But a category that reflects business investment posted a second increase, a hopeful sign that this key sector is starting to revive.

Total orders for durable goods slipped 0.5 percent from March, when orders had surged 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The big swing was driven by changes in commercial aircraft, an extremely volatile category that had jumped in March but fell in April.

Orders in the business investment category rose 1 percent in April after a 1.5 percent increase in March. The gains followed a sizable 5.1 percent fall in February. Business investment has been hurt by a stronger dollar sapping exports and cutbacks in the energy industry.

Demand for commercial aircraft had surged 40.7 percent in March only to fall 4 percent in April. Orders for motor vehicles and parts rose a modest 0.3 percent last month. Orders for durable goods excluding transportation posted a 0.5 percent rise in the first back-to-back increase this year.

FULL story at link.


Read more: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20150526/us--durable_goods-69fd2ebf92.html

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Here's a link to the source.

They don't make it easy.

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders April 2015

Here's the Census Bureau's website: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders

[happyslug]

2. If we exclude aircraft, we have had three months of decline in "Durable Goods".

Last edited Tue May 26, 2015, 08:25 PM - Edit history (1)

In the days of old, the 1970s, that was evidence that we were in a recession or entering one. Durable goods are lead indicators of recessions, people do not buy things if they are insecure about their employment, thus they delay buying large ticket items. On the other hand if they are secure about their employment they do buy large ticket items. That maxim still holds true, but it NOT reported by the media today, they wait till the official announcement of the Recession several months after we had been in one.

Now, the purchase of Aircraft is the only question mark. It was a large order in March, that cause March durable goods sale to increase as oppose to the declines in February and April. Thus this decline in sales is NOT a good sign. One month decline or increase may just be a statistical anomaly (as the "Gain" in March appears to be), but three months shows a strong tendency and thus was a sign of a recession around the corner.

[Populist_Prole]

3. Even so, A/C is not the bright spot it once was

For awhile, aircraft were one of the few good pieces of news in an overall glum trade or DNP picture.

Now Boeing, for instance is the offshorer and buster of unions. Hell, a few years back they openly stated they'd like to be a "virtual manufacturer" of A/C. Seems all they're coasting on these days is the halo-effect of their name and reputation of yore.