Payroll employment rises by 271,000 in October; jobless rate essentially unchanged (5.0%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Fri Dec 4, 2015, 09:59 AM - Edit history (9)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic News Release

Employment Situation Summary USDL-15-2125

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, November 6, 2015

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2015


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate (5.0 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (7.9 million) were essentially unchanged in October. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.7 percentage point and 1.1 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
....

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.1 million in October and has shown little change since June. These individuals accounted for 26.8 percent of the unemployed in October. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.4 percent in October, following a decline of 0.2 percentage point in September. The employment-population ratio, at 59.3 percent, changed little in October and has shown little movement over the past year. (See table A-1.)
....

In October, 1.9 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 276,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

....
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $25.20, following little change in September (+1 cent). Hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 9 cents to $21.18 in October. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +136,000 to +153,000, and the change for September was revised from +142,000 to +137,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 187,000 per month.

_____________
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 4, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

[font color="red"]These will be the talking points:

1) the increase in employment was well above ADP's figure of 182,000 released two days ago, and estimates elsewhere,
2) hourly wages rose by 9 cents,
3) the labor force participation rate was unchanged, at 62.4 percent,
4) the increases in employment for August and September were revised in opposite directions, for a total gain of 12,000 jobs,
5) the civilian noninstitutional population not in the labor force went from 94,610,000 in September to 94,513,000 in October, a decrease of 97,000, and
6) because of the strong gain in employment, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December has increased.[/font]

The interest rate in question is the federal funds target rate, if I am not mistaken. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Federal funds rate

The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.


[center]Introduction[/center]

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our good friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so I am absolutely delighted to have you participate in this thread. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

Full disclosure: I do not work for BLS, nor am I friends with anyone over there. I'm just someone who appreciates the work they do. My sole connection with the agency is that I've been in the building to pick up some publications.

Thank you for being a part of this thread.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

It is easy to find one paragraph, or one sentence, or one datum in this report that will support the most outlandish of conclusions, from "the sky is falling" to "we'll have blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on." Easy, but disingenuous.

Every month, you can find something in the report that will cause you concern. Take the information in context. Consider not just this month’s data, but the trend.

Please take the time to look at progree's not-to-be-missed thread containing his thoughtful analysis, updated monthly. Here is the latest version:

Economy facts with links to official sources, rev 11/7/15.

This month, he also presented his analysis in the 11th reply in this thread:

Over the past month, over the past year, and since February 2010

Thank you so much for that, progree.

Let's begin with a couple of questions:


[center]What Is the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
Why Are They Releasing All These Numbers Every Month?[/center]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS is a governmental statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the Department of Labor, and conducts research into how much families need to earn to be able to enjoy a decent standard of living.

The BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, and impartiality in both subject matter and presentation. To avoid the appearance of partiality, the dates of major data releases are scheduled more than a year in advance, in coordination with the Office of Management and Budget.

Note carefully those words: "accuracy," "quality," and "impartiality."


[center]Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey[/center]

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[center][font color="red"]New Section: Complaint Department[/font][/center]

I post this information on a nonpartisan basis. I am not here to make elected officials of any party or persuasion look good. I am certain that the people who compile these data are of the same outlook. They are civil servants. They do not work for a party; they work for you, the American people.

My only contribution is to cut and paste a few paragraphs from the BLS and then, in the commentary, link to some sources that I feel are trustworthy. I hope people come away with a better understanding of the data after reading this thread. Once again, I do not work for BLS, but I will nonetheless try to assist if I can.

If you feel the Bureau of Labor Statistics is handing out bunk, start here:

Point of Contact for Complaints Concerning Information Quality

Affected persons who believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has disseminated information that does not meet its guidelines or those of the Department of Labor or Office of Management and Budget, and who wish to file a formal complaint may send their complaint by mail, e-mail, or fax to:

Division of Management Systems
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E., Room 4080
Washington, D.C., 20212-0001
E-mail: [e-mail]
Fax: [phone]

Complainants should:

Identify themselves and indicate where and how they can be reached;
Identify, as specifically as possible, the information in question;
Indicate how they are affected by the information about which they are complaining;
Carefully describe the nature of the complaint, including an explanation of why they believe the information does not comply with OMB, Departmental, or agency-specific guidelines; and
Describe the change requested and the reason why the agency should make the change.

Failure to include this information may result in a complainant not receiving a response to the complaint or greatly reducing the usefulness or timeliness of any response. Complainants should be aware that they bear the burden of establishing that they are affected persons and showing the need and justification for the correction they are seeking, including why the information being complained about does not comply with applicable guidelines.

[center]We Got the Beat.[/center]

October Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know

October Hiring Was Year’s Strongest

7:54 am ET
Nov 6, 2015
Markets



-AP

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. Jobs Friday, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that the economy added 183,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.0%. In September, the economy added 142,000, and the unemployment rate was 5.1%.

Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we will crunch the numbers, track the markets and compile the commentary before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to continue the conversation in the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

You forgot to say "Enjoy the show." After a brief foray in the "Politics & Policy" section, this blog has returned to the "Markets" section. I do not know what sort of internal intrigue this indicates.

Before we do anything else, let's give credit to the workers behind the MoneyBeat blog:

The MoneyBeat Team:

Stephen Grocer
Editor

Phillipa Leighton-Jones
European Editor

Erik Holm
Deputy Editor

Maureen Farrell
Reporter, New York

Paul Vigna
Reporter, New York

David Cottle
Reporter, London

Kristen Scholer
Reporter, New York

Giles Turner
Reporter, London

MoneyBeat Columnists

Ronald Barusch
Dealpolitik

[font color="red"]off this assignment:
Francesco Guerrera
Current Account[/font]

[font color="red"]off this assignment:
Alen Mattich[/font]

Jason Zweig
The Intelligent Investor

[font color="red"]off this assignment:
Michael J. Casey
Horizons [/font]

E. S. Browning

Here's one comment:

8:47 am

Stronger case for December liftoff
by Ben Leubsdorf

Friday’s strong jobs report for October makes a Fed rate increase in December much more likely.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said earlier this week that the Dec. 15-16 policy meeting was a “live possibility” for a rate increase if “incoming information” supported expectations for continued economic growth “sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and to return inflation to our 2% target over the medium term.” The 271,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls represented a big rebound from the slower pace of job gains in recent months that the Fed had flagged in its Oct. 28 policy statement. The unemployment rate of 5.0% was a notch closer to Fed officials’ 4.9% median projection for its normal long-run level. And average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 2.5% on the year, a definite pickup from the sluggish pace since the recession ended.

[center]How Do You Define Unemployment?
The Large Print Giveth, and the Fine Print Taketh Away.[/center]

Long ago, a DUer pointed out that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here is that link:

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Also, hat tip, Recursion: How the Government Measures Unemployment

[font color="red"]New material: This link might not work for everyone. See progree's tips.[/font] From the July 20, 2015, issue of Barron's:

Refresher Course: Inside the Jobless Numbers

Are we undercounting the unemployment numbers—or overcounting? How the BLS gathers and calculates the numbers, and why it matters.

By Gene Epstein
July 18, 2015

The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention from the markets and the media as it is now, sparked by the keen interest taken in its monthly fluctuations by policy makers at the Federal Reserve.

Despite the heightened focus, there are a lot of misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the rate is calculated. Some people assume the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the rate from the unemployment-insurance rolls. On that basis, they fault the BLS for undercounting the unemployed. But that’s just one myth among many about this cornerstone measure of economic pain and labor-market slack.

To estimate the unemployment rate, the BLS actually relies on the monthly Current Population Survey conducted for it by the Census Bureau. While the data are highly imperfect in their own way, we think the Federal Reserve is right to view the official unemployment rate as the best available information, while also keeping its eye on ancillary measures of “labor underutilization.”

In fact, a close look at BLS methods suggests that, if anything, the official unemployment rate may be overcounting rather than undercounting the unemployed.

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] In August 2015, DUers whatthehey and progree got into a 1995 report from Bregger and Haugen. The .pdf is unfortunately an image and thus challenging as a source of quotes. Trying to find it in a format that does make for easy copying, I was led to this:

Alternative Unemployment Rates: Their Meaning and Their Measure March 12, 2014


[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 182,000 Jobs in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 142,000 in September; unemployment rate remains at 5.1%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 200,000 Jobs in September

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 173,000 in August; unemployment rate edges down to 5.1%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 190,000 Jobs in August

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 215,000 in July; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 185,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 223,000 in June; unemployment rate declines to 5.3%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 237,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 280,000 in May; unemployment rate essentially unchanged (5.5%)

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 201,000 Jobs in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2015:

Payroll employment rises by 223,000 in April; jobless rate essentially unchanged (5.4%)

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 169,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2015:

Payroll employment increases by 126,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.5%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 189,000 Jobs in March


[center]Why Won't You Talk About the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)?[/center]

Every month at a certain site that will remain unnamed, someone will cite the labor force participation rate as a cause for concern. Let's look at that right now.

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] This July 2014 report from the Council of Economic Advisers addresses that:

THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE SINCE 2007: CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

(Hat tip, Adrahil: Look deeper.)

[font color="red"]Even newer material:[/font] Here's a Power Point (or equivalent) presentation given by Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, before the National Press Club on August 6, 2015. If you go to the next-to-the-last slide, you'll see that the long-term projected trend is down:

"Trends in Labor Force Participation", 8/6/15

(Hat tip, progree: Over the past month, over the past year, and since February 2010)


[center]Nattering Nabobs of Negativism[/center]

[font color="red"]Revised material:[/font] Here’s a grim thought:

Fed economists: America’s missing workers are not coming back

Wonkblog

By Max Ehrenfreund September 12 {2014}

A paper by Federal Reserve staff that will be discussed at the Brookings Institution on Friday {September 12, 2014} possibly hints at the central bank's thinking on interest rates and employment in advance of a consequential Fed meeting next week. The findings support [links:http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-rate-hike-debate-heating-up-1408557628|hawks] on the Federal Open Market Committee, who feel that the Fed needs to prepare to raise rates sooner than expected, although the results are still being debated and might not persuade the committee's more dovish members.

The paper discusses the number of people who consider themselves part of the workforce -- including both people who have a job and those who are looking for work. It is a measure of the total manpower available in the U.S. economy. This number, the labor force participation rate, has been decreasing steadily since 2000. Americans who can't find work have been leaving the workforce, as have more and more retirees as the population ages.

Let’s follow that with another grim thought:

Why wage growth disparity tells the story of America's half-formed economic recovery

By Chico Harlan November 21, 2014
@chicoharlan
[e-mail]

....
With unemployment down to 5.8 percent, the country’s half-formed recovery is often described with a convenient shorthand: We have jobs but little wage growth. But stagnancy is just an average, and for many Americans, the years since the financial crisis have pushed them farther from the line, according to a detailed analysis of government labor statistics by The Washington Post.
....

Among the winners in this climate: Older workers, women and those with finance and technology jobs. ... Among the losers: Part-timers, the young, men, and those in the health, retail and food industries.
....

Chico Harlan covers personal economics as part of The Post's financial team.

Dissenters, take note:

A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate

David Leonhardt
AUG. 26, 2014

The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report has been the subject of some wacky conspiracy theories. None was wackier than the suggestion from Jack Welch, the former General Electric chief executive, that government statisticians were exaggerating job growth during President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Both Republican and Democratic economists dismissed those charges as silly.

But to call the people who compile the jobs report honest, nonpartisan civil servants is not to say that the jobs report is perfect. The report tries to estimate employment in a big country – and to do so quickly, to give policy makers, business executives and everyone else a sense of how the economy is performing. It’s a tough task.

And it has become tougher, because Americans are less willing to respond to surveys than they used to be.

A new academic paper suggests that the unemployment rate appears to have become less accurate over the last two decades, in part because of this rise in nonresponse. In particular, there seems to have been an increase in the number of people who once would have qualified as officially unemployed and today are considered out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for work.

[center]On the Road Again[/center]

The DOL Newsletter - October 6, 2011

DOL Data: There's an App for That
Have an iPhone, iPod Touch or Android phone? Now you can access the latest labor data and news from the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration in the palm of your hand. The latest free mobile app displays real-time updates to the unemployment rate, Unemployment Insurance initial claims, the Consumer Price Index, payroll employment, average hourly earnings, the Producer Price Index, the Employment Cost Index, productivity, the U.S. Import Price Index and the U.S. Export Price Index in real time, as they are published each week, month or quarter. News releases providing context for the data can also be accessed through the app and viewed within a mobile browser or as PDF documents.

US Labor Department launches economic and employment statistics app

Smartphone users gain mobile access to latest labor data and news

WASHINGTON — The most up-to-date employment data and economic news releases from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics and its Employment and Training Administration now can be viewed using a new mobile application.
....

The new app is currently available for the iPhone and iPod Touch as well as Android phones. The Labor Department is working to develop versions for BlackBerry and iPad devices. Visit http://m.dol.gov/apps/ to download this and other mobile apps.

Download the Data, Other Mobile Apps


[center]A Few More Things[/center]

Meet FRED, every wonk’s secret weapon

Storyline ? Meet the wonks

By Todd C. Frankel August 1, 2014

FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It serves as an online clearinghouse for a wealth of numbers: unemployment rates, prices of goods, GDP and CPI, things common and obscure. Today, FRED is more than a little bit famous, thanks to the public’s fascination with economic data.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

(Note new link for Jobs Calculator™. Hat tip, progree.)

Monthly Employment Reports from BLS

The U.S. Census Bureau has its own releases:

U.S. Census Bureau Latest News

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators

For people who need a daily fix:

BLS-Labor Statistics Twitter feed

Read tomorrow's news before it happens. The schedule for all economic reports:

MarketWatch Economic Calendar[font color="red"]

[leftynyc]

1. Wow - jobs report way higher

than expected (expectation was 180K on CNN). Looks like that rate hike just became much more likely in December.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Based on the past monthlies, that is a jump.

Gotta go through and check past revisions (Edit - you got those now). Some of the business personalities were really focussing on this to get an idea on whether the Fed would raise interest rates by the end of this year.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. TWSJ.: Monthly Jobs Report, by the Numbers

The Numbers: October Jobs Report

8:45 am EST Nov 6, 2015
By Jeffrey Sparshott
[e-mail]
@jeffsparshott

Friday’s job report appears to be the best so far for 2015, marked by brisk hiring, falling unemployment and rising wages. Here are the highlights.

{snip}

Many articles:

The Wall Street Journal.

For example:

Analysis: Report Strengthens Case for December Rate Increase

Unemployment rate of 5.0% is a notch closer to Fed’s median projection for normal long-run level

By Ben Leubsdorf
[e-mail]
@BenLeubsdorf

Updated Nov. 6, 2015 9:06 a.m. ET

The Labor Department’s strong October employment report makes a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in December much more likely.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Wage pressure

I know it's not fast enough, but this is a few years of an improving job market that is going to create upward pressure on wages sooner rather than later. We have a ton of ground to make up in that regard, but it's a great sign.

[progree]

7. "We have a ton of ground to make up (wages) in that regard, but it's a great sign."

I haven't heard that one before. Yes it's sad and maddening that inflation-adjusted wages have barely advanced -- far behind the increase in productivity and the fortunes of the top 1%. But wages haven't fallen under our Kenyan Muslim president (bitter sarcasm) like some on the right and their DU allies would like us to believe. Or even from the pre-recession peak.

Below is the INFLATION ADJUSTED average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees. This doesn't include CEOs or business owners, just people earning a paycheck who are not supervisors or executives.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032



Nominal (not inflation-adjusted) Hourly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008

Hi MKJ, thanks for the thread!

I'll deal with the 94 million jobless people meme later, but for a sneak preview:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1223726

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. Charting the labor market: Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) November 6, 2015

This is from the BLS Twitter feed. The charts are in a from that does not permit cutting and pasting. The Wall Street Journal. will pick these up and put them in a from that does permit cutting and pasting. I'll have that link shortly.

Charting the labor market: Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) November 6, 2015

and another:

Current Employment Statistics Highlights October 2015 Release Date: November 6, 2015

[minidriver]

6. Thanks Obama!

Meanwhile the drones over at the FN channel are trying their best to spin it negatively.
[link:http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/06/watch-fox-news-stumble-through-outstanding-octo/206671|

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. The October Jobs Report in 12 Charts

Here is the article in The Wall Street Journal. that has charts from the BLS in a form that lets you cut and paste. You kids knock yourselves out.

9:47 am ET
Nov 6, 2015
Economy

The October Jobs Report in 12 Charts

By Nick Timiraos and Josh Zumbrun
[e-mail]
@NickTimiraos
[e-mail]
@JoshZumbrun

The economy added more jobs in October than any other month this year and the unemployment rate ticked down to 5%, the lowest reading since April 2008. The monthly jobs report provides a rich snapshot of the state of labor markets. Here’s a look at the latest report.

With 271,000 jobs added in October, plus revisions that showed a net gain of 12,000 jobs than had been previously estimated for August and September, the U.S. economy has averaged 206,000 jobs a month this year. That is the second-highest level since 1999, surpassed only by the 236,000 average jobs added through the first 10 months of last year.

....
As the recovery has progressed, fewer of the unemployed lost their jobs. A growing share of the unemployed are new entrants to the job market or people returning after having left, such as for school or to care for family members.



....
The unemployment rate for people of both genders and all races has continued to come down. During the recession, men experienced higher unemployment rates, but these gaps are narrowing.

[DCBob]

9. The Republicans are running out of reasons why Obama ruined the economy.

Cheers!

[Kingofalldems]

10. Obama is a Communist and a Muslim.

[progree]

11. Over the past month, over the past year, and since February 2010

11/6/15 - Exceptionally superb jobs report this month, at least relative to the last couple of months in particular 271,000 net new payroll employment in October. August and September were revised up by a combined 12,000. So we have only 283,000 more payroll employees than we did in last month's report ( 271 + 12 = 283 ).

Over the past 3 months, employment gains have averaged 187,000 per month. Over the past year, payroll employment has increased by 2,814,000 (an average of 234,000/month). And since the jobs recovery began in March 2010, payroll employment increased by 13,005,000.

The numbers in the below paragraphs come from the Household Survey, which is different from the Establishment Survey that produces the payroll employment number.

(Monthly change figures in the Household Survey are probably best ignored due to volatility caused by statistical noise. That's true in both "good" months and in "bad" months. However, over longer periods of time like a year or more, the monthly zigs and zags will have somewhat averaged out and a more statistically valid trend will emerge.

In particular, year-over-year (12 months) figures should be much better statistically because the current month is being compared to the same month last year, e.g. October vs. October of a year before, and therefore there should be much less error in the seasonal adjustment process -- as both will be adjusted by the same seasonal adjustment factor, and so will cancel out in the comparison. )

[font color = brown] ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table A-1 and other tables can be found at the all-tables full jobs report at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf, or gotten one-at-a-time from the bottom section of http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. For example, Table A-9 alone is at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm )
----------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]


Almost all Household Survey numbers were good or improved in October

Part-time workers who want full time work (aka Part Time For Economic Reasons, Table A-8) fell by 269,000. (This, like all the Household Survey statistics, is very volatile from month to month). Part-time workers who want full-time work has fallen by 1,245,000 over the past 12 months

Very encouragingly, BLS's broadest measure of unemployment -- U-6 -- decreased by 0.2% to 9.8%. It includes in its version of the "labor force" everyone who has looked for a job in the last 12 months (even if just once). And it includes part-timers wanting full-time work. So this is just plain good news. (Unlike the official unemployment rate -- which counts only those who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks as unemployed).

Most or all of the improvement in U-6 in October was driven by the large decrease in part-time workers who want full time work.

And the unemployment rate (5.0%) went down a notch from 5.1%. Despite the labor force going up by 313,000.

The Employed Increased 320,000 in October. (LNS12000000) (Remember this is the Household Survey, a separate survey from the Establishment survey that produced the +271,000 payroll employment figure. The Household Survey is much more volatile and less reliable than the Establishment survey). Anyhoo, the Employed has increase by 1,860,000 over the last 12 months.

The employment to population ratio increased by 0.1% in October. Over the past 12 months it has increased by 0.1%. And since the jobs recovery began, it has increased by 0.8%.

Full-time workers increased by 185,000 in October. This is a volatile data series. You are very UNlikely to see threads about this on DU. The right-wingers and their DU allies only post about this in months when it goes down or makes a weak gain. I post about it every frickin month regardless of whether it goes up, down, or sideways).

Over the past 12 months, full-time workers increased by 2,243,000 (195,000/mo average). And since the jobs recovery began, it has increased by 11,246,000.

The labor force increased by 313,000 -- consisting of 320,000 more employed and 7,000 fewer unemployed. (Remember the official definition of unemployed is jobless people who have looked for work over the past 4 weeks; its not all jobless people who want a job). Over the past 12 months the labor force has grown by 785,000. (LNS11000000). No, that's not very good, that's only a 65,400 / month average increase.


Some Household Survey numbers were not-so-good or bad in October


The labor force participation rate stayed flat at 62.4%, a multi-decade low, and its lowest level since the mid-1970's. ( LNS11300000 ) (The last official explanation I've seen is that half the drop in this rate from 2000 is due to boomer retirements, 1/4 of the drop is due to the still poor economy -- that analysis was written about a year ago -- and 1/4 of the drop is a puzzler).

Here's something recent (August 6), I haven't looked at it yet: "Trends in Labor Force Participation", 8/6/15

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/20150806_labor_force_participation_retirement_research_consortium.pdf )

===========================================

Some key numbers from the Household Survey (note the Household Survey is different from the Establishment Survey that produces the payroll employment of the first paragraph). See below, and see Table A-1 for the main Household Survey numbers - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Exception: the payroll employment numbers and the inflation-adjusted weekly earnings come from the Establishment Survey. I don't include the over-the-last-month figure for inflation-adjusted weekly earnings, because the CPI data needed for the inflation adjustment is not available until later in the month; but I do include them for the longer periods (over the last year and since the payroll employment recovery began)

In the below tables, all "%" ones are percentage point changes, *not* percent increases or decreases. FOR EXAMPLE, when you see something like this:

+0.1% Unemployment rate

It means that the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points (this EXAMPLE is from May 2015 when the unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.5%). This is an increase of 0.1 percentage points, *not* a 0.1% increase. The corresponding percent increase is (5.5-5.4)/5.4 X 100% = +1.9%, i.e. a 1.9% increase. So in summary, IN THIS EXAMPLE, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points, and also increased 1.9%.


[font color=blue]OVER THE LAST MONTH[/font]:
== ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY ==
+271,000 Nonfarm Payroll Employment ( CES0000000001 )
== HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (warning: this survey's monthly change figures are very statistically noisy) ==
+313,000 Labor Force (employed + jobless people who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks)
+320,000 Employed
-7,000 Unemployed (jobless people who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks)
+0.1% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate (it's at 59.3%)
+0.0% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) (at 62.4%)
-0.1% Unemployment rate (it's at 5.0%). Is Unemployed (as defined above) / Labor Force [N864.HM].
-0.2% U-6 unemployment rate (to 9.8%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
+97,000 Not in Labor Force, Wants Job LNS15026639
-269,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+214,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+185,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)

^--Monthly change figures in the Household Survey are probably best ignored due to volatility caused by statistical noise. That's true in both "bad" months and in "good" months

[font color=blue]OVER THE LAST YEAR (last 12 months)[/font]:
==== ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY ====
+2,814,000 Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey, CES0000000001)
+2.11% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is 11 months thru September because no CPI data for October yet
==== HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ========
+785,000 Labor Force
+1,860,000 Employed
-1,075,000 Unemployed
+0.1% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-0.4% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-0.7% Unemployment rate
-1.7% U-6 unemployment rate (fabulous. it includes anyone that looked for work even once in the past year)
-493,000 Not in Labor Force, Wants Job LNS15026639
-1,245,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
-507,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2,343,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)

The reason there's no data for October yet for the Weekly Earnings is because the CPI inflation adjustment number for October is not yet available.

All the "over the last year" numbers are really good numbers except the Labor Force Participation Rate shows a 0.4% DEcrease. Interesting though that there was a 0.1% percentage point increase in the Employment To Population Ratio. The Population being talked about is the civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over, yes, including all elderly people, even centenarians.

Seems to me that there is too much discussion in the media of the Labor Force Participation Rate (the employed plus the jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks, all divided by the population), and not enough attention to what seemingly matters more -- the Employment to Population Ratio. Why aren't we celebrating the increase in the percentage of the population that is employed (the employment to population ratio)-- a figure that has been slowly moving up since the job market bottom, despite the growing wave of baby boomer retirements?


[font color=blue]SINCE THE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY BEGAN -- Last 68 months thru October 31, 2015: 10'15 - 2'10[/font]:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru Oct. 31, 2015)
==== ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY ====
+13,005,000 Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey, CES0000000001)
+3.92% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is thru Sept 2015 because no CPI data for October yet
==== HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ====
+3,334,000 Labor Force
+10,539,000 Employed
-7,205,000 Unemployed
+0.8% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate (woo hoo!)
-2.5% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) (ughh)
-4.8% Unemployment rate
-7.2% U-6 unemployment rate
-46,000 Not in Labor Force, Wants Job LNS15026639
-3,169,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
-444,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+11,246,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)

[font color=blue]Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Jobs, as % of All Employed[/font]
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]Oct'14 Jul'15 Sep'15 Oct'15
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]4.8% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9%


A graph of part-time and full-time workers (this is through June 2015)

CLARIFICATION: in the above, these are part-time workers and full-time workers, not part-time jobs and full-time jobs.

This excellent post from early July show two perspectives of the trends in part-time workers and full-time workers (not part-time jobs and full-time jobs). Thanks mahatmakanejeeves
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141134306#post12


The links to the data above
# Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000
# Employed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194
# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000
# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

########################################################################
FFI on the most recent jobs report, straight from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age (household survey) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Several graphs of the key economic stats -- http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf

The whole enchilada -- including all 16 "A" tables (the household survey) and all 9 "B" tables (the establishment survey) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

[font color = brown] ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table A-1 and other tables can be found at the all-tables full jobs report at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf, or gotten one-at-a-time from the bottom section of http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm . For example, Table A-9 alone is at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm )
----------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]

BLS Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

The Council of Economic Advisors' Take on the Jobs Report
https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/11/06/employment-situation-october . (find this at http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea and look for the last "The Employment Situation in" post). Or Google what's in between the {}'s: {site:whitehouse.gov employment situation in October}

Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner's Corner: http://beta.bls.gov/labs/blogs/ Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BLS_gov