Democrats Divided on Whether Joe Biden Should Enter 2016 Race

[Attorney in Texas]

Source: NBC

More Democrats say they do not want to see Joe Biden enter the 2016 presidential race than those who want to see him take the plunge, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows.

Thirty percent of Democratic primary voters say they want to see Biden run, versus 38 percent who say they would prefer that the vice president stay out of the 2016 contest.

Thirty-one percent say they do not have an opinion on a potential Biden campaign.

Biden gets 15 percent support in the latest survey out Tuesday morning, while Sanders receives the backing of 29 percent of Democratic primary voters. Clinton leads the pack, winning 49 percent support in the hypothetical matchup when Biden is included.

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/democrats-divided-whether-joe-biden-should-enter-2016-race-n447436

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Vice President Joe Biden:

We have a strong establishment candidate and an incredibly strong progressive alternative. Please

[leveymg]

1. HRC is still negative 6-10 among Independents, the biggest bloc of voters.

The road to the White House for HRC may take the Democratic Party over the cliff.

[Attorney in Texas]

4. I support Sanders. Whatever flaws Clinton may have, Biden does not help any Democrat win the general

election.

Biden is ideologically somewhat similar to Clinton, but where they differ, I cannot support Biden's positions:

* Biden's support for corporate debt collectors over financially struggling families in his bankruptcy activism;
* Biden's support for mandatory harsh criminal penalties for drug possession;
* Biden's statement that "abortion is always wrong" (but should be legal) and his support of the Hyde Amendment;

These troubling positions only augment concerns about his hawkish foreign policy (a worrisome view he shares with Clinton) and his support for banking deregulation (a stark contrast with Sanders but not very distinct from Clinton).

Added to the ideological concerns, Biden has a history as a weak campaigner. Biden is famous for his mouth racing ahead of his brain, and his first presidential run ended with the plagiarism scandal and his second presidential campaign was anemic:



Conclusion: Biden does not win the nomination, but he stalls Sanders' campaign momentum and weakens Clinton in the general election. Biden is a spoiler.

[turbinetree]

21. K&R +1

Honk---------------for a political revolution Bernie 2016

[longship]

2. I like Joe, but I do not see where his running for POTUS does any good for Dems.

I don't think it does much harm either, but I hope he says "No".

[Hiraeth]

10. Agree and if he is going to jump he should do it and get the mess over with.

I think his entering will hurt Clinton's numbers and while I don't really care for his positions I am really losing respect for him with all this "waffling". Either get in now, Joe or endorse some one and let's get this show on the road. Damn election season lasts too long anyway.

[NurseJackie]

20. This pretty much sums up the way I feel too …

… I like him. I take him at his word that he wanted time to consider whether he had the heart to make the run, and how it would affect his family. But at this late date, those things could have been easily determined already. Now, it appears that he's just poll-watching to see if he stands a chance.

Nothing wrong with that, I guess. It's understandable. Why would he want to enter a race if he feels he has no chance of becoming the nominee?

I get the feeling that he's not the kind of candidate who enters a race ONLY to guide the debate or to pull the other candidates further one-way or the other-way.

If he delays much longer, then it will be HE who'll be mocked with being called the "weathervane" candidate, so I guess there's that.

[Hiraeth]

23. True.

[Lychee2]

25. You don't understand what is going on.

Biden is the "insurance candidate." He is an "understudy" or "reserve candidate." He will only enter the race if Hillary's numbers get so low that it looks like she can't win the general election.

Biden isn't "waffling." He is stalling. He is waiting for the right time, if any, to enter the race.

[Hiraeth]

30. What a fucking pawn he is, if that is the case. No respect at all. Done. NurseJackie just about

said the exact opposite. Either way he looks weak and pitiful to me now. ugh. just. ugh.

[wordpix]

3. he has to distinguish himself from Hillary & that's dangerous

if he has any dirt on her. If he besmirches her too much and she's the nominee, it could derail her & put Trump in office

[Evergreen Emerald]

5. I think is is about ego

He has wanted to be President and has run a number of times, not coming close. The VP position gives him the biggest leg-up he could ever have. He starts better than any other time in past elections. It would be difficult to pass up the opportunity.

[BootinUp]

18. I have a different theory

Assume for a minute that he rates his chances of winning nearly as low as most pundits do, then what could be a reason for him to enter the race? If we look at his political background and his style, one must conclude he would be to the right of Clinton on policy and rhetoric. So the only thing that makes sense to me assuming both of my previous points, is that he intends to move the debate (policy or rhetoric) to the right.

[Robbins]

6. God forbid

there isn't a cornation for Clinton.

[Attorney in Texas]

9. God forbid a true progressive is rising to stop any coronation; Biden, save us from Sanders!

[Hepburn]

11. Biden, save us from Hillary! n/t

[Attorney in Texas]

15. The only thing a Biden candidacy would save us from is a Democratic win in 2016. His candidacy

weakens Sanders' challenge for the nomination which is making real progress and, if Sanders cannot pull off the upset (which is much harder to accomplish with Biden in the race), then Biden's candidacy will still weaken Clinton in the general election.

Biden's only realistic path to the nomination requires a brokered convention, which is poison in the general election,

[uawchild]

24. excellent analysis

Your point: That Biden's getting in would weaken Sanders' challenge for the nomination and simultaneously will still weaken Clinton in the general election if she is the nominee.

Sorry, Joe, you are too late to the game to be a productive candidate.

[karynnj]

7. It may be that Clinton's triangulation on positions, may cause her problems in the general election

She has, in essence, played the mirror image of Romney 2012. Romney had credentials as a more moderate Republican, but he redefined himself to be one of the more right wing - especially on immigration. He clearly thought he needed to do that to win the primaries, but it made him far less likely to win the general election.

In 2012, it seemed to me that he did not have the energy and enthusiasm from the right as they KNEW he was really not one of them. Yet, those positions may have hurt him with independent voters who might have been impressed with the MA healthcare system that happened when he was governor and was the role model for ACA.

I doubt HRC would have a strategist as tone deaf as the Romney one (Eric Fehrnstrom) who tole the media that primary positions don't matter and that it was as if they were written on an Etch a Sketch.

Hated as it is on DU, it might be Biden who defends the Obama administration's trade bill -- as it come to a vote. Now, we don't really know the details. Leaks often tend to be off base -- look at the Iran framework vs what most expected. What if this really is the first trade bill that MODERATES the impact of globalization? If you believe that it is globalization that has been the root of most problems that trade bills have been blamed for, it could be that we might be throwing out something that may be the better than the status quo.

If Biden enters, HRC might have to re-calibrate her campaign.

[Robbins]

13. Dems don't care

they are proving they don't care what liberals and progressives think.

Soon enough Clinton will return to supporting TPP.Dems are proving they don't care how bad trade deals are.No difference on
wall street anymore.the candiate who says telling them to cut it out is winning.

[SoapBox]

8. Biden + Clinton = Same old, same old.

No hope for any form of real change.

[Attorney in Texas]

14. Sanders' path forward requires consolidating the "not Clinton" vote behind him. Dividing that vote

will kill Sanders' momentum.

Clinton has a huge campaign infrastructure and massive centrist/establishment support, and this is by far the biggest wing of the party.

For an outsider progressive like Sanders to win, he cannot rely on the progressive wing of the party alone because the progressive wing of the party is much smaller than the centrist wing of the party. Sanders needs to add to the progressive wing with the other segments of the party who may chose a candidate other than Clinton (the "no dynasty" voters, the moderate Democrats who have been turned against Clinton by the M$M/GOP smear campaign, the pro-gun-rights Democrats who think Clinton has gone too far on that issue, etc.). Biden is seeking to divide that "not Clinton" vote (perhaps "claim" is more accurate than "divide&quot . Sanders cannot get to 50% of the delegates with the "not Clinton" vote divided between him and Biden. Biden cannot get to 50% of the delegates unless he takes the progressive vote from Sanders (SPOILER: not going to happen) and consolidates the "not Clinton" vote behind Biden.

Biden's only path to the nomination is a brokered convention where the VP has an advantage (and Sanders definitely comes in third in a brokered convention choosing among Clinton, Biden, and Sanders because the convention IS the establishment and so the only choice is whether Clinton or Biden is more establishment).

Clinton is the favorite in this nomination process, and Sanders is the underdog who is doing everything right to pull off an upset. Sanders road to the nomination is a narrow path, and Biden's candidacy makes that pathway much narrower.

[Robbins]

16. it's time we all stop pretending

there is any place for liberals and progressives In Democratic party.

The polls prove Democratic party is right of center and Republican party is far right.

[Attorney in Texas]

17. Should we stop pretending that Warren is the Democratic Senator from Massachusetts? or Al Franken?

or Chris Murphy? etc.?

[Robbins]

19. Al Franken supports Clinton

so by design he also supports as does much of Democratic party

TPP
Free trade deals
Keystone
cuts to Social security,SSI,Medicare,medicaid,and food stamps to get alone and be bi-partisan
More war In Middle east Including war In Iran and shooting russian planes In Syria
Militizan of police
private for profit prison
Letting wall street,big banks,and corporations run wild

[Attorney in Texas]

27. Many progressives support Clinton. Supporting Clinton does not equal abdicating being progressive.

I support Sanders. My wife supports Clinton. We're both progressive.

I think Sanders has about a 20% chance of winning the nomination, and Clinton has about an 80% chance. There is nothing "anti-progressive" about supporting the Democratic front-runner based on the conclusion (as my wife concludes) that the Democratic front-runner stands the best chance as the Democratic standard-bearer in the general election (I don't share that view but I don't feel any obligation to disparage that view as anti-progressive&quot .

If Biden gets into the race, I downgrade Sanders' chance to 10% and Clinton's chance to 75% and give Biden a 15% of coming out of a brokered convention with the nomination.

I don't think that Biden wins the general election if he gets the nomination only as a result of a brokered convention, and I think that Clinton's status as the general election favorite (which she currently is by a significant margin) is hamstrung by a likely-unsuccessful Biden challenge, and Biden's candidacy cuts Sanders' insurgency chances in half. This is a lose-lose-lose situation that reduces Biden to the role of a spoiler. Who wants that as the coda for an otherwise distinguished career?

[Robbins]

28. I disagree

On issues she is no progressive.and unlike 2008 all the vidance is before us.

Her chances in GE has decresed through the year.Plus she can't be trusted to stand with people on issues.

[Attorney in Texas]

31. You appear to disagree with a point I never made. I never said Clinton was progressive. I said a

progressive might choose to support Clinton.

My wife sees it like this:

* Sanders is a good progressive candidate (I agree with my wife)
* Clinton is a good representative of the centrist establishment part of the Democratic Party (I agree)
* Sanders would probably lose the general election to the Republican nominee unless it is Trump or Carson (I disagree)
* Clinton would probably win the general election (I agree)

My wife chooses Clinton because she thinks Clinton is the best insurance against a Bush or Rubio presidency. I disagree, but her logic is not "anti-progressive." It is not "anti-progressive" to believe that Bush or Rubio would fare better in the general election against Sanders as compared to how they would perform against Clinton; I don't share that assessment, but I don't feel the need to label anyone as "anti-progressive" for holding that view.

[Robbins]

32. Many people lose regardless

Wellfare reform gave you idea on what the Clintons think of social safety net.

You can't benefit wall street and want to fight all these wars and not expect cuts to social safety net.as one on them it sure affects me.

all these trade deals will continue to destroy middle and working class

[Attorney in Texas]

33. You must not be married. Otherwise, you would not automatically ascribe Bill's views to Hillary. I

certainly do not agree with my wife all of the time (as I mentioned above, I support Sanders and she supports Clinton).

As a result, I do not know if Hillary supports welfare reform simply because Bill supported it back in the mid-1990s. I agree with you the 1990s welfare reform was disastrous, but so was the Defense of Marriage Act and Don't Ask/Don't Tell, and Hillary certainly does not support that anti-GLBT legislation and policy which Bill supported two decades ago.

[Robbins]

34. The clintons always supported each other policys

She worked to get his programs passed and in past used first lady as part of his exceperence for being president.

She only fliped on gay issues when it was popular to do so.

Yes i do know people In same family can support different cnadiates.I am saying CLinton is no progressive.and for supporting her anyone who does is supporting anti-progressive things.

[winter is coming]

12. I just wish he'd make up his mind, one way or the other. n/t

[geek tragedy]

22. Biden faceplanted his two previous runs for President.

Is there any reason to think he's gotten better at it?

[rjsquirrel]

26. I am internally divided between

thinking this is colossal stupidity or just plain old dumbass stupidity.

Joe, go home. You're dreaming again. You offer nothing anyone will get excited about.

[Beacool]

29. Biden is a good and decent man.

But running for president is not the proper venue for grief counseling. He performed dismally the two times he ran in the past. Like someone else said, he has a tendency to run his mouth before his brain catches up. He'll be 74 years old on election day.

Is he thinking of entering the race because he honestly thinks that he has something to contribute or because his son asked him to do so before he died?