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Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:03 PM

Trump, Clinton Lead Primary Matchups. Bush Ties Carson for Runner Up

Source: Morning Consult

The Morning Consult survey shows Trump leading among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents with 37 percent of the vote, compared with just nine percent for the second-place finishers, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) are tied for the next spot with six percent. Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) claims 5 percent of the vote, barely ahead of Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) at 4 percent.
...
Though earlier polls have shown Trump building a broad coalition, a slight gender gap is beginning to emerge. More male voters, 41 percent, say they back Trump than female voters, 32 percent. Trump also gets a disproportionate amount of support from those without a college education, from Republicans in urban areas and from voters who say national security is their most important issue.
...
Trump is almost universally known among registered voters, though just 42 percent say they have a favorable opinion of him. But among self-identified Republicans, 66 percent say they view Trump favorably, markedly better than any other candidate seeking the party’s nomination. By contrast, just 52 percent of Republicans say they view Bush favorably... Bush’s unfavorable rating among Republican voters, 36 percent, is higher than the 32 percent who say they see Trump unfavorably.

Read more: http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trump-clinton-lead-primary-matchups-bush-ties-carson-for-runner-up/

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Reply Trump, Clinton Lead Primary Matchups. Bush Ties Carson for Runner Up (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 OP
hrmjustin Aug 2015 #1
George II Aug 2015 #3
hrmjustin Aug 2015 #4
Fred Sanders Aug 2015 #12
brooklynite Aug 2015 #14
billhicks76 Sep 2015 #15
brooklynite Sep 2015 #16
billhicks76 Sep 2015 #17
brooklynite Sep 2015 #18
billhicks76 Sep 2015 #24
Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 #7
George II Aug 2015 #11
Adrahil Sep 2015 #21
George II Sep 2015 #22
Adrahil Sep 2015 #23
Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 #5
hrmjustin Aug 2015 #6
Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 #8
hrmjustin Aug 2015 #9
Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 #10
L0oniX Aug 2015 #2
onehandle Aug 2015 #13
sufrommich Sep 2015 #19
Attorney in Texas Sep 2015 #20

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:05 PM

1. Hillary improved slightly it looks like.

 

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:08 PM

3. Clinton went from 50 to 52%, Sanders went from 24 to 23%. As expected....

.....the "surge" is coming to an end.

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Response to George II (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:11 PM

4. I hope. I expect it to be close but I want Hillary, not Sanders.

 

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:47 PM

12. I want whatever living breathing human body within the Democratic Party can crush the fascists.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 11:26 PM

14. If the Clinton campaign isn't worried, you shouldn't be either...

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #14)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 07:45 AM

15. Clinton And Bush Not Worried

 

They know they both have been chosen by the same masters and nothing will be allowed to derail. Just watch. I'm sure the establishment will have their precious Hillary and Jeb. That anyone can stomach that is offensive. I want to see O'Malley more...at least he said something.

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Response to billhicks76 (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 07:51 AM

16. A conspiracy theory is always handy; it always excuses your own failings...

...if Bernie doesn't win, it's because THEY wouldn't let him...

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #16)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 08:14 AM

17. Really?

 

That sounds so petty. This has nothing to do with Bernie. I commented here in 2008 that it would be Jeb and Hillary. And if you had been paying attention at all you would know representatives of Wall St have publicly stated they have chosen those two. And they have contributed money in like fashion. AND it was disclosed yesterday they have the same donors. That's a conspiracy theory? Your non-conspiracy theory is a conspiracy theory. O'Malley 2016!!!!!

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Response to billhicks76 (Reply #17)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 09:29 AM

18. A lot of those "representatives of Wall Street" supported Mitt Romney...

so what?

It's still up to Sanders (or O'Malley) to find their own voters and turn them out (something Howard Dean wasn't able to do -- no conspiracy was required to make him come in third).

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #18)

Wed Sep 2, 2015, 03:04 AM

24. Thats Not The Point

 

No conspiracy theory...coincidence theory maybe...but facts are facts. Romney...Bush...Clinton...why be in that group, Hillary? We know nothing will change if we do. Howard Dean was brought down by corporate politics not a lack of support. People clung to the notion a soldier on our side could win like Kerry but it was a fantasy ( although I believe the Ohio results were flipped through fraud). We need to be true to ourselves.

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Response to George II (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:14 PM

7. Both the Clinton change and the Sanders change are within the margin of error, but the Bush fail is

bigger than the margin of error.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #7)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:26 PM

11. You need to reread the article.

The Democratic margin of error is +/- 3.2%, the republican margin of error is +/- 3.5%.

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Response to George II (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 07:51 PM

21. Careful there...

 

I think the race needs to flatten for a month to call the surge at an end.

This survey is essentially flat as compared to the last. But we need to see ling term trends develop.

I've predicted that Bnie tops out somewhere between 20 and 30%. I still think that's a decent prediction. But we'll see.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #21)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 08:30 PM

22. Funny how when Clinton is up and Sanders is down it's "flat", but the opposite is a "surge"!

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Response to George II (Reply #22)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 09:21 PM

23. These two polls are well withing the margin of error...

 

So a claim that Clinton is up and Nernie down is pretty specious, based on just those two polls.

But to be clear... I'm an HRC supporter and I think Sanders is nearing his ceiling. But I try to be as unbiased as I can when looking at the data.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:11 PM

5. The Democratic polling did not seem much changed but in the Republican field, Bush and Walker tank

while Trump and Carson soar.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:12 PM

6. It will be interesting to see if this is confirmed in other polls.

 

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #6)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:17 PM

8. That is the trend in other polls -- see links

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #8)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:18 PM

9. 37 is the highest so we shall see if 8thers put it that high.

 

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #9)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:22 PM

10. Actually, he hit 40% in a recent Gravis poll - see link

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 08:07 PM

2. Hey ...are there any polls about this from China?

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Aug 31, 2015, 10:00 PM

13. Hillary stays strong. Everyone else on right and left have plateaued.

#45.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 09:35 AM

19. I think Trump may have plateaued, Carson rising is surprising

to me though.

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Response to sufrommich (Reply #19)

Tue Sep 1, 2015, 06:38 PM

20. Carson's rise is a bit odd (although no odder than Cain 2012 or Trump 2016). I can't believe that

Trump + Carson + Fiorina have more support then the combined support of the remaining 14 candidates who have actually held public office.

It is still very early, but I'm not sure how the Republicans come back from its own base rejecting all of the party's mainstream candidates.

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