Trump, Clinton Lead Primary Matchups. Bush Ties Carson for Runner Up
Source: Morning Consult
The Morning Consult survey shows Trump leading among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents with 37 percent of the vote, compared with just nine percent for the second-place finishers, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) are tied for the next spot with six percent. Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) claims 5 percent of the vote, barely ahead of Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) at 4 percent.
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Though earlier polls have shown Trump building a broad coalition, a slight gender gap is beginning to emerge. More male voters, 41 percent, say they back Trump than female voters, 32 percent. Trump also gets a disproportionate amount of support from those without a college education, from Republicans in urban areas and from voters who say national security is their most important issue.
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Trump is almost universally known among registered voters, though just 42 percent say they have a favorable opinion of him. But among self-identified Republicans, 66 percent say they view Trump favorably, markedly better than any other candidate seeking the partys nomination. By contrast, just 52 percent of Republicans say they view Bush favorably... Bushs unfavorable rating among Republican voters, 36 percent, is higher than the 32 percent who say they see Trump unfavorably.
Read more: http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trump-clinton-lead-primary-matchups-bush-ties-carson-for-runner-up/
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)George II
(67,782 posts).....the "surge" is coming to an end.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)brooklynite
(94,489 posts)billhicks76
(5,082 posts)They know they both have been chosen by the same masters and nothing will be allowed to derail. Just watch. I'm sure the establishment will have their precious Hillary and Jeb. That anyone can stomach that is offensive. I want to see O'Malley more...at least he said something.
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)...if Bernie doesn't win, it's because THEY wouldn't let him...
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)That sounds so petty. This has nothing to do with Bernie. I commented here in 2008 that it would be Jeb and Hillary. And if you had been paying attention at all you would know representatives of Wall St have publicly stated they have chosen those two. And they have contributed money in like fashion. AND it was disclosed yesterday they have the same donors. That's a conspiracy theory? Your non-conspiracy theory is a conspiracy theory. O'Malley 2016!!!!!
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)so what?
It's still up to Sanders (or O'Malley) to find their own voters and turn them out (something Howard Dean wasn't able to do -- no conspiracy was required to make him come in third).
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)No conspiracy theory...coincidence theory maybe...but facts are facts. Romney...Bush...Clinton...why be in that group, Hillary? We know nothing will change if we do. Howard Dean was brought down by corporate politics not a lack of support. People clung to the notion a soldier on our side could win like Kerry but it was a fantasy ( although I believe the Ohio results were flipped through fraud). We need to be true to ourselves.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)bigger than the margin of error.
George II
(67,782 posts)The Democratic margin of error is +/- 3.2%, the republican margin of error is +/- 3.5%.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I think the race needs to flatten for a month to call the surge at an end.
This survey is essentially flat as compared to the last. But we need to see ling term trends develop.
I've predicted that Bnie tops out somewhere between 20 and 30%. I still think that's a decent prediction. But we'll see.
George II
(67,782 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)So a claim that Clinton is up and Nernie down is pretty specious, based on just those two polls.
But to be clear... I'm an HRC supporter and I think Sanders is nearing his ceiling. But I try to be as unbiased as I can when looking at the data.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)while Trump and Carson soar.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)L0oniX
(31,493 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)#45.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)to me though.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Trump + Carson + Fiorina have more support then the combined support of the remaining 14 candidates who have actually held public office.
It is still very early, but I'm not sure how the Republicans come back from its own base rejecting all of the party's mainstream candidates.