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Sun Sep 13, 2015, 02:47 PM

Insider vs. Outsider Matchup Finds Clinton, Trump Near Even

Source: ABC News

The hypothetical contest stands at 46-43 percent, Clinton-Trump, a gap that's within the survey's margin of sampling error. That compares to a clear Clinton lead among all adults, 51-39 percent, indicating her broad support in groups that are less apt to be registered to vote, such as young adults and racial and ethnic minorities.
...
The close result in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, says as much about partisanship as it does about the candidates. Registered voters divide 45-40 percent between identifying themselves as Democrats, or leaning that way, vs. Republicans or GOP leaners. And 82 percent of leaned Democrats say they’d support Clinton, while 76 percent of leaned Republicans say they'd back Trump, were they the party nominees.
...
Clinton's support among women is based on her overwhelming backing from college-educated women, 68-20 percent. By contrast, Trump leads Clinton by a broad 55-34 percent among men who aren't college graduates. He runs about evenly with Clinton among women without a college degree and among men who've graduated from college.

The education gap, like the gender gap, is outsized. In exit polls since 1980, there has been little difference in candidate support among those with a college degree vs. non-graduates, an average of just 2 points; the biggest gap was 11 points in 1996, when Bill Clinton's support was higher among non-grads (+14 points) than among college graduates (+3 points). In the Clinton-Trump matchup, there's a vast 35-point gap; it's 57-31 percent, Clinton-Trump, among those with a college degree, vs. 49-40 percent, Trump-Clinton, among those without one. Indeed, even among college-educated leaned Republicans, Trump’s support slips to 67 percent, vs. 80 percent among those without a degree.


Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/insider-outsider-matchup-finds-clinton-trump/story?id=33689594



Don't just look at the headline; the internal numbers are most interesting.

Clinton is crushing Trump among moderates (48%-36%), 18-29 year olds (63%-27%), college grads (57%-31%), in the Northeast where they know Trump best (63%-32%) as well as the West (55%-30%).

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 03:16 PM

1. TRUMP

IF he is the nominee.. (he might very well be) Clinton would win , but a smaller margin. i think Bernie would beat him by a bigger margin IMO.. i could be wrong.. but thats just my .02

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Response to vadermike (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 03:35 PM

4. I agree Sanders and Clinton both beat Trump, and I think the Republican establishment agrees with us

which is why they will never let Trump win. If Trump does not collapse of his own accord before February, they will smear him in South Carolina and then take him out for good on Super Tuesday.

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Response to vadermike (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 06:43 PM

10. I disagree. If you are a non-ideologue independent who wants something different, is Sanders

 

the person you pick, who has been in the federal government 25 or so years, or do you pick someone who has never been in government but has, according to what he is pushing, been successful in the private sector and claims he can do the same thing with the government.

If you are looking for the person most qualified, Clinton is going to be a stronger choice than anyone on either side. She has that over Bernie and Trump.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 03:23 PM

2. Gross total polls mean nothing at all. This is misleading BS

I might pay a little attention if they did a state by state analysis, but is way too early for that.

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Response to MiniMe (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 03:27 PM

3. You say that the polls are meaningless, but they (1) drive fundraising, (2) motivate the revamping

of campaigns, (3) guide the decision whether someone like Biden will or won't enter the race, etc.

Such polls are useless in predicting what will happen in November 2016 (14 months away), but no one uses these polls for that purpose.

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Response to MiniMe (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 03:38 PM

5. No, what current polls reflect is the current mood of the country. This is not misleading

as long as you take it for what it is, a real time snapshot. And I think it's significant that at least for now Trump and Clinton are about even. For someone who is supposed to be the prohibitive front runner her results at the preset time are very weak.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 04:15 PM

6. Polls a year out do indeed just measure the mood of the country, it is all mainly just for fun.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 04:38 PM

7. Agree.

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 05:34 PM

8. The U.S. must look pretty dumb to the rest of the world. Trump's popularity is mind-numbing, to me.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 06:12 PM

9. Hello folks ,The Donald here !



Excuse me for saying so but at the face of it ,those polls have great entertainment value !
See what I mean down below !


https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/VOHwMx6HzMt105EPiA6lZg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NTQwO2g9MzYwO2lsPXBsYW5l/



?dPXtUJSC5w7NC7jBzjZAHZH7x.TqX45x&itok=VUDQd6dl

https://s.yimg.com/fz/api/res/1.2/60X...sYo1OXdDjgFj4H3w--/YXBwaWQ9c3JjaGRkO2g9NDAwO3E9OTU7dz02MDA-/

http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/hyVV0ipDO0KKkwnDO7Mlmg--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztmaT1maWxsO2g9Mzc3O2lsPXBsYW5lO3B4b2ZmPTUwO3B5b2ZmPTA7cT03NTt3PTY3MA--/



<a href="http://photobucket.com/images/jeb%20bush" target="_blank"><img src="" border="0" alt="jeb bush photo: Jeb Bush, Presidential Candidate GOV-JEB-BUSH-2.jpg"/></a>

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Response to Wash. state Desk Jet (Reply #9)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 09:18 PM

11. Jeb! looks like Mr. Potato head

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Response to davidpdx (Reply #11)

Sun Sep 13, 2015, 11:40 PM

12. Hello Folks Jeb here !

<a href="http://photobucket.com/images/funny%20photos%20jeb%20bush" target="_blank"><img src="" border="0" alt="funny photos jeb bush photo: Bush, Jeb jeb_zpspjyy4tpe.jpg"/></a>

I was just officially inducted into the tea party ,I'm their guy ,they gave me this gift, it's really really cool, I'm going to keep it on my mantel !

Isn't this really really cool, I'm honored to have it !
<a href="http://photobucket.com/images/funny%20photos%20jeb%20bush" target="_blank"><img src="" border="0" alt="funny photos jeb bush photo: Unusal Funny Pics (Real-Photos) UnusalFunnyPicsreal-photos-1.jpg"/></a>

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